The Nebraska situation shows another reason we need to get rid of the Electoral College. Looking to change the rules about who gets their electoral votes this close to the election is ridiculous. And don’t get me started on what’s going on in Georgia. Why does voting get so complicated? Republicans?
With the race shaping up to be brutally close, the Dems must seal the deal in NC. With Mark Robinson hanging like a gigantic albatross around his neck, Trump should be very vulnerable there. I hope the DNC uses ad buys aplenty in NC to remind voters there of what a sorry creature Trump has hitched his wagon to.
"The House would be charged with picking the president while the Senate would choose the vice president."
Am I reading this right? If neither candidate reaches 270 and the House turns Blue while the Senate turns Red, could we really wind up with a Harris/Vance administration? Perish the thought 😳
As I understand the rule, it wouldn't matter if the House turned blue. Each state would simply get one vote. And the Republicans would control the majority of the states.
I think that New York Times - Sienna poll is an outlier using some strange methodologies. Last week's poll showed Trump and Harris tied nationally, though Harris 4 points ahead in Pennsylvania. Every other poll showed her 2. - 5 point's ahead.
"Partisans are predicting that every story is THE ONE that is going to break the race wide open."
Gee, as an old political hand I read, hear from and talk with partisans every single day. This year I have NEVER heard anyone suggest that anything "is going to break the race wide open." Not anyone. Not any time. Not anything.
Here’s a thought experiment I like. People all over the country begin to smell an awful stench that wakes them up. They realize that it is the GOP and even die hard Republicans can’t hold their nose and vote for Donald and JD and this foul do nothing congress. Those that can, vote for the Blue candidates and those that can’t just stay home this Election Day.
While I concur with the previous comments about getting rid of the electoral college, now that we know for sure that NE-2 might be counted for Harris, I have to point out the one fact everyone seems to miss, all this Nebraska concern is worthless if ME-2 goes for Harris—and current polling says that is highly probable. While ME-2 is solidly Republican for state candidates, their national candidate picks are more moderate. Obama twice won the district easily and Trump underperformed both in 2016 and 2020.
While current pulling in Maine is limited, aside from one low quality poll that shows an even race, three other polls show Harris at 50% and outside the margin of error. Bottom line, if Harris wins all of Maine's electoral votes in your scenario, she doesn't need Nebraska to hit 270.
Good morning Chris. Interesting chart of people living near their parents. My father died in 2006 and my mom in 2010, but in 1996, I moved into a house two doors from their house and the house I grew up in and I still reside their today. This is very prevalent in western Pennsylvania and many, many years ago, Life Magazine profiled a street in Mc Kees Rocks, just outside of Pittsburgh where every house on the street was inhabited by members of the same family !
That's super interesting. Incidentally my forecast gives this scenario about 1/100 chance of happening which is actually significantly higher than other forecasts:
The Nebraska situation shows another reason we need to get rid of the Electoral College. Looking to change the rules about who gets their electoral votes this close to the election is ridiculous. And don’t get me started on what’s going on in Georgia. Why does voting get so complicated? Republicans?
Getting rid of the EC is next to impossible. You’d need a Const Amendment to be passed by a 2/3rds vote and ratified by 3/4 of the states.
Agreed. But it’s still ridiculous that we don’t have a popular vote for president
True
I don't know what political reporters want to see more- 269-269 or a contested convention.
The NYT trying to bring down every Long Island Republican Congressman is my favorite running gag.
With the race shaping up to be brutally close, the Dems must seal the deal in NC. With Mark Robinson hanging like a gigantic albatross around his neck, Trump should be very vulnerable there. I hope the DNC uses ad buys aplenty in NC to remind voters there of what a sorry creature Trump has hitched his wagon to.
The Lincoln Project just dropped great news ad about Trump and Robinson. Check their YouTube channel. It's awesome
"The House would be charged with picking the president while the Senate would choose the vice president."
Am I reading this right? If neither candidate reaches 270 and the House turns Blue while the Senate turns Red, could we really wind up with a Harris/Vance administration? Perish the thought 😳
As I understand the rule, it wouldn't matter if the House turned blue. Each state would simply get one vote. And the Republicans would control the majority of the states.
I think that New York Times - Sienna poll is an outlier using some strange methodologies. Last week's poll showed Trump and Harris tied nationally, though Harris 4 points ahead in Pennsylvania. Every other poll showed her 2. - 5 point's ahead.
"Partisans are predicting that every story is THE ONE that is going to break the race wide open."
Gee, as an old political hand I read, hear from and talk with partisans every single day. This year I have NEVER heard anyone suggest that anything "is going to break the race wide open." Not anyone. Not any time. Not anything.
Here’s a thought experiment I like. People all over the country begin to smell an awful stench that wakes them up. They realize that it is the GOP and even die hard Republicans can’t hold their nose and vote for Donald and JD and this foul do nothing congress. Those that can, vote for the Blue candidates and those that can’t just stay home this Election Day.
While I concur with the previous comments about getting rid of the electoral college, now that we know for sure that NE-2 might be counted for Harris, I have to point out the one fact everyone seems to miss, all this Nebraska concern is worthless if ME-2 goes for Harris—and current polling says that is highly probable. While ME-2 is solidly Republican for state candidates, their national candidate picks are more moderate. Obama twice won the district easily and Trump underperformed both in 2016 and 2020.
While current pulling in Maine is limited, aside from one low quality poll that shows an even race, three other polls show Harris at 50% and outside the margin of error. Bottom line, if Harris wins all of Maine's electoral votes in your scenario, she doesn't need Nebraska to hit 270.
Good morning Chris. Interesting chart of people living near their parents. My father died in 2006 and my mom in 2010, but in 1996, I moved into a house two doors from their house and the house I grew up in and I still reside their today. This is very prevalent in western Pennsylvania and many, many years ago, Life Magazine profiled a street in Mc Kees Rocks, just outside of Pittsburgh where every house on the street was inhabited by members of the same family !
That's super interesting. Incidentally my forecast gives this scenario about 1/100 chance of happening which is actually significantly higher than other forecasts:
https://www.thebreakdownpoint.com/p/the-breakdown-points-2024-election