Democrats are in deep denial about Joe Biden

And it could cost them.

(President Joe Biden)

On Thursday night, on Twitter, I posted this:

Biden favorable in new CNN poll: 35%

Gut punch

And I linked to the poll where that number came from — a new CNN national survey.

The reaction was swift.

Outlier poll, some screamed. Others pointed out the famous "don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative” Biden-ism.

The overall tenor was one of DEEP defensiveness. Biden is doing great, people insisted. Stop trying to drag him down!¹

Which, well, just isn’t born out by the numbers.

Let’s go through a few, shall we?

1. Biden approval rating. FiveThirtyEight pegs it at 41.8%. Real Clear Politics has it at 42.3%.

   Which, Biden advocates will note, is not 35%. True! But it’s also not very good. Look at how Biden’s current approval ratings compares to other presidents at this same time in their term, according to Gallup, which, by the way, has Biden at 37% approval.

   Donald Trump: 45% approval

   Barack Obama: 43% approval

   George W. Bush: 70% approval

   Bill Clinton: 51% approval

   So, Biden’s approval rating is BY FAR the lowest at this point of the five most recent presidents — including Donald Trump who went on to lose his reelection bid.

2. Biden running again. Large swaths of the public — including lots of Democrats — do NOT want Biden to run again.

   An NBC poll from April showed 70%(!) of voters did not want Biden to run again. That number included a majority — 51% — of Democrats.

   When asked why they would prefer Biden not seek a second term, almost half (48%) said his advanced age — Biden is 80 — was a “major” factor in their thinking. Another 21% said age was a “minor” factor while 29% said it wasn’t a factor at all.

   And the NBC poll isn’t an outlier. An AP survey released last month showed that just 26% of people wanted Biden to run again. Less than half of Democrats (47%) said the same.

3. Biden’s age is an issue. As I noted earlier this week, a new NPR/PBS/Marist College survey showed that 62% of voters said Biden’s mental fitness is a real concern for them as they consider the 2024 race. That includes 69% of independent voters.

   This paragraph, in particular, taken from the NPR writeup of the poll, has to worry Biden and his team:

   Several key Democratic and swing groups saw Biden's mental fitness as a real concern, including those 45 or younger (69%), GenZ/Millennials (67%), men (66%), those without college degrees (66%), non-whites (64%) and those who live in the suburbs (63%)

Are ALL those data points outliers? No, not they aren’t.

What’s obvious here is that Biden has real and significant weaknesses as he approaches his reelection race. And simply ignoring them won’t make them go away.

To be clear: Biden is going to be the Democratic presidential nominee. That same CNN poll that showed his approval rating at 35% gave him a 40 point primary lead over Robert Kennedy Jr., his closest primary challenger.

Biden and his team did a very good job of keeping any serious primary challengers away and, at this point, it’s very hard for me to see the likes of California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer getting into the race.

But, Biden’s weaknesses are real — and lasting. He is in a decidedly unenviable poll position as he enters the general election.

Democrats’ answer to that reality is to a) ignore it or b) dismiss it.

Their dismissal is largely rooted in the belief that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for president and that, surely, the American public would never elect him again.

To which I say: Maybe!

Look, there’s no question that Trump’s numbers are not good — particularly among women and independent voters. And that the possibility of further indictments — in the classified documents case and/or the George election meddling case — seems unlikely to improve his standing among those voters.

At the same time, most general election polling I’ve seen suggests that a Biden-Trump race would start off as something close to a toss up.

The closeness of the race belies the massive confidence Democrats seem to have about Biden’s ability to beat Trump.

Yes, Biden has done it before — which absolutely counts for something. And, also yes, as I mentioned above, I think Trump is more damaged with key constituencies today than he was in 2020.

But, Biden is now the incumbent. And, theoretically, the 2024 election will be a referendum on his four years in office.². And the polling data is clear on that front: The American people are not happy!

None of this is to say Biden will definitely lose next November. What it is to say is that Democrats — or at least a chunk of them — are in MAJOR denial when it comes to Biden’s prospects.

He is a weak incumbent right now. And were it not for Trump’s presence in the race, there would be a LOT more focus on that fact.

1. My job as a journalist isn’t to root for a side — or to prop some up or drag them down.

2. Trump’s scenery-chewing presence complicates that somewhat. Republicans would love for 2024 to be a straight referendum on Biden but Trump’s antics may not allow it.