Horse race stuff. The polls. The columnists. Horse race stuff. I care more about the issues, and how those issues are handled. I'm a retired businessperson & investor, who is a Democrat. I care greatly about climate change, the economy, foreign relations, jobs, integrity in government. President Biden has managed those issues very well, indeed. He has surrounded himself with highly capable assistants and cabinet secretaries. I love the recovery fromTrump and the pandemic. Why, oh why, would I want to change candidates???
The “Democrats are afraid Biden is in trouble” story is laughable. Any campaign consultant worth their salt knows candidate ratings outside the context of actual races are meaningless. As long as Trump is the Republican nominee, Biden has nothing to worry about. Hatred and anger toward Trump will drive turnout for Biden whether people like him or not. In contrast, almost no one is voting for Trump because they hate Biden--he simply doesn’t inspire that kind of passion. That’s why Biden, despite his age, is the perfect Democratic candidate for this polarized moment.
1. For thousands of years, people believe "...the grass is always greener on the other side of the hill..." and,
2. Democrats, for a number of years, often seem to engage in the practice of "...eating their young..." - nothing or no one is ever good enough. There is always better, and they very publically denigrate what they have, outline all of the reasons they do not like their current choice (making it easier for the opponent of their current choice at the same time), ignore all of the good they have with their current choice, and convince themselves they can do better, sometimes with the result of depressing their own voter turnout.
To me, both are reflected in the polling results.
The choice in front of us is so not about Biden or another Democrat - the choice is between Democracy or Authoritarianism; the rule of law or chaos. Dems have to stop their old practices - in this case, the grass is not greener on the other side of the hill - it is charred and dead.
Chris, I trust completely your reporting on this in that it reflects the current state of affairs. But let's not be prisoners of the moment . No one appears to be a likely replacement because Biden hasn't stepped aside. My view is that , although he has been a very successful POTUS, he is a very weak candidate for re-election. Sounds like LBJ, who was very successful but had the war as a weight around his neck. LBJ stepped aside -- and he did so after the NH primary. There's plenty of time. Biden has his age and Hunter. If he stepped aside, there would be a ready audience looking for a candidate and plenty of money to contribute to beat Trump. Whitmer, to name one, is a great Governor and skilled campaigner. She won in a rust belt state with a margin better than Biden's in Michigan. And in this cycle, a woman would be a perfect candidate.
But wait, I keep hearing/reading people who cite LBJ as a Dem president who stepped aside as a candidate for re-election. Yes, he did step aside, but then Hubert Humphrey was defeated by Richard Nixon. Yes, different times and different candidates, but I agree with those who fear that another Dem candidate, though without the weakness of age, would have other weaknesses.
Yes, Humphrey lost. LBJ's situation is not cited b/c of the result, but rather as an example of a POTUS realizing his vulnerabilities and stepping aside. Nixon's pledge to end the war and the upheaval during the Chicago convention are very different circumstances than what we now face. But you are right to note the uncertainty regarding what downsides a new candidate would present. What we know is that Biden's poll numbers have been negative for a long time and his "match-up" numbers against Trump are weak. Questions about the wisdom of having someone in his mid-80s in the world's most demanding job are not going away. I think someone like Gov Whitmer would garner huge support . But it's all moot if Biden won't step aside. So his team must do a better job of touting his many successes and showing him to be vital.
So, since you're such a brilliant political genius, tell us please how the party gears up in the next six months for a competitive primary that doesn't make things worse?
It's more insane that a major party candidate who's running to be the President has been impeached twice , convicted once and criminally indicted four times and could be criminally convicted before the general election.Wow!!
Exactly. Biden has done a very good job. But the Democrats & sensible Independents need to vote like their lives depend on it because in many ways, it does. Until we squash the MAGAts, our entire way of life and this Country are in danger. I also believe Biden has an excellent argument in his statement - "Don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the Alternative."
"Convicted" of what? I think he WILL be, but right now what we can say is that he has been held LIABLE in CIVIL cases. He hasn't been "convicted" of anything.
Your sons stunned into silence when asked where the DO want to eat: My daughter is infamous in the family for being steadfastly indecisive. One night we had a father/daughter night out, and she didn't like the restaurants I was suggesting. I decided to force her to make a choice. I aimed the car at a restaurant row in town, and announced that I was not stopping until she made a decision and told me where to go. We darned near crossed the state, until I relented and made the choice.
I say let's stop at the Biden Bistro. They know us there. We like the menu. It's good enough. Let's not cross the state in indecision.
This is asinine - I hate the saying “it is what it is”, but that’s where we are. Instead of living in fantasy world, let’s start shouting from the rooftops, “Joe Biden is a decent man. He is experienced and he’s done good things in his first term. The entire opposition party at this point in time stands for autocracy, racism, misogyny, climate change denial, and chaos. Vote Democratic.”
Maybe I’m misunderstanding the premise of the post. Biden is the incumbent president, so can’t be replaced unless he agrees to it. If he was not running I would be very happy with Gretchen Whitmer, Amy Klobuchar, Andy Beshear or Josh Shapiro. Maura Healey and Wes Moore look like they could be great candidates in 2028 in addition to the other four.
Nancy Pelosi just announced she’s running for re-election. At 83, she’s sharper than McCarthy certainly, or any other Republican. At 80, so is Joe Biden.
There are plenty of great Democrats waiting in the wings. Newsom, Whitmer, Warren, etc. But in politics you don’t fix what isn’t broken. Incumbent advantage is everything in politics and Democrats would be out of their minds to give it away.
Won't the reasoning ultimately be: what we have may not be what we want but the alternative will be much much worse. A Harris Trump duel is uncertain at best and there are no others. So a Trump presidency is still very much on the horizon. Let's Just do whatever it takes to prevent that. .please!!!
I do agree, Chris. I would have liked to have seen Joe step aside on his own terms. He was the bridge candidate in 2020, to take us out of the Trump fiasco (being polite!) and getting the country back on track. I took that to mean that he would not be running again. The Democratic Party did not look elsewhere and hung their hat with Biden. So, here we are. Since this is what we have, I pray that Biden does succeed and wins the election. Democracy can not withstand another 4 years of Trump. I sure hope that in the next 4 years, the democrats pull it together to have a strong bench in 2028. Kamala may be running, assuming she will as that is what generally happens. If the country does not embrace her, the GOP may well win the White House and most likely a Trumpy candidate.
True enough. For decades, when Rs get power , they run up the deficit and de-regulate us into a disaster- e.g., Bush's financial crisis and Trump's Covid debacle. Then, Ds get in and need to clean up the mess
Of course they do. Not instantly. But if Biden were out of the picture, there are perfectly viable possibilities, many of whom would need some time and money to establish themselves. A bit late in the game now, if Biden dropped out, but hardly impossible. For example, there are a number of governors of key states who are relatively moderate and I think would make good general election candidates.
Exactly right. LBJ dropped out after the NH primary b/c he knew he was very vulnerable. It's not too late, and we'd rally around any number of candidates. The people on this and other sites who say "don't worry" need to pay attention to the polls and talk to people who are not die hard Ds. The plain truth is Biden is not in a strong position despite his several great achievements. The weights around his neck are his age ( and how he presents at this age) and Hunter, and neither issue is going away. We can't risk another Trump term.
As long as Trump is the alternative, Biden's age shouldn't be an issue, though it will probably continue to be one regardless. As for Hunter, the GOP and Trump would just invent something else to hang around another candidate.
You win and lose POTUS elections with the people in the middle. The risk you have with Biden is that the issues presented are enough to cause low info voters to stay home or middle of the road voters to go with a 3rd party. BTW, the issues with Hunter aren't invented. His influence peddling was shameful and unethical. Is it criminal? Certainly not as to Joe. But it muddies the waters enough for some to say "a pox on both" and stay home or vote 3rd party.
You know what I mean, the supposed link between Hunter and his father. That is what is invented. There is also the issue of a known quantity versus a lesser-known quantity. Biden was elected precisely to make America boring again, and he has good people around him. People are less than satisfied with a range of things right now. This will all come more into focus next year.
My point was that the Hunter issue is not made from whole cloth. His actions created a problem for Joe. I agree that the Biden admin is made up of quality people. I also think Joe's performance has been quite good. I don't share your optimism about things looking better next year , but I hope you're correct. Thanks for the exchange
And even if Biden was out, the GOP has turner right so harshly, it needs to be cutter out of politics until they have a "normal" program, or at least one olicy idea that is other than " lrt's Just oppose democrats for the sake of it ..
Joe Biden's entire campaign seems to be based on the argument that "I'm not HIM". Maybe it'll win, maybe it won't, but it's a pretty lame strategy, the way I see it.
He’s running on his track record, which is highly substantial, so maybe you missed that? Don’t feel bad, the perception that he’s sitting in his basement watching daytime TV while others do the job has traction. So does most of the bullshit that comes out of Trump’s yap. Doesn’t make it true.
Spare me the sarcasm. If we’re both here, odds are that we both follow politics. I’m fully aware of what the President has done. The problem I have is that he doesn’t play that up. At all. He has effectively ceded the playing field to the Republicans. They’re being allowed to define the next election and what the issues will be. You know what I want to hear him discuss? ABORTION. The hyper-politicized Supreme Court. How the next election will allow him (or whoever the President is to appoint one or two Supreme Court Justices (not to mention many lower level judges). The infrastructure bill/law. How it impacts US. He needs to take on the age issue head-on (as Chris has suggested, I believe), instead of ignoring it. He needs to do the same with Hunter Biden’s legal issues. I will absolutely concede that what Hunter Biden did and didn’t do doesn’t mean squat in the context of running the country, but like his age, it can’t be ignored. Too many people think that it does matter.
Horse race stuff. The polls. The columnists. Horse race stuff. I care more about the issues, and how those issues are handled. I'm a retired businessperson & investor, who is a Democrat. I care greatly about climate change, the economy, foreign relations, jobs, integrity in government. President Biden has managed those issues very well, indeed. He has surrounded himself with highly capable assistants and cabinet secretaries. I love the recovery fromTrump and the pandemic. Why, oh why, would I want to change candidates???
The “Democrats are afraid Biden is in trouble” story is laughable. Any campaign consultant worth their salt knows candidate ratings outside the context of actual races are meaningless. As long as Trump is the Republican nominee, Biden has nothing to worry about. Hatred and anger toward Trump will drive turnout for Biden whether people like him or not. In contrast, almost no one is voting for Trump because they hate Biden--he simply doesn’t inspire that kind of passion. That’s why Biden, despite his age, is the perfect Democratic candidate for this polarized moment.
From your keyboard to God's ears!
Two things:
1. For thousands of years, people believe "...the grass is always greener on the other side of the hill..." and,
2. Democrats, for a number of years, often seem to engage in the practice of "...eating their young..." - nothing or no one is ever good enough. There is always better, and they very publically denigrate what they have, outline all of the reasons they do not like their current choice (making it easier for the opponent of their current choice at the same time), ignore all of the good they have with their current choice, and convince themselves they can do better, sometimes with the result of depressing their own voter turnout.
To me, both are reflected in the polling results.
The choice in front of us is so not about Biden or another Democrat - the choice is between Democracy or Authoritarianism; the rule of law or chaos. Dems have to stop their old practices - in this case, the grass is not greener on the other side of the hill - it is charred and dead.
It's insane when you think about it: A major party candidate is running to serve as president of the United States until he's 86.
I wonder if things would be different if the nominee wasn't obviously going to be Trump and Democrats want the guy who beat him before.
Agree. I feel like Biden and Trump are locked in a totally dependent embrace. They each need the other so badly.
Chris, I trust completely your reporting on this in that it reflects the current state of affairs. But let's not be prisoners of the moment . No one appears to be a likely replacement because Biden hasn't stepped aside. My view is that , although he has been a very successful POTUS, he is a very weak candidate for re-election. Sounds like LBJ, who was very successful but had the war as a weight around his neck. LBJ stepped aside -- and he did so after the NH primary. There's plenty of time. Biden has his age and Hunter. If he stepped aside, there would be a ready audience looking for a candidate and plenty of money to contribute to beat Trump. Whitmer, to name one, is a great Governor and skilled campaigner. She won in a rust belt state with a margin better than Biden's in Michigan. And in this cycle, a woman would be a perfect candidate.
But wait, I keep hearing/reading people who cite LBJ as a Dem president who stepped aside as a candidate for re-election. Yes, he did step aside, but then Hubert Humphrey was defeated by Richard Nixon. Yes, different times and different candidates, but I agree with those who fear that another Dem candidate, though without the weakness of age, would have other weaknesses.
Yes, Humphrey lost. LBJ's situation is not cited b/c of the result, but rather as an example of a POTUS realizing his vulnerabilities and stepping aside. Nixon's pledge to end the war and the upheaval during the Chicago convention are very different circumstances than what we now face. But you are right to note the uncertainty regarding what downsides a new candidate would present. What we know is that Biden's poll numbers have been negative for a long time and his "match-up" numbers against Trump are weak. Questions about the wisdom of having someone in his mid-80s in the world's most demanding job are not going away. I think someone like Gov Whitmer would garner huge support . But it's all moot if Biden won't step aside. So his team must do a better job of touting his many successes and showing him to be vital.
Good points.
So, since you're such a brilliant political genius, tell us please how the party gears up in the next six months for a competitive primary that doesn't make things worse?
Most people on this site engage in civil dialogue. You are the exception. Save the snark for Elon Musk's site
So true...
It's more insane that a major party candidate who's running to be the President has been impeached twice , convicted once and criminally indicted four times and could be criminally convicted before the general election.Wow!!
Exactly. Biden has done a very good job. But the Democrats & sensible Independents need to vote like their lives depend on it because in many ways, it does. Until we squash the MAGAts, our entire way of life and this Country are in danger. I also believe Biden has an excellent argument in his statement - "Don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the Alternative."
"Convicted" of what? I think he WILL be, but right now what we can say is that he has been held LIABLE in CIVIL cases. He hasn't been "convicted" of anything.
Mrs Carrol in New York.
It was a CIVIL suit, as I said. He was not "convicted," he was held LIABLE.
I agree!
As a moderate, Joe is my guy. However, for 2028, I would LOVE to see Amy Klobuchar.
Your sons stunned into silence when asked where the DO want to eat: My daughter is infamous in the family for being steadfastly indecisive. One night we had a father/daughter night out, and she didn't like the restaurants I was suggesting. I decided to force her to make a choice. I aimed the car at a restaurant row in town, and announced that I was not stopping until she made a decision and told me where to go. We darned near crossed the state, until I relented and made the choice.
I say let's stop at the Biden Bistro. They know us there. We like the menu. It's good enough. Let's not cross the state in indecision.
This is asinine - I hate the saying “it is what it is”, but that’s where we are. Instead of living in fantasy world, let’s start shouting from the rooftops, “Joe Biden is a decent man. He is experienced and he’s done good things in his first term. The entire opposition party at this point in time stands for autocracy, racism, misogyny, climate change denial, and chaos. Vote Democratic.”
Every human has “weaknesses and problems.”
Maybe I’m misunderstanding the premise of the post. Biden is the incumbent president, so can’t be replaced unless he agrees to it. If he was not running I would be very happy with Gretchen Whitmer, Amy Klobuchar, Andy Beshear or Josh Shapiro. Maura Healey and Wes Moore look like they could be great candidates in 2028 in addition to the other four.
Nancy Pelosi just announced she’s running for re-election. At 83, she’s sharper than McCarthy certainly, or any other Republican. At 80, so is Joe Biden.
There are plenty of great Democrats waiting in the wings. Newsom, Whitmer, Warren, etc. But in politics you don’t fix what isn’t broken. Incumbent advantage is everything in politics and Democrats would be out of their minds to give it away.
GovGav ===> 2028!
Let’s not forget that Joe Biden came out of nowhere. Remember: The election is still a year away. A lot can happen in that time…
Won't the reasoning ultimately be: what we have may not be what we want but the alternative will be much much worse. A Harris Trump duel is uncertain at best and there are no others. So a Trump presidency is still very much on the horizon. Let's Just do whatever it takes to prevent that. .please!!!
I do agree, Chris. I would have liked to have seen Joe step aside on his own terms. He was the bridge candidate in 2020, to take us out of the Trump fiasco (being polite!) and getting the country back on track. I took that to mean that he would not be running again. The Democratic Party did not look elsewhere and hung their hat with Biden. So, here we are. Since this is what we have, I pray that Biden does succeed and wins the election. Democracy can not withstand another 4 years of Trump. I sure hope that in the next 4 years, the democrats pull it together to have a strong bench in 2028. Kamala may be running, assuming she will as that is what generally happens. If the country does not embrace her, the GOP may well win the White House and most likely a Trumpy candidate.
GovGav ====> 2028!
🥲 comments.
Remember what have been the two most prosperous presidential terms in recent memory: 1) Clinton's second term 2) Obama's second term.
True enough. For decades, when Rs get power , they run up the deficit and de-regulate us into a disaster- e.g., Bush's financial crisis and Trump's Covid debacle. Then, Ds get in and need to clean up the mess
Of course they do. Not instantly. But if Biden were out of the picture, there are perfectly viable possibilities, many of whom would need some time and money to establish themselves. A bit late in the game now, if Biden dropped out, but hardly impossible. For example, there are a number of governors of key states who are relatively moderate and I think would make good general election candidates.
Exactly right. LBJ dropped out after the NH primary b/c he knew he was very vulnerable. It's not too late, and we'd rally around any number of candidates. The people on this and other sites who say "don't worry" need to pay attention to the polls and talk to people who are not die hard Ds. The plain truth is Biden is not in a strong position despite his several great achievements. The weights around his neck are his age ( and how he presents at this age) and Hunter, and neither issue is going away. We can't risk another Trump term.
As long as Trump is the alternative, Biden's age shouldn't be an issue, though it will probably continue to be one regardless. As for Hunter, the GOP and Trump would just invent something else to hang around another candidate.
You win and lose POTUS elections with the people in the middle. The risk you have with Biden is that the issues presented are enough to cause low info voters to stay home or middle of the road voters to go with a 3rd party. BTW, the issues with Hunter aren't invented. His influence peddling was shameful and unethical. Is it criminal? Certainly not as to Joe. But it muddies the waters enough for some to say "a pox on both" and stay home or vote 3rd party.
You know what I mean, the supposed link between Hunter and his father. That is what is invented. There is also the issue of a known quantity versus a lesser-known quantity. Biden was elected precisely to make America boring again, and he has good people around him. People are less than satisfied with a range of things right now. This will all come more into focus next year.
My point was that the Hunter issue is not made from whole cloth. His actions created a problem for Joe. I agree that the Biden admin is made up of quality people. I also think Joe's performance has been quite good. I don't share your optimism about things looking better next year , but I hope you're correct. Thanks for the exchange
And even if Biden was out, the GOP has turner right so harshly, it needs to be cutter out of politics until they have a "normal" program, or at least one olicy idea that is other than " lrt's Just oppose democrats for the sake of it ..
Joe Biden's entire campaign seems to be based on the argument that "I'm not HIM". Maybe it'll win, maybe it won't, but it's a pretty lame strategy, the way I see it.
He’s running on his track record, which is highly substantial, so maybe you missed that? Don’t feel bad, the perception that he’s sitting in his basement watching daytime TV while others do the job has traction. So does most of the bullshit that comes out of Trump’s yap. Doesn’t make it true.
Spare me the sarcasm. If we’re both here, odds are that we both follow politics. I’m fully aware of what the President has done. The problem I have is that he doesn’t play that up. At all. He has effectively ceded the playing field to the Republicans. They’re being allowed to define the next election and what the issues will be. You know what I want to hear him discuss? ABORTION. The hyper-politicized Supreme Court. How the next election will allow him (or whoever the President is to appoint one or two Supreme Court Justices (not to mention many lower level judges). The infrastructure bill/law. How it impacts US. He needs to take on the age issue head-on (as Chris has suggested, I believe), instead of ignoring it. He needs to do the same with Hunter Biden’s legal issues. I will absolutely concede that what Hunter Biden did and didn’t do doesn’t mean squat in the context of running the country, but like his age, it can’t be ignored. Too many people think that it does matter.