Did Georgia just send a MAJOR warning sign to Trump?

Inside Nikki Haley's 77,000 votes.

Donald Trump formally clinched the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday night, a foregone conclusion since his lone remaining rival, Nikki Haley, dropped out out of the race a week ago.

But, along the way to his coronation, something interesting happened — in the key swing state of Georgia.

Here’s what the vote looked like on Tuesday in the Peach State:

Which, at first glance, seems pretty interesting. After all, Haley isn’t a candidate anymore — so, presumably, anyone who voted for her was doing so to register a protest against Trump.

And, almost 78,000 voters registering that protest would matter in a state like Georgia — where Joe Biden won in 2020 by 12,000 votes out of more than 5 million cast.

Reporters and political analysts noticed this fact as the results were rolling in on Tuesday night.

There was this from early in the night:

And this from later:

It seemed like a big thing!

But, then came the data folks to point out two things:

1. Georgia is an open primary, meaning you don’t just have to be a Republican to vote in the Republican primary

2. Georgia has a long early voting window, meaning that many of the votes cast for Haley happened while she was still an active candidate for the nomination.

That second point is critical. As Washington Post pollster Scott Clement noted:

Nikki Haley’s double-digit support in Georgia’s Republican primary was seen by some commentators as representing a sizable protest vote against Donald Trump. But analysis of vote tallies suggests Haley’s support was concentrated among early voters, many of whom may have voted before she dropped out last Wednesday.

With an estimated 78 percent of the vote counted, Haley had just 5 percent support among Election Day voters, compared with 21 percent among those who voted early. Haley’s support peaked at 27 percent among voters who cast mail-in ballots, many of whom likely voted before she suspended her campaign.

So, there’s that.

Now, does this mean that the vote in Georgia should be totally dismissed? I don’t think so.

The fact is that this primary race has been over for a while now. While Haley was still running an active campaign all the way through last Wednesday, anyone paying attention could see that she was NOT going to beat Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.

Seen in that light, I DO think the Georgia vote matters — just not as much as people might have thought last night. While I am sure there were some Democrats in Haley’s totals, there’s also no question that some Republicans — despite the fact that she had no chance to beat Trump — still decided they wanted to be on the record voting for her.

That, to my mind, is something! Because, as I noted above, Georgia was decided by less than 12,000 votes. When you have a result THAT close, every vote, quite literally, matters.

Is what happened in Georgia on Tuesday night a flashing red light for the Trump campaign? No. Should they pay attention to it? Absolutely.