18 Comments

Great analysis. Thank you!!!!

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author

Thanks for reading!

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I hope it means that some Republicans aren’t all in with the cult. It would only take single-digit percentage of likely voters to not vote for Trump to give Biden the victory

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The analysis may missing some points.

We have 2 big suburban counties Fulton and Dekalb where Haley got around 40% of the votes

Fulton: Trump: 16K. Haley: 10k

Dekalb: Trump 7K and Haley 5K

Warning signs for Trump as expected for this type of primary and there is not Senate or Gov race in 2024

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Mar 13·edited Mar 13

I'm glad someone is finally covering this.

Worth noting, the voting totals in Fulton County was 59-37. That should terrify the Trump campaign.

Also let's be honest, people freaked out over the uncommitted vote in Michigan, so the same level of freaking out should apply here.

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founding

No, Sam it would not appear here , why? Because they always like to minimize Trump's obvious falt lines and try to falsely amplify Biden's in their mind weaknesses. You see, Chris is looking for reasons to down play that Haley's votes even though she's no longer in the race

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Perhaps it's a flashing yellow light?

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Andy, I was going to write the same thing--we have a flashing yellow light here--but you did it for me. Thank you!

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author

Agree!

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Unbelievable. Chris, if you had said Biden was the best President ever, some people would still find fault with your analysis. Your title of the post says it all yet people still believe you are downplaying the message being sent. I know these comments won’t stop but that’s OK by me as I actually look forward (even scan to them) reading the comments as they bring a smile to my face.

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What we learned from last nights results could be instructive. We pretty much know what Trumps ceiling is and that it is unlikely to change between now and November. If the intel gathered from the Georgia vote..where to campaign, spend donor money, go door to door, etc..helps get Biden over that 47 percent, that is all that matters.

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Did Chris Cillizza just write a MAJOR clickbait headline? You should know this kind of sensationalist crap is part of the reason we're in this fix.

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I will take a flashing yellow light 🚦

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Good analysis. The swing states where either party have substantial "protest votes" are important to understand. Thanks for providing the analysis!

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I don't think that it's as ominous for Trump as you might think. On election day, Republican voters will still vote for him. Whether President Biden wins or not will come down to how much of the Democrat vote he can get out.

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Will these Haley voters stay home, vote for Biden, RFK Jr.

Are there any important races in Georgia involving liked republicans that will influence turnout?

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Thanks for this analysis and, as always, presenting us with 'food for thought'.

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Votes for Haley have been accurately counted as protest votes for some time.

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