Donald Trump 2028?

Yes, it's possible. Gulp.

(Donald Trump)

A while back — while writing my rankings of the 10 Republicans most likely to be the 2024 presidential nominee — I included a line that I thought was a given: That some of the people running now were really positioning for 2028 when the race would be wide open and, yes, Trump-less.

An astute reader noted in the comments section that my assumption was faulty — that there was every reason to believe that if he lost in 2024, Trump would run again in 2028, and that he would, again, have a decent chance of being the nominee.

I’ve been sitting with — and stewing on — that thought for a while now. Which is why this Trump Truth Social post on Wednesday really stood out to me (bolding is mine):

WAS BEING FRAMED BY THE FBI AND THE DOJ. NOW IT CONTINUES WITH THE BOXES HOAX, THE “PERFECT” PHONE CALL IN ATLANTA, THE MANHATTAN D.A., AND THE NEW YORK STATE A.G. SCAM. WHAT A GROUP, BUT ALL REPORT TO THE DOJ IN WASHINGTON. IT’S JAMES COMEY AND THE SLEAZEBAGS ALL OVER AGAIN. THEY ARE PLAYING ELECTION INTERFERENCE IN 2024 THROUGH ILLEGAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGAINST REPUBLICANS, IN PARTICULAR YOUR FAVORITE PRESIDENT, ME. THESE ARE CHEATING LOWLIFES, BUT WE WILL WIN. OUR COUNTRY IS GOING TO HELL!

(Sidebar: Sorry for the all caps. And, no, I have no idea why he writes in them.)

While his actual charges are decidedly vague — what does “they are playing election interference in 2024 through illegal law enforcement against Republicans” actually mean? — the sentiment is clear: He is laying the groundwork for the idea that he will be cheated out of a presidential election.

Sound familiar?

There are two obvious pushbacks against Trump 2028:

1. He will be too old

2. Republicans would never nominate him again

Let’s tackle them one by one.

Trump is 76 years old. He will turn 77 next month. He would be 81 at this time in the 2028 election cycle.

That’s the same age Joe Biden will be this November.

Talk about recent precedent! For president!

It will be impossible for the political world to say that Trump is too old to run for office after the country just reelected a man who will be 86 years old when he finishes up a 2nd term.

A brief aside: I am predicating all of this Trump 2028 talk on the idea that Biden wins in 2024. Because if Trump won, he would be constitutionally barred from running again in 2028.

My friend Jonathan V. Last doesn’t think that would preclude him from trying — imagining a President Trump saying something like this as he announced his bid for a third term:

A lot of people are saying that, actually, I could run again. I was treated so unfairly during my first term—the Russia hoax, the witch hunt, the lovers—more unfairly than any president in history. [sniffs] And so I should get a third term. Let me tell you that we’re looking into it and we’ll have a statement very soon. It’ll be a strong statement. And I think a lot of you are going to be very happy with it.

Which seems outlandish. Until you remember that Trump has built a brand on transgression — and to keep the brand alive he needs to flaunt the rules on an ever-bigger scale.

Ok, aside over.

Now onto the idea that Republicans would never accept a two-time loser as their candidate.

Much of the argument in the run-up to the 2020 election was that if Trump lost, the fever would break among Republicans. That the party would wake up to the fact that Trump was, well, a loser — someone who had cost them majorities in Congress and decimated their chances at winning the White House.

“The thing that will fundamentally change things is with Donald Trump out of the White House. Not a joke,” Joe Biden predicted while on the campaign trail in 2019. “You will see an epiphany occur among many of my Republican friends.”

Those predictions ramped up after Trump lost. And became a roar following Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol.

And they all were wrong.

As we sit here today, Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. He is more than 30 points ahead of his next most credible challenger — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

He holds that pole position not in spite of but at least partly because of his election lies.

In September 2022, more than 6 in 10 Republicans in a Monmouth University poll said that Joe Biden won only because of voter fraud. A CNN poll from March showed much the same — with 63% of Republicans saying they did not believe that Biden won the 2020 election legitimately.

And remember that Trump’s lies about the 2020 election aren’t the only thing that has befallen him of late. He has also been indicted for allegedly making hush money payments to a porn star and been found liable of sexual harassment in a case brought by E. Jean Harris Carroll.

Yet here we sit!

Now, ask yourself: What about Trump — or his 8 years dominating the Republican party — would lead you to believe that he would simply accept his loss and go away after 2024?

What seems infinitely more likely to me is that Trump, again, cries foul — arguing that his charging in the hush money case and the possibility that he will also be charged in the Georgia election meddling case or the federal investigation into his retention of classified documents were all part of the Deep State effort to disrupt his chances of winning. And that the only way he can truly get a fair shake is to — you guessed it! — run again.

Semafor’s Benjy Sarlin — also writing about Trump 2028 — suggested that another (another) Trump candidacy could do well to insulate him from even more legal jeopardy. Writes Sarlin:

The same legal problems that made it advantageous for Trump to run in order to claim political persecution and maybe regain control of the Justice Department in 2024 could easily still apply in 2028. In fact, it might behoove him to declare again immediately after losing if any trials have been delayed until after the election or if any investigations are still ongoing. And yes, you can run for president from prison.

Which is true! (In fact, I think Trump announced so early for president this time around to try to help his legal positioning amid a flurry of investigations.)

The point here is that we (and really I) should have learned long ago not to assume ANYTHING when it comes to Donald Trump.

Does it seem far fetched than he could run again in 2028? Sure! Has he done a whole lot of things — both in and out of the White House — that seemed, at the time, just as far-fetched? You bet he has!

What I think I know is that Trump will NEVER willingly go away. He has had a looooong drink at the fountain of national relevance and it’s made him eternally thirsty.

Trump spent his entire life feeling as though he was on the outside looking in at an exclusive club that wouldn’t have him as a member. He stormed that club in 2016. And became the owner of it over the ensuing years. He’s not going to just willingly sell it. It’s not who he is.

Trump will continue to try to protect his position as the central figure of the Republican party for as long as his physical and mental fitness hold out. And that could well mean we are talking about another presidential bid for him in 2028.