Donald Trump is NOT imploding

A rant.

Every morning I scroll through Substack and X. I do it to get a general sense for what (admittedly very online) people across the political spectrum are writing and thinking — both about the day to come in politics and the broader state of the race.

And I’ve noticed something of late in that daily search: Liberals are trying to sell the idea that Donald Trump’s campaign is collapsing. That the gig is up. That, finally, the public has figured him out.

This is, well, ridiculous.

First of all, there’s zero polling evidence that suggests that Trump is somehow in a downward spiral.

Here’s the Washington Post’s polling average in the 7 swing states:

That’s FOUR states where the polling average has Trump and Kamala Harris within a point of each other. And three more states where the largest average lead for either candidate is three points!

That’s close! Really close!

Which doesn’t mean that the race hasn’t moved in Democrats’ direction over the last two months. It absolutely has! There’s no debate that swapping Harris in for Joe Biden has energized the Democratic base nationally and in swing states.

This chart, via Gallup, speaks to that remarkable enthusiasm shift among Democrats:

But it DOES NOT mean that Trump is a) blowing up or b) headed toward a loss.

Two things can be true: 1) Harris has had an amazing month and is the momentum candidate and 2) Trump remains in, effectively, a toss-up race to be the next president.

Would I rather be Harris than Trump today? Yes — by a slight margin. Does that mean Trump can’t win? Absolutely not.

So, why are there so many Democratic content creators out there insisting that Trump’s campaign is fading? Or that he’s mentally declining?

The answer to all of your questions is money.

See, these content creators know one thing: That people like to have their views affirmed. And lots and lots of people — mostly, but not exclusively, Democrats — want to believe that Trump is imploding. That he’s short-circuiting. That, finally, fate or karma or whatever has caught up with him.

I laugh every time I read a headline that promises “DISASTROUS” news for Trump. Or suggests that Trump has officially gone HAYWIRE. Or that some story or piece of evidence or legal case has emerged that ENSURES Trump can never win again.

I get why people write this stuff. It’s fan service. It’s telling people what they want to hear because making them feel good (and affirmed) is the surest way to separate them from their money.

But, like, how much DISASTROUS news can there actually be for Trump? How many times can he go HAYWIRE? How many LAST STRAWS can there be?

It’s ridiculous. If everything is a mountain, there are no molehills. If everything is THE END OF DONALD TRUMP, then nothing is.

The facts of this country — and this race — are these:

1. We are deeply polarized.

2. Trump probably has a voting floor of 45% and a voting ceiling of 48%

3. There is no external event — nor anything he will say or do between now and the election — that will change #1 or #2.

Do I think Trump’s speeches and interviews and his Truth Social feed are often totally off the rails? Absolutely!

(Sidebar: I am going through the transcript of his “interview” with Dr. Phil from earlier this week. Whoa boy.)

Do I think that has changed in any meaningful way from the way in which Trump has talked and operated since he entered politics in 2015? I do not.

A reminder: In his announcement speech, Donald Trump said this:

When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

So, yeah. Trump has always been this person: Boorish, bullying and utterly transactional.

And yet, he won the presidency in 2016. Nearly won it again in 2020. And, if polling is to be believed, has a coin-flip chance of winning again in November.

There will be no Trump collapse. No implosion. He is going to be right there come election night.

Is this somewhat amazing to me — given all he has said, done and said he will do in the future? It is. But my goal isn’t to tell you what I think should happen. It’s to tell you what I think will happen.

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