Donald Trump is (still) running a very good campaign

Look at the results.

(Donald Trump)

Way back in July 2023, I wrote a piece praising the campaign Donald Trump was running for president.

My argument in a nutshell, went like this:

1. Trump was the clear frontrunner in Iowa, New Hampshire and nationally

2. Trump was in the process of decimating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his main rival for the nomination

3. General election polling showed Trump running even with President Joe Biden.

It was true then. It’s even more true now.

Consider:

1. Trump won the Iowa caucuses by 30 points, more than double the previous largest victory margin ever by a Republican

2. Trump won the New Hampshire primary by double digits — despite the fact that nearly 45% of the electorate were either unaffiliated voters or Democrats

3. He is the first Republican in the modern era to sweep the two first-voting states.

4. Trump will win the Nevada caucuses (and the state’s delegates) without a challenge

5. Trump leads Nikki Haley by 30 points in South Carolina’s February 24 primary — and is even better positioned in Super Tuesday states that will vote March 5

6. The establishment of the GOP — Senators, Members of Congress etc. — are scrambling to endorse him

7. Trump is now running stronger against Biden — his average lead is almost 4 points, according to Real Clear Politics — than he was even three months ago.

NONE of this happened by accident. While it’s easy — in hindsight — to see how Trump has emerged as the de facto nominee, there was a time when it was far less obvious that he would walk to the nomination. That he did is the result of a series of strategic decisions — some expected, some unexpected — made by his team over the past 14 months or so.

Now, before I go any further, I think it’s important to make a clear distinction here: I believe that, from my perch as a watcher of politics for the better part of the last three decades, Donald Trump has run an outstanding campaign.

This does NOT mean I have abandoned my belief that Trump represents an active threat to American democracy — based on what he did while he was in office and what he has promised to do if he is elected again.

I think it’s important to separate out those two things — the campaign from the candidate. The campaign has been uniquely effective. The candidate remains erratic, bullying, authoritarian-adjacent and, yes, dangerous.

I have written lots about the candidate in this space. I will continue to do so. But, this piece focuses exclusively on the campaign — the tactics and broader strategic decisions they have made that turned the Republican race into a coronation for Trump.

I want to go through a series of these moves. These are in no particular order other than the way they came to me.

• Embracing the indictments. When I wrote in praise of Trump’s campaign back in July, he had been indicted twice. That numbers has since doubled. Trump’s decision to cast the indictments as part of the Deep State’s attempt to keep him from running for president again (“Election interference” he screams whenever he can) resonated with a party base that was already primed to believe the worst about the justice system in this country. Trump made the indictments just the next chapter in a story he had been telling the base about how “these people” would do anything to keep him from power — a tale that began when he lost (but refused to admit that he lost) the 2020 election. How convincing has Trump been? In the Iowa caucuses, 65% of participants said that he was fit for office even if he is convicted of a crime. Even in New Hampshire — with its far more moderate electorate — a majority (54%) said that a convicted Trump was fit to be president. Trump’s decision to run TOWARD his legal problems — and weave them into the tapestry of his broader message — was, to my mind, the critical strategic decision of the campaign.

• Skipping the debates. Remember the sturm und drang when Trump announced he wouldn’t be participating in the Republican debates? He’s handing his opponents a chance to have a star turn! He looks weak! Yeah, not so much. By robbing the debates of his undeniable star power, Trump made them look like JV games — the kids’ table at Thanksgiving. And, amazingly, rather than attack Trump, who was ahead by 40 points nationally, the remaining candidates turned on each other and almost completely ignored him. Trump, meanwhile, scheduled counter-programming — via town halls and campaign events — designed to lessen any potential impact (and news coverage) the debates might command. By the final debate — between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis — it felt like everyone was just going through the motions, a pantomime that everyone knew meant next to nothing. Trump was so in the heads of the other candidates that Haley said she wouldn’t participate in either of the two scheduled debates between Iowa and New Hampshire because the former president wasn’t in them. That robbed her campaign of a shot at building real momentum before the Granite State vote.

• Savaging DeSantis. Even before the Florida governor officially entered the race (too late, by the way) Trump had a nickname ready “Ron DeSanctimonious” and a patter: DeSantis was a lightweight, a weirdo (pudding fingers!!!) and disloyal too — Trump had “made” him as a candidate in 2018 and now he was turning his back on the former president. Trump’s messaging was remarkably effective. DeSantis was widely portrayed in the media as Trump Lite and as, well, a strange dude. Now, DeSantis helped Trump — a lot — too. He was never comfortable in his own skin. (That laugh! That “smile”!) He could never settle on a message. And on and on. But the truth is — and we learned this first in the 2016 primary — that Donald Trump is a remarkably good bully. If he decides he wants to destroy you, he has a pretty long track record of succeeding at it.

• The anti-chaos campaign. I think that Jeb Bush nailed it way back in 2016 when he said this of Trump: “He’s a chaos candidate. And he'd be a chaos president.” And, in that campaign, the chaos of candidate Trump was reflected in his campaign structure. Top advisers were ousted. Change was constant. The actual organization — especially in early states — was shaky to say the least. There were constant leaks about the candidate (and his stability — or lack thereof). It was an absolute clown show. (I will ALWAYS believe that Trump won IN SPITE of his 2016 campaign, not because of it.) His 2024 campaign has been the EXACT opposite of all that. Trump installed two veteran campaign operatives — Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles — at the top of his effort this time and let them do their work. The drama around the campaign is gone — except of course the drama the candidate causes. There have been zero major staff departures, a marked contrast to the DeSantis effort which seemed to see a change in top leadership on a weekly basis. The voter ID and get out the vote efforts in Iowa and New Hampshire were real — and delivered. The recruitment — and rollout — of critical endorsements (Tim Scott being the latest) were handled delicately and expertly. Top to bottom, the basic blocking and tackling of this campaign has been markedly improved from what Trump had in 2016 or 2020.

There are a thousand other small things Trump and his team have done throughout the last year to turn what once looked like a real race into, well, not. But those are the ones that jump out to me.

If I was a Democrat, this would worry me. Trump has demonstrated a unique ability to build a movement over the past 8 years. While I would say he has done so through demagoguery and, often times, outright lying, he nonetheless has a raw charisma and ability to connect with millions and millions of people.

What he has never really had before is a competent campaign. (Sorry Brad Parscale!). Trump, because he is Trump, has generally surrounded himself with toadies and yes men (and women). He has never listened to anyone except, maybe, his sons and daughter. He has always been the lone strategist in the campaign.

I DO think that the primary race proves that that reality may no longer be operative. I still think Trump believes himself to be the smartest person in the room (and maybe in the world!) But, judging from the sort of primary campaign he ran — and the fact that LaCivita and Wiles are still there — I would suggest he might be listening to them when it comes to tactics and strategy. That he is allowing himself to be managed — at least at the margins.

Does this mean that Trump is going to win the presidency? It does not! I think he still has the unique ability to screw it up! And both what he has said and done in the past (and what he will say and do in the future) could derail him.

That said, I DO think Trump starts the general election, which, to my mind started unofficially yesterday, as a slight favorite over Joe Biden. And that has everything to do with the campaign has run. It has been a very good one.