Thanks, Chris, for this thoughtful article. I agree with you, with regard to Trump, the campaigner, not the candidate. I would go further to say that Trump is an extraordinary person in the way he has managed to build a cult following, in the way that he has convinced lower middle class people that he, a silver spoon billionaire, is their representative, in the way that he has convinced evangelicals that he, the diametric opposite of Jesus's standard of kindness and compassion for Christianity, is their representative too. But I use the word "extraordinary" in its literal meaning, far beyond the norm, for good or evil, not in a complimentary way. Hitler was extraordinary too and I think Trump is similarly evil. Maybe not evil in that he wants to kill millions of people the way Hitler did but he is completely selfish and amoral and only interested in whatever benefits him. And, if you consider how he reacted to COVID, he was certainly willing to let millions be put at risk, and ultimately die, because he believed that keeping the economy going, regardless to the impact that COVID could have on an unprotected populace, improved his election chances. He is willing to see NATO fall apart because he believes it improves his election chances, etc. He is completely indifferent to the history and traditions of our nation, or what future consequences may come from what he is doing. I think many, including myself, have underestimated him for some time because of the stupid things he says. But your article is spot on-----he is both an extraordinary campaigner who has improbably built a dangerous cult following and also a completely evil and amoral candidate who could be ruinous for America, NATO and the world. The risk he poses should not be underestimated. I think he has already done considerable damage and the worst could be yet to come.
Yes, agree totally. If he was by himself, he would be considered a nut (which he is) and ignored, as he was pre-2016. What is most disturbing is that his evil rhetoric is loved by tens of millions of Americans, and tolerated by even more.
How much of this is due to his team running an effective campaign, and how much is due to the fact that all of his opponents, to date, have not run a campaign to try to beat him? If your batters go to the plate to hit without a bat, and the pitcher throws a no-hitter, is the pitcher really any good? We don’t really know, do we? Might be because the pitcher was good, or might be because the batters had a poor plan of attack, and were afraid to offend the pitcher’s supporters.
"You are only as good as your opposition" comes to mind. In his case, Trump effectively had the field to himself, as none of his main rivals, Christie notwithstanding, refused to engage and force him to defend himself or his previous actions.
It is easy to win and look good when you are the only team on the field.
When one of your main strategies is not to engage in debate and demand fealty, I’m not sure your campaign can be classified as “good.” Effective, successful, maybe. Not good. It’s like calling Manson a good cult leader.
Here's the analogy I'll make: I played in a poker tournament last week and won it rather easily, mostly due to the best cards I've ever had in my life. I told friends that a monkey could have played my hands and won, too. I think a monkey could have directed Trump's campaign to victories in Iowa and NH.
I just don’t see a way for him to win the general elections. The major difference is people saw between 2017 and 2020 what kind of president he was.
Consider this : he lost the last 2 elections he s been in
He hasn’t gained new support. Therefore no one (or almost no one) that didn’t vote for him in 2020 will vote for him. However after jan 6 it’s more likely he lost support than that he won support. This might not be based on actual data but it s also obvious.
He s very divisive. He appeals only to his base and not anyone else. Yes the polls show him favourite. But also so much can happen between today and the actual vote.
Im not really a believer in god but I pray every dag that the American people don t make the same mistake again... because it could be the end of the American democracy and other countries often copy you guys so it could be the beginning of the end here in canada as well. So please america.... make the right choice!
It is hard to judge the effectiveness of a campaign when the candidate is more cult leader than politician, and who started his campaign with a huge percentage of his base totally unwilling to consider anyone else.
That, combined with the power of incumbency..sort of..and the writing was already on the wall.
I agree Chris, that his campaign to this point has been quite competent, due to having good experienced campaign operatives at the top of it. HOWEVER, I think that as the spotlight becomes stronger on Trump, the man, the adjudicated rapist, businessman found responsible of massive tax and insurance fraud and soon to be liable for LARGE judgements against him for adjudicated rape, sexual assault and liable, his behavior will grow more UNHINGED. As the Biden campaign starts mentioning these facts established in courts of law, by juries of his peers, his rage and decompensation will accelerate. He is a danger to democracy and I fully believe that he will become ever more self-destructive over the next weeks and months. Let's also mention that he is likely to have been CONVICTED (but perhaps not sentenced) of ONE or more felonies prior to November, that fact hammered home will drive away sufficient voters in swing states to prevent his re-election, in my opinion.
Very great piece for separation of the two...campaign and candidate...boo candidate! I think it is good to reminded of the periodicaaly as we go forward or until candidate is imprisoned and other folks wake up to his dangerousness. I live in hope!
He probably wouldn't debate Biden because that would expose his lies vanity to the whole world. I hope he decline to debate Biden . The whole world will see him for what he is.
You can give credit to a savvy campaign. But what about blame? It is a "shanda" ( or disgrace for those outside the tribe) on the American people that Trump is a viable candidate. You can-- to an extent- blame Biden, the media, the enablers in the pundit class or Rs politicians, but the real blame is in the public that even considers a manifest criminal, know-nothing , and malignant narcissist. His support includes a noxious combination of the ignorant, the bigoted, and the greedy, the latter caring only about keeping taxes low. A side note: polling is more complicated than ever b/c Trump brings out voters who aren't traditional voters- ie, people who don't normally care about politics but love Trump's act. This makes modeling complex
Yes Trump might have millions in his cult, but don't forget the millions that he repels. That is why he lost in 2020 to Biden by more than 7 millions and he is going to lose again in November.
The truth is that it's almost irrelevant that "He is the first Republican in the modern era to sweep the two first-voting states."
When it is also a much more important fact that 'He is the first Republican in the modern era to LOSE re-election and then run again'.
Critical to this is that he NEVER admitted he lost and the overwhelming majority of sad sack GOP primary voters have swallowed his bullshit hook, line and sinker.
Trump is running as the incumbent....and he is not doing very well.
Barely garnering 50% of the votes from the most engaged GOP voters is a sign of profound weakness.
Chris Cillizza propping up Trump (and denigrating President Biden at every opportunity) is getting tiresome and insufferable.
I strongly agree with everything you wrote, except for your last point, which is a bit of a cheap shot towards Chris.
I may sometimes not like what Chris writes*, and I may not agree 100% of the time with what Chris writes, and I do think he has a slight pro-Trump anti-Biden bias. Perhaps 55% that, and 45% pro-Biden anti-Trump. But I give Chris the benefit of the doubt because he's far closer to the players in the game and is far more knowledgeable than I in these matters.
*Case in point - this article. I likened it to a fink giving aid to the enemy. But if I take emotion out of it, he's pretty spot-on in his assessment, as distasteful as it is to acknowledge that.
I agree with you Dave completely. May be Chris wants a another complimentary thank you card from him (Trump) like the one he( Chris) got when Trump won in 2016 after Chris incessantly wrote about Hillary Clinton's email. This time though, he is not going to win for so reasons too many for me to write here. You can prop him up all you want and disparage Joe Biden, Biden is going to win in November. Did anyone see the Stock Market lately or the GDP this morning?. It's happening people, may the more honest and decent man win
We have to take a few things into account..like the fact that many Republicans have left the Party over Trump and Trumpism. Like that Trumo’s base is noisy and faithful, but it is not expanding. One could say, given the division in percentages, that Trump won the Trumpists in New Hampshire, and Haley won the unaffiliated. Polling has had an a dismal record of tracking with actual results in the last several contests. None of the Republican “debates” were real, they savaged one another and endorsed Trump. He did not need to be there. Donald Trump is a carnival barker who successfully and deftly manipulates part of the American voting public. I guess that translates to a good campaign…but not necessarily to a November win.
The campaign may be good, the candidate is disgraceful. Hoping the candidate implodes to smithereens.
As a former POTUS he has a record. When that is focused on he will be destroyed
Thanks, Chris, for this thoughtful article. I agree with you, with regard to Trump, the campaigner, not the candidate. I would go further to say that Trump is an extraordinary person in the way he has managed to build a cult following, in the way that he has convinced lower middle class people that he, a silver spoon billionaire, is their representative, in the way that he has convinced evangelicals that he, the diametric opposite of Jesus's standard of kindness and compassion for Christianity, is their representative too. But I use the word "extraordinary" in its literal meaning, far beyond the norm, for good or evil, not in a complimentary way. Hitler was extraordinary too and I think Trump is similarly evil. Maybe not evil in that he wants to kill millions of people the way Hitler did but he is completely selfish and amoral and only interested in whatever benefits him. And, if you consider how he reacted to COVID, he was certainly willing to let millions be put at risk, and ultimately die, because he believed that keeping the economy going, regardless to the impact that COVID could have on an unprotected populace, improved his election chances. He is willing to see NATO fall apart because he believes it improves his election chances, etc. He is completely indifferent to the history and traditions of our nation, or what future consequences may come from what he is doing. I think many, including myself, have underestimated him for some time because of the stupid things he says. But your article is spot on-----he is both an extraordinary campaigner who has improbably built a dangerous cult following and also a completely evil and amoral candidate who could be ruinous for America, NATO and the world. The risk he poses should not be underestimated. I think he has already done considerable damage and the worst could be yet to come.
I agree with all you’ve said here. He is nothing more than a cult leader. He is dangerous, but so are the cult members.
Yes, agree totally. If he was by himself, he would be considered a nut (which he is) and ignored, as he was pre-2016. What is most disturbing is that his evil rhetoric is loved by tens of millions of Americans, and tolerated by even more.
Yep.
How much of this is due to his team running an effective campaign, and how much is due to the fact that all of his opponents, to date, have not run a campaign to try to beat him? If your batters go to the plate to hit without a bat, and the pitcher throws a no-hitter, is the pitcher really any good? We don’t really know, do we? Might be because the pitcher was good, or might be because the batters had a poor plan of attack, and were afraid to offend the pitcher’s supporters.
"You are only as good as your opposition" comes to mind. In his case, Trump effectively had the field to himself, as none of his main rivals, Christie notwithstanding, refused to engage and force him to defend himself or his previous actions.
It is easy to win and look good when you are the only team on the field.
When one of your main strategies is not to engage in debate and demand fealty, I’m not sure your campaign can be classified as “good.” Effective, successful, maybe. Not good. It’s like calling Manson a good cult leader.
Here's the analogy I'll make: I played in a poker tournament last week and won it rather easily, mostly due to the best cards I've ever had in my life. I told friends that a monkey could have played my hands and won, too. I think a monkey could have directed Trump's campaign to victories in Iowa and NH.
Regarding Iowa and NH, what do you say to the argument that he was basically running as an incumbent? This would make his results less impressive.
I know we said this in 2016 but.
I just don’t see a way for him to win the general elections. The major difference is people saw between 2017 and 2020 what kind of president he was.
Consider this : he lost the last 2 elections he s been in
He hasn’t gained new support. Therefore no one (or almost no one) that didn’t vote for him in 2020 will vote for him. However after jan 6 it’s more likely he lost support than that he won support. This might not be based on actual data but it s also obvious.
He s very divisive. He appeals only to his base and not anyone else. Yes the polls show him favourite. But also so much can happen between today and the actual vote.
Im not really a believer in god but I pray every dag that the American people don t make the same mistake again... because it could be the end of the American democracy and other countries often copy you guys so it could be the beginning of the end here in canada as well. So please america.... make the right choice!
It is hard to judge the effectiveness of a campaign when the candidate is more cult leader than politician, and who started his campaign with a huge percentage of his base totally unwilling to consider anyone else.
That, combined with the power of incumbency..sort of..and the writing was already on the wall.
I agree Chris, that his campaign to this point has been quite competent, due to having good experienced campaign operatives at the top of it. HOWEVER, I think that as the spotlight becomes stronger on Trump, the man, the adjudicated rapist, businessman found responsible of massive tax and insurance fraud and soon to be liable for LARGE judgements against him for adjudicated rape, sexual assault and liable, his behavior will grow more UNHINGED. As the Biden campaign starts mentioning these facts established in courts of law, by juries of his peers, his rage and decompensation will accelerate. He is a danger to democracy and I fully believe that he will become ever more self-destructive over the next weeks and months. Let's also mention that he is likely to have been CONVICTED (but perhaps not sentenced) of ONE or more felonies prior to November, that fact hammered home will drive away sufficient voters in swing states to prevent his re-election, in my opinion.
Very great piece for separation of the two...campaign and candidate...boo candidate! I think it is good to reminded of the periodicaaly as we go forward or until candidate is imprisoned and other folks wake up to his dangerousness. I live in hope!
Chris do you think the “don’t debate” plan extends into the general election?
I do, actually. More on that soon in this space.
I agree. His campaign will NOT want him to debate, since it will be TOO easy to stir him up and cause him to rage spiral out-of-control. My two cents.
He probably wouldn't debate Biden because that would expose his lies vanity to the whole world. I hope he decline to debate Biden . The whole world will see him for what he is.
You can give credit to a savvy campaign. But what about blame? It is a "shanda" ( or disgrace for those outside the tribe) on the American people that Trump is a viable candidate. You can-- to an extent- blame Biden, the media, the enablers in the pundit class or Rs politicians, but the real blame is in the public that even considers a manifest criminal, know-nothing , and malignant narcissist. His support includes a noxious combination of the ignorant, the bigoted, and the greedy, the latter caring only about keeping taxes low. A side note: polling is more complicated than ever b/c Trump brings out voters who aren't traditional voters- ie, people who don't normally care about politics but love Trump's act. This makes modeling complex
Yes Trump might have millions in his cult, but don't forget the millions that he repels. That is why he lost in 2020 to Biden by more than 7 millions and he is going to lose again in November.
Chris is giving Trump way too much credit.
The truth is that it's almost irrelevant that "He is the first Republican in the modern era to sweep the two first-voting states."
When it is also a much more important fact that 'He is the first Republican in the modern era to LOSE re-election and then run again'.
Critical to this is that he NEVER admitted he lost and the overwhelming majority of sad sack GOP primary voters have swallowed his bullshit hook, line and sinker.
Trump is running as the incumbent....and he is not doing very well.
Barely garnering 50% of the votes from the most engaged GOP voters is a sign of profound weakness.
Chris Cillizza propping up Trump (and denigrating President Biden at every opportunity) is getting tiresome and insufferable.
Dave,
I strongly agree with everything you wrote, except for your last point, which is a bit of a cheap shot towards Chris.
I may sometimes not like what Chris writes*, and I may not agree 100% of the time with what Chris writes, and I do think he has a slight pro-Trump anti-Biden bias. Perhaps 55% that, and 45% pro-Biden anti-Trump. But I give Chris the benefit of the doubt because he's far closer to the players in the game and is far more knowledgeable than I in these matters.
*Case in point - this article. I likened it to a fink giving aid to the enemy. But if I take emotion out of it, he's pretty spot-on in his assessment, as distasteful as it is to acknowledge that.
Fair enough Eric. Although I don't agree that I threw a "cheap shot".
A little less parroting the MAGA talking points against President Biden from Chris would be more more palatable.
Just like less of his carrying the anti-Hillary baloney about "her emails" in 2016 would have been more honest.
I agree with you Dave completely. May be Chris wants a another complimentary thank you card from him (Trump) like the one he( Chris) got when Trump won in 2016 after Chris incessantly wrote about Hillary Clinton's email. This time though, he is not going to win for so reasons too many for me to write here. You can prop him up all you want and disparage Joe Biden, Biden is going to win in November. Did anyone see the Stock Market lately or the GDP this morning?. It's happening people, may the more honest and decent man win
We have to take a few things into account..like the fact that many Republicans have left the Party over Trump and Trumpism. Like that Trumo’s base is noisy and faithful, but it is not expanding. One could say, given the division in percentages, that Trump won the Trumpists in New Hampshire, and Haley won the unaffiliated. Polling has had an a dismal record of tracking with actual results in the last several contests. None of the Republican “debates” were real, they savaged one another and endorsed Trump. He did not need to be there. Donald Trump is a carnival barker who successfully and deftly manipulates part of the American voting public. I guess that translates to a good campaign…but not necessarily to a November win.