Don't try to trick voters, part 4,569

The Ohio vote, explained.

A ballot measure that would have created a 60% threshold to pass amendments to the state’s constitution failed convincingly on Tuesday.

The New York Times has a good piece up explaining why:

For months, it had been apparent that Issue 1, advertised as a measure to safeguard the State Constitution from wealthy out-of-state interests, was primarily about blocking an abortion-rights amendment that will be on the November ballot. Supporters of the measure hardly kept this a secret, and campaign donors lined up accordingly: Much of the money in support came from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, a Washington-based anti-abortion advocacy group.

“It’s a little bit of a magical trick,” said Rebecca Ferris, 74, a registered Republican who voted against Issue 1. “The people who engineered it have covered it so that you don’t really see the cards that are there.”

This is a reminder of two basic facts about our current moment in politics:

1. Voters are, generally speaking, savvier than politicians give them credit for

2. Abortion is still a winning issue for Democrats

On the first point: Attempts — by Republicans — to suggest that the vote was a generic measure not aimed at the abortion rights amendment set to be voted on this fall were thinly disguised and not terribly effective.

There was heavy outside spending by national groups both who support and oppose abortion and, as the Times story makes clear, the average Ohio voter knew what the real end goal was here.

On the second: If I was a Republican in a swing state or district on the ballot next November, this result would worry me. In the same way that the race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat in April — won by a Democrat who put her pro choice views at the center of her campaign — would make me nervous. Ditto the underperformance of Republicans in last November’s midterm election.

It’s clear that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade last summer remains a potent motivator to the Democratic base (and much less so for the Republican one).

It’s smart — always — to not make too much of a single election, especially one in August of an off year. But, there’s no question that Republicans were trying to pull a fast one and got called on it by voters in Ohio on Tuesday night. And that running on abortion rights is — still — a political winner for Democrats.

Both lessons are worth keeping in mind as we head into the election year.