*Everything* is coming up Trump

On luck.

It is hard to imagine Donald Trump writing a better script for himself and his campaign than what has played out over the past 18 days.

Consider:

• President Joe Biden bombed in the June 27 debate, affirming for many viewers that he was simply too old (and not competent enough) to do the job

• For the next two weeks, the Democratic party tore itself apart, with lawmakers and other influentials insisting that Biden would drag the entire ticket down if he stayed on the ballot even as the president narrowed his inner circle and insisted he would remain in the race

• The Supreme Court ruled that presidents should be given broad immunity when it comes to actions taken while in office

• An attempted assassination against Trump left him bloodied but not permanently injured, rallying his base behind him — at near-messianic levels — and creating the possibility he will be viewed as a sympathetic figure by larger swaths of the public

• Trump is set to announce his VP pick as soon as this afternoon and may make a surprised appearance — as the conquering hero — at the first night of the Republican National Convention.

• The classified documents case against him — which was generally thought to be the most open and shut of the four indictments — was dismissed Monday by Judge Aileen Cannon.

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Here’s how Trump reacted to the Cannon dismissal:

His definition of unity is, um, strange.

(Sidebar: You should ignore all the talk coming out of GOP circles that Trump is a changed man after the assassination attempt. He is not. He is the same guy. Always has been! Always will be!)

Look. I get that it’s slightly strange — ok, more than slightly — to say that a guy who came inches from being murdered by an assassin’s bullet is having a great run of things.

But, the point is that the bullet did (mostly) miss — grazing Trump’s ear. And while the Cannon dismissal will, of course, be appealed, it’s still a major win for Trump. And while Democrats seemed to be on the precipice of dumping Biden last week, it now seems that the president will be the party’s nominee — even though he is (and will continue to be) hamstrung by age and competence issues.

Where we are today then is this: Trump is a hero to his base — even more so than he was two weeks ago. He is a (more) sympathetic figure to at least some swing voters. His opponent is likely to be an 81-year incumbent whose party — or at least some of them — actively tried to get rid of him just last week. Polling in swing states continues to favor Trump.

And there’s even more polling — from the New York Times and Siena College — that’s just out showing Trump ahead by 3 in Pennsylvania and only behind by 3 in Virginia.

How to explain it all? Luck, honestly.

“By luck or by God, many people are saying it’s by God I’m still here,” Trump told the New York Post about the shooting.

And, it’s hard to argue that. Had Trump not tilted his head slightly — he said he was looking at a billboard of stats on immigration — the bullet would likely have hit him full force in the head.

Then there’s the luck that Biden was sick or jet-lagged or over-prepared or whatever on debate night, leading the president to deliver the worst debate performance in modern political history.

And the luck to get Cannon, an inexperienced federal judge, as the final voice on the classified documents case.

On and on it goes.

As National Review wrote on Friday — before the assassination attempt:

Now, Donald Trump is set to face either a politically crippled Joe Biden, who the entire country thinks is too old to do the job, or a swapped-in nominee (Kamala Harris? Someone else?) who might be leading a Democratic Party that is fractured by Biden’s reluctance to go quietly, or riven by Biden’s Israel–Gaza policy, or at war with itself over the decision to replace the black and female Harris with an electable alternative.

Donald Trump, of course, has his own talents that aid his quest for political power: his animal cunning, his genius for self-promotion and hype, and his inability to feel shame or embarrassment.

But has there ever been a luckier man who has pursued higher office? One could almost believe that the universe is conspiring to put Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

Or as political scientist and author Brian Klaas wrote in 2019: “Trump is simply the luckiest president in modern U.S. history.”

Or as Trump himself famously has said: “Everything in life is luck.”

Or as Milhouse Van Houten said:

(If you don’t understand that last one, just trust me. Or read this.)

Ask anyone successful in politics or business or journalism or athletics or, well, anything else and they will tell you — if they are being honest — that luck had a lot to do with their success.

Trump, right now, is on a lucky streak the likes of which we have rarely seen before in politics.

Of course, the election isn’t for another four months. Things can and will change. But, Trump could hardly have written a better script for himself over the past two and a half weeks. And, as a result, he’s in the catbird’s seat in the race right now.