FLIP: Biden's Quick Comeback

Surprising numbers!

(President Joe Biden)

Joe Biden’s political prospects are starting to look up. After a brutal autumn and winter in the polls, there are major signs of life for the incumbent. For new details, read on. ⬇️

Consider these 3 factors:

1. Poll Turnaround

A new Quinnipiac University poll — released this week — shows Biden beat Donald Trump 50% to 44%, the largest lead he has had in a national survey in quite some time. (That same poll showed Biden leading Trump among electorally-critical independents by 12 points. Which is ALSO a very big deal.)

The Q poll is part of a broader movement we have seen in the last few weeks — with Biden beginning to trend upward even as Trump moves down.

Here’s the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, which shows that movement pretty clearly:

Of the last 5 polls aggregated by RCP, Biden leads in two, Trump leads in two, and one is tied — a major change from even a few weeks ago when the former president was ahead in nearly every new survey. Trump’s average lead, which was over 3 points just a week or two ago, is now under 2 points.

2. Critical States

A new analysis of the electoral college playing field by Moody’s Analytics suggests Biden is a narrow favorite over Trump this fall.

Here’s their map:

It gives Biden 308 electoral votes, to 230 for Trump. This is very close to the 306 -232 margin Biden won by in 2020.

Explaining their calculations, they write:

President Biden is expected to win re-election but by a thin margin, and the election could easily flip with only small shifts in the economy’s performance, his approval rating, voter turnout, and how well third-party candidates do. On the margin, political factors favor Trump’s candidacy, while economic factors favor Biden’s….

…Biden’s projected 308 electoral vote tally provides some cushion. If we start flipping the results of his slimmest victories, the loss of North Carolina and Nevada would trim his vote total to 286, still enough to achieve victory. Losing Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes, would then bring Biden to the exact threshold he needs to win a second term.

Therefore, Pennsylvania appears to be the key to winning or losing the 2024 election. Losing the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes would drop Biden to 267 votes, if he also loses North Carolina and Nevada, and 251 votes, if he also loses Georgia, swinging the election to Trump. In other words, our model suggests that the upcoming presidential election will likely be determined in Pennsylvania.

To that last point about Pennsylvania being THE critical state of the 2024 election, I give you THIS brand spanking new poll from Franklin & Marshall College out of the Keystone State: Biden 42% Trump 37% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 8%.

3. It’s the Economy

Economic confidence is rising. This, from the Associated Press, tells that story:

American consumers, fresh off strong holiday spending, are feeling more confident than they have in two years.

The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose for the third straight month, to 114.8 in January from 108 in December. January’s reading came in just slightly higher than the 114 that analysts were expecting.

The index, which measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months, is at its highest level since December of 2021.

And here’s what the chart looks like:

And that’s not the only major consumer confidence index trending upward. Consumer sentiment is moving in that direction too. University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote:

Consumer sentiment soared 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021, showing that the sharp increase in December was no fluke…

Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations. Over the last two months, sentiment has climbed a cumulative 29%, the largest two-month increase since 1991 as a recession ended.

Here’s what their consumer sentiment chart looks like:

Elections are about momentum. And trend lines. You want yours going in the right direction, while the other guy’s heads the wrong way.

Obviously there is still a long way to go before November 5 (278 days to be exact!). But, at the moment, the Biden trend line is moving in the right direction.

Final Thoughts

It’s no wonder Republicans like Chuck Grassley and Troy Nehls are now admitting they don’t want to help Biden by giving him legislative victories. Time will tell if that strategy pays off.

In the meantime, I’ll be working to give you the full story.

I would be honored if you supported me in my efforts, so I can bring you critical updates, full time. ⬇️

Either way, thanks for reading – I truly appreciate it!