Thank you, Chris. I really needed this post this morning after seeing the CNN poll. (Not that polls mean a heck of a lot right now.) This is what we need! More positive press! It’s simply impossible that Trump should be back in ANY capacity. In a democracy, we get what we deserve, and we deserve way better than Trump. Biden has his faults, but there is not any that should dictate a vote for Trump.
I would like to believe that the rejection of authoritarianism or at least Trumpism was at the heart of the change here but I think it is far more likely that economics are driving this. It doesn't ultimately matter as the result is the same but if it is economics it makes the change more fragile.
Grassley. What a chump. He used to have integrity. Long since lost it to the Trump train. (Yes, previously from Iowa and yes, previously voted for him a few times....)
Nehls and Grassley are saying the quiet part out loud, and handing Democrats a dandy advertising message. It is starting to dawn on me how Donald J Trump took control of the Republican Party! If they want to sabotage the American people, why just blurt it out?. Jeez, guys.
It is wonderful to see Biden rising in the polls, maybe more folks will look around and say “hey, Biden has done a decent job,”
Still such a long way to get to election day - lots can happen in the next 9 months. Have to stay alert, active and keep fighting. Like in golf, can’t be thinking about giving the acceptance speech with 9 holes to go…. No let up until the ball is in the cup on the 18th hole. Remember 2016, when all thought Clinton was in the chair, even before the Access Hollywood tape…
Yes, it’s a long ways to the election, so caution is not unreasonable.
That said, let’s not skim over what’s trending: regardless of Biden’s approval rating, in a head-to-head match up with Trump, from a “quality” non-partisan polling company, Biden is trending upwards. Period. Take the good with the bad we’ve seen near the end of last year.
I believe it might have been Jay Kuo at “The Status Kuo” that highlighted the dearth of quality non-partisan polls (or maybe JVL or Charlie Sykes at The Bulwark), not the least of which are the incredibly HIGH costs of using large enough sample groups in order to be more accurate. ALL polls use algorithms to take their (typically small) sample and extrapolate out to the larger population. The larger your sample is to begin with, the less you need to rely on algorithms to correct for “under-sampling”. The problem with aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics is that when they do their averages, they ALSO use a lot of the crap, ie highly partisan pollsters with questionable data and algorithmic suppositions, and that ends up “polluting” their averages.
We know that the Electoral College will be won or lost at the margins, so a national ranking isn’t as significant as the 5 or 6 swing states and how they’re trending.
All that understood, let’s be happy at what Quinnipiac is telling us, and continue to work hard to get President Biden re-elected!
I didn’t get despondent when it looked like Trump was ahead. Not going to get too elated with it looking like Biden is. Thanks for this reporting on it, Chris.
It’s nice to hear some positive polls, yet don’t get too excited. Trying hard to not take each poll, in either direction, as meaningful, at least this far out. We have a long way to go but it’s a bit uplifting, rather than the constant drumbeat of negativity.
I keep hearing that however many Trump voters won’t vote for him if he’s convicted of a crime. I gotta wonder what their feeling is when loses civil case after civil case.
Everything you write makes sense Chris, but politics has changed so much in recent years. My personal theory is that people are not interested in platform anymore, they determine their vote by two factors:
Chris, looking forward to your deeper dive but nice to hear something positive. I don’t want to wish the time away but once September comes, that will start the real grind. Summer means vacations and summer fun, not paying too much attention to politics.
As the economy continues to steadily improve and Donald Trump appears more in the national spotlight, the race seems to be shifting towards President Biden. This is excellent news for democracy!
National polls are irrelevant. All that matters is what happens in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and two or three other states. The rest of us just get to sit back and watch because, one way or another, our votes are irrelevant (I live in a very blue state, so much so that candidates never come here).
I live in Iowa, and I'm guessing Biden won't even bother to come here, which I understand. Trump doesn't need to visit here to win our 6 electoral votes, but I'm sure he will just because he loves to be treated like a God....and sadly there's a lot of that going on around here. I hope there's going to be a lot of sad Iowans come November.
Some of us may look really, really smart in November. Some pollsters (and horserace followers) may look really, really bad in November. Just sayin'.....
Trump is a dyed carrot-top maniac that grew out of a patch of manicure. He undoubtedly was compromised by the KGB at least 15 years or more before becoming President in 2016. Black cash from Russia was funneled through Trump's multi-million dollar real estate transactions. In fact, the Trump Tower in SoHo was entirely funded by Russians. In a 2008 NY conference, Trump Jr announced - as if it was a prize - that the Trump organization had received $100 million from a Russian bank. (www.businessinsider.com) Russian banks do not just lend money to foreigners without expecting something in return other than the interest on the loan balance. They loan money (1) to launder black cash into another country - millions of dollars which hurt the other country's economy, or (2) they are entrapping and obligating that foreigner to work for Russia. All banks in Russia are managed and controlled by the KGB/FSB - Russian secret service.
It is safe to say that Trump doesn't care where the money comes from, nor is he smart enough to understand the severity of his crimes. Trump and his family organization were
on the KGB payroll many years prior to being maneuvered into the U.S. Presidency by Russian KGB hacks. He sold his soul and our country to the Russians. Is he a traitor? - most likely.
The Mueller Report failed to adequately inform the American public about the Trump - Russian relationship and the implications for their personal lives. I believe this was due to the Barr-Mueller long-term friendship and the fact that Barr - as the AG - did not wish to be forced to litigate a presidential treason crime. The Jack Smith trial may not see the light of day before the election. IT IS UP TO US - THE VOTING PUBLIC - TO SAVE OUR DEMOCRACY.
I spent the majority of my career in Russia and Central Asia - about 20 years - became bi-cultural, and wrote a bestseller From Democracy to Democrazy, by Graham (www.democrazy2020.org). This book informs the American voting public about the truth, provides the evidence and the proof, and suggests solutions to our nationwide choice between BIDEN - who is by far the most qualified man to hold the office of President, and TRUMP who is an amoral criminal facing 91 felony charges - all based on factual evidence, a convicted sexual predator, and a fraud - not to mention that he is also in bed with our arch enemy - the Russians. Putin is not a friend to the U.S. or Trump - as Trump would like the public to think. He is a KGB/FSB handler to Trump - NOTHING MORE.
During the Trump years in the WH: (1) the FBI reported an increase in crime and murder by 30%, and the 2020 hate crimes were estimated at 7,700 - the largest crime increase in our history; (2) in the second quarter of 2020, our economy dropped by 32.9% - again the largest drop ever recorded; and (3) Mitt Romney commented on the level of fear used by Trumpism - just like under Putin's regime in Russia. When a leader uses fear to control the votes of elected officials, it is called a dictatorship and NOT a democracy. Our government is still operating using fear - we are half way to a dictator-led country.
The Russian Congress is elected every five years. This country is 3 times larger than the U.S. No one in the lower or upper houses votes against Putin knowing they or a member of their family will be imprisoned or murdered. Few Republican members of the Senate or House have voted against Trump and he has continued to install this fear long after he left office. In fact, Gonzales (R) was one of the few Congressional members who voted to impeach Trump. He did not run for re-election and now has hired 24-hour armed protection for his family. What does that tell you about how our country operated with Trump at the helm?
Vladimir Putin was a secret service agent in East Germany, learned Hitler's mass mind manipulation tools, bribery, and the use of fear. He then brought these tools back to Russia and became the countries second President - which in reality is a one-man show - a dictatorship. In 1997 a book was published in Russia called The Foundations of Geopolitics. In this book is an outline of Putin's Presidential goals. Lo and behold at the top of his "wish list" is the destruction of the United States from within. Other goals included the annihilation of Ukraine, world domination, restore the world order to pre-NATO time, BREXIT, and so on. He is slowly fulfilling these goals and Donald Trump leads this demolition crew in the U.S. He must be stopped.
We need to develop a detoxification methodology that can universally be fed to Republicans so they - at a minimum - realize the corruption that Trump has unleashed in our country and how he is manipulating them. He collects millions of dollars from Republicans - hard earned honest money - to pay for his many criminal trials and then he doesn't pay his attorneys but pockets the money to support his lavish lifestyle. Time is running out.
__________________
Kirkus Professional Book Reviews stated: From Democracy to Democrazy is an intriguing and informative 'must read' from a women who is probably among the best-informed Americans on the terrifying realities concerning Putin's motivations, the KGB/FSB, business/crime in Russia, and most importantly the deep, dark clandestine relationship between Trump and Russia - a relationship which obstructed American politics and American lives from 2015 to today.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this message was obtained as research for the book From Democracy to Democrazy, is factual, and is the sole opinion of E. Graham and no one associated with the Democratic Party. It is copyright protected.
Thank you, Chris. I really needed this post this morning after seeing the CNN poll. (Not that polls mean a heck of a lot right now.) This is what we need! More positive press! It’s simply impossible that Trump should be back in ANY capacity. In a democracy, we get what we deserve, and we deserve way better than Trump. Biden has his faults, but there is not any that should dictate a vote for Trump.
Better serve Donny catsup in packets this weekend.....
😂Thanks!
America’s voters are beginning to THINK, again. Thinking is the “antidote to authoritarianism.”
I would like to believe that the rejection of authoritarianism or at least Trumpism was at the heart of the change here but I think it is far more likely that economics are driving this. It doesn't ultimately matter as the result is the same but if it is economics it makes the change more fragile.
Grassley. What a chump. He used to have integrity. Long since lost it to the Trump train. (Yes, previously from Iowa and yes, previously voted for him a few times....)
Things are looking up …!
Nehls and Grassley are saying the quiet part out loud, and handing Democrats a dandy advertising message. It is starting to dawn on me how Donald J Trump took control of the Republican Party! If they want to sabotage the American people, why just blurt it out?. Jeez, guys.
It is wonderful to see Biden rising in the polls, maybe more folks will look around and say “hey, Biden has done a decent job,”
Not trying to be a negative nelly...
Still such a long way to get to election day - lots can happen in the next 9 months. Have to stay alert, active and keep fighting. Like in golf, can’t be thinking about giving the acceptance speech with 9 holes to go…. No let up until the ball is in the cup on the 18th hole. Remember 2016, when all thought Clinton was in the chair, even before the Access Hollywood tape…
Exactly right.
Yes, it’s a long ways to the election, so caution is not unreasonable.
That said, let’s not skim over what’s trending: regardless of Biden’s approval rating, in a head-to-head match up with Trump, from a “quality” non-partisan polling company, Biden is trending upwards. Period. Take the good with the bad we’ve seen near the end of last year.
I believe it might have been Jay Kuo at “The Status Kuo” that highlighted the dearth of quality non-partisan polls (or maybe JVL or Charlie Sykes at The Bulwark), not the least of which are the incredibly HIGH costs of using large enough sample groups in order to be more accurate. ALL polls use algorithms to take their (typically small) sample and extrapolate out to the larger population. The larger your sample is to begin with, the less you need to rely on algorithms to correct for “under-sampling”. The problem with aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics is that when they do their averages, they ALSO use a lot of the crap, ie highly partisan pollsters with questionable data and algorithmic suppositions, and that ends up “polluting” their averages.
We know that the Electoral College will be won or lost at the margins, so a national ranking isn’t as significant as the 5 or 6 swing states and how they’re trending.
All that understood, let’s be happy at what Quinnipiac is telling us, and continue to work hard to get President Biden re-elected!
I didn’t get despondent when it looked like Trump was ahead. Not going to get too elated with it looking like Biden is. Thanks for this reporting on it, Chris.
It’s nice to hear some positive polls, yet don’t get too excited. Trying hard to not take each poll, in either direction, as meaningful, at least this far out. We have a long way to go but it’s a bit uplifting, rather than the constant drumbeat of negativity.
I keep hearing that however many Trump voters won’t vote for him if he’s convicted of a crime. I gotta wonder what their feeling is when loses civil case after civil case.
Steve Benen wrote on this today, too.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/polls-suggest-biden-can-win-re-election-weak-approval-rating-rcna136793?cid=eml_mda_20240202&user_email=3c53e6344c761a04a9c81a3ae2c7e48d8b925be7f6b2e8ab61b5ceaac2320963
Finally, some good news!! Fingers crossed that the trends remain in this direction up until the election.
Everything you write makes sense Chris, but politics has changed so much in recent years. My personal theory is that people are not interested in platform anymore, they determine their vote by two factors:
1-- party loyalty (mostly applies to older folks)
2-- personality of candidate
In a nutshell, that's it.
And tribalism/cultism
Chris, looking forward to your deeper dive but nice to hear something positive. I don’t want to wish the time away but once September comes, that will start the real grind. Summer means vacations and summer fun, not paying too much attention to politics.
As the economy continues to steadily improve and Donald Trump appears more in the national spotlight, the race seems to be shifting towards President Biden. This is excellent news for democracy!
National polls are irrelevant. All that matters is what happens in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and two or three other states. The rest of us just get to sit back and watch because, one way or another, our votes are irrelevant (I live in a very blue state, so much so that candidates never come here).
I live in Iowa, and I'm guessing Biden won't even bother to come here, which I understand. Trump doesn't need to visit here to win our 6 electoral votes, but I'm sure he will just because he loves to be treated like a God....and sadly there's a lot of that going on around here. I hope there's going to be a lot of sad Iowans come November.
Some of us may look really, really smart in November. Some pollsters (and horserace followers) may look really, really bad in November. Just sayin'.....
Trump is a dyed carrot-top maniac that grew out of a patch of manicure. He undoubtedly was compromised by the KGB at least 15 years or more before becoming President in 2016. Black cash from Russia was funneled through Trump's multi-million dollar real estate transactions. In fact, the Trump Tower in SoHo was entirely funded by Russians. In a 2008 NY conference, Trump Jr announced - as if it was a prize - that the Trump organization had received $100 million from a Russian bank. (www.businessinsider.com) Russian banks do not just lend money to foreigners without expecting something in return other than the interest on the loan balance. They loan money (1) to launder black cash into another country - millions of dollars which hurt the other country's economy, or (2) they are entrapping and obligating that foreigner to work for Russia. All banks in Russia are managed and controlled by the KGB/FSB - Russian secret service.
It is safe to say that Trump doesn't care where the money comes from, nor is he smart enough to understand the severity of his crimes. Trump and his family organization were
on the KGB payroll many years prior to being maneuvered into the U.S. Presidency by Russian KGB hacks. He sold his soul and our country to the Russians. Is he a traitor? - most likely.
The Mueller Report failed to adequately inform the American public about the Trump - Russian relationship and the implications for their personal lives. I believe this was due to the Barr-Mueller long-term friendship and the fact that Barr - as the AG - did not wish to be forced to litigate a presidential treason crime. The Jack Smith trial may not see the light of day before the election. IT IS UP TO US - THE VOTING PUBLIC - TO SAVE OUR DEMOCRACY.
I spent the majority of my career in Russia and Central Asia - about 20 years - became bi-cultural, and wrote a bestseller From Democracy to Democrazy, by Graham (www.democrazy2020.org). This book informs the American voting public about the truth, provides the evidence and the proof, and suggests solutions to our nationwide choice between BIDEN - who is by far the most qualified man to hold the office of President, and TRUMP who is an amoral criminal facing 91 felony charges - all based on factual evidence, a convicted sexual predator, and a fraud - not to mention that he is also in bed with our arch enemy - the Russians. Putin is not a friend to the U.S. or Trump - as Trump would like the public to think. He is a KGB/FSB handler to Trump - NOTHING MORE.
During the Trump years in the WH: (1) the FBI reported an increase in crime and murder by 30%, and the 2020 hate crimes were estimated at 7,700 - the largest crime increase in our history; (2) in the second quarter of 2020, our economy dropped by 32.9% - again the largest drop ever recorded; and (3) Mitt Romney commented on the level of fear used by Trumpism - just like under Putin's regime in Russia. When a leader uses fear to control the votes of elected officials, it is called a dictatorship and NOT a democracy. Our government is still operating using fear - we are half way to a dictator-led country.
The Russian Congress is elected every five years. This country is 3 times larger than the U.S. No one in the lower or upper houses votes against Putin knowing they or a member of their family will be imprisoned or murdered. Few Republican members of the Senate or House have voted against Trump and he has continued to install this fear long after he left office. In fact, Gonzales (R) was one of the few Congressional members who voted to impeach Trump. He did not run for re-election and now has hired 24-hour armed protection for his family. What does that tell you about how our country operated with Trump at the helm?
Vladimir Putin was a secret service agent in East Germany, learned Hitler's mass mind manipulation tools, bribery, and the use of fear. He then brought these tools back to Russia and became the countries second President - which in reality is a one-man show - a dictatorship. In 1997 a book was published in Russia called The Foundations of Geopolitics. In this book is an outline of Putin's Presidential goals. Lo and behold at the top of his "wish list" is the destruction of the United States from within. Other goals included the annihilation of Ukraine, world domination, restore the world order to pre-NATO time, BREXIT, and so on. He is slowly fulfilling these goals and Donald Trump leads this demolition crew in the U.S. He must be stopped.
We need to develop a detoxification methodology that can universally be fed to Republicans so they - at a minimum - realize the corruption that Trump has unleashed in our country and how he is manipulating them. He collects millions of dollars from Republicans - hard earned honest money - to pay for his many criminal trials and then he doesn't pay his attorneys but pockets the money to support his lavish lifestyle. Time is running out.
__________________
Kirkus Professional Book Reviews stated: From Democracy to Democrazy is an intriguing and informative 'must read' from a women who is probably among the best-informed Americans on the terrifying realities concerning Putin's motivations, the KGB/FSB, business/crime in Russia, and most importantly the deep, dark clandestine relationship between Trump and Russia - a relationship which obstructed American politics and American lives from 2015 to today.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this message was obtained as research for the book From Democracy to Democrazy, is factual, and is the sole opinion of E. Graham and no one associated with the Democratic Party. It is copyright protected.
OH, HAPPY DAY!!! So glad to be getting good news! Early days yet, to be sure, but let's hope this trend continues...