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Hello everyone!

Back when I worked at the Washington Post, I did a live chat EVERY Friday morning. It was one of the most fun parts of my week.

So now that I am on Substack, I wanted to re-start that tradition. This is the first of a weekly chat series I will do every Friday. I'll try to answer as many questions as I can.

Let's do this!

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Thanks everyone for joining me. I am going to do this EVERY Friday so spread the word! Have a great weekend.

Chris

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PS: will CIQUIZZA make a comeback?

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Stay tuned!

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Good morning, Chris! Excited to be a subscriber.

Can we finally bring back the Ciquizza?

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I am definitely going to be doing a podcast. And Ciquizza, which was the trivia show pod I did at WaPo, is in the discussion.

If you've got other ideas on what my pod should be, let me hear them! I am wide open.

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I second this!!

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Are you going to be sitting around Uncle Benny's table more often now?

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Ha!

I LOVE being on the Kornkeiser pod -- and say yes whenever they ask me. Always have, always will.

Thanks for listening!

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Thank you, Edith! I've always been a fan on your various platforms.

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Thank you!

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Is there a way to move Trump away from running in 2024? Or is he just a freight train with no breaks?

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Well, he is already running -- he announced his campaign late last year!

So, no.

More broadly, I think your question is whether anyone can stop Trump from being the Republican nominee for president.

To which I would say: Maybe.

I still think Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. He's the best known and best liked candidate in the field. And he's already won once, which gives him the experience on how to do it again.

But, he's not an overwhelming favorite. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has a real base of support -- in Florida and nationally and is the buzziest candidate out there right now. He also has demonstrated the ability to raise the vast sums you need to bring in to run an effective national campaign.

The real question I have is how Trump leaves the race if he winds up not winning. He has claimed election fraud in both the 2016 and 2020 campaigns -- and, in the latter campaign, refused to acknowledge he lost.

How does that change in 2024? Do you really think Trump suddenly turns over a new leaf and quietly drops out of the presidential race if it's clear he's not going to win? I don't. In fact, I have a really hard time thinking through how he would leave the race if he didn't win. Which is a problem for Republicans.

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How do see Nikki Haley navigating her commitment to not run in ‘24 if Trump is in, with would looks to be an inevitable run? In announcing a run, wouldn’t she have to rebuke Trump even if she goes the soft, “it’s time for the next generation” route?

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I think she is just going to try to memory hole the fact that she has said in the past that she wouldn't run against Trump.

In an interview with Fox last night she seemed to answer the question by saying that the times were so urgent and important that past commitments didn't matter.

I don't think Haley wins or loses the presidential nomination based on her past pledge to back Trump. But I DO think that Trump and his allies will savage Haley -- and remind people for as long as they can -- that she DID say she wouldn't run if he did.

Haley is an intriguing candidate to me. She has real ability and, as she likes to point out ad nauseam, has never lost a race. But she starts way behind Trump and DeSantis in the race, which is one reason why she is likely to get into the race sooner rather than later.

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I really really hope she runs and wins. An incredible American with a proud immigrant story👍

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Do you think George Santos (or whatever his name is) will survive and complete his two year term.

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GREAT question -- and I think one that is on the mind of anyone who follows politics these days.

Here's the thing: Santos is clearly a serial liar who made up large parts of the biography that he based his campaign on.

There's no debate about that.

But, here's another fact: It is REALLY hard to get rid of an un-indicted member of Congress. Members of Congress operate under a strict code of conduct which amount to this: Would I want to be pushed out if I was facing allegations but not charges?

The answer to that question is "no." Which means they are loathe to exile one of their own before charges come down.

Now, given the number of entities investigating Santos -- local, state and federal -- it's uniquely possible that he will be charged with something. And at that point it becomes much more likely he gets kicked out.

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Why didn't Prince Harry implicate his grandmother in the way he was treated. Wouldn't she have to sign off on anything that "The Palace" did to him?

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My knowledge of the British monarchy amounts to having watched all of the seasons of "The Crown." Which I think is probably insufficient to offer a detailed analysis of the Harry's current situation vis a vis the late Queen.

;)

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Do you think Joe Biden will run again? If so aren't his chances of winning very low given his popularity (or rather lack thereof) And otherwise, how will Democrats be able to get him to step aside and find another replacement without losing their credibility?

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Man that is the $25,000 question.

Reading the tea leaves, it certainly seems as though he is moving toward a bid for reelection.. I would say, in fact, that he's more likely to run today than he was 6 months ago.

But, Biden is legendary (and not in a good way) for struggling to make up his mind -- and even changing his mind at the last minute.

Which means, well, we have to wait and see.

Is Biden the best nominee for Democrats? Yes, his poll numbers are still not great (his approval rating is in the mid 40s, at best, these days). But the power of incumbency is a real thing. And, it's not at all clear to me that Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg (or whoever you think would be the nominee if Biden wasn't) gives Democrats a significantly better chance of winning the White House.

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Hey Chris

Do you see any upsets in the divisional round this weekend?

Thanks!

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What is the worst defeat of your fandom? FGCU beat Georgetown? (My daughter is a current FGCU student and opera major, EDITH Cillizza) or something else?

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Yes, that's the one. BRUTAL. Still can't watch the "high"lights.

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Hi. Do you think Pete Buttigieg or Kamala Harris could have a shot at winning the Democratic nomination if Joe Biden drops out? I feel like they're just not popular enough and when they do have publicity it's usually negative and they're both not getting out there enough to be viable candidates. If not, who else do you think could have a chance at winning a Democratic primary?

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I think you nailed it when you said "who else"?

SOMEONE would have to win the nomination and Harris and Buttigieg are probably the two best known Democrats nationally. Which would make them favorites in a wide open primary race!

Favorites but not guaranteed victors. I think if Biden didn't run, a whole lot of Democrats WOULD run -- including California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

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Newsom would be an interesting choice!

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Chris, never have I ever….listened to Bruce Springsteen. But I watched that one man Broadway performance and liked it. If you were counseling your mom about this, which 2-3 albums would you start her on?

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Ok, no problem.

Start with Greetings from Asbury Park.

Then Born to Run.

Then Nebraska. It's my favorite Bruce album by far. Spare and haunting.

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Wrong! The three best are Darkness on the Edge of Town, Born to Run (everyone agrees), and The Rising. There are also a ton of live videos on YouTube, which show Bruce at his best. Greetings is his first album, and while it has flashes of brilliance most of the songs are written as if he were being paid by the word.

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Hey Chris,

Wanted to start by saying that I enjoyed reading your posts on CNN which were always very informative and witty! I hope this isn't too personal but I wanted to ask what your next projects are after moving away from CNN. Do you plan on joining a new network or will you stick to your own brand and do more personal projects like this substack or a new podcast?

Cheers,

John M

P.S.: Your article about MTG was posted almost right after I thought to myself that it's intriguing how she's positioning herself to appear less 'radical' these days, especially after she was such a McCarthy supporter early on.

P.P.S.: Do you think Roberts will manage to convince his colleagues not to give in to the independant state legislature theory and cause chaos in the '24 election?

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Not too personal at all -- and thanks for the kind words about CNN.

I am weighing all my options to be honest. This is a sort of exciting time for me because I have a chance to think through a) what it is I really want to do next and b) where I want to do it.

Right now, I am REALLY enjoying writing for Substack. Writing has always been my first love so it was always the first thing I wanted to re-start after leaving CNN.

I have a few more independent things planned -- so stay tuned. And spread the word about this newsletter!

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What are the odds, do you think, of this current two-year term playing out, generally speaking, like the last one? We spent all of 2021 more or less deadlocked (on a bipartisan basis, that is), with nothing getting through the Congressional logjam, but then '22 was surprisingly fruitful. Could the House Republicans be sufficiently chastened this year to come to the negotiating table in '24? (Though the looming presidential election may impact this, for sure.)

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I am very skeptical of a productive 2024 for exactly the reason you outlined: The presidential race.

I just think that, especially with Trump running, that race will blot out the sun, politically speaking. And that there will be very little appetite to do much of anything legislatively as both parties prep and position for the 2024 race.

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Enjoyed your work since your days at the Post, and especially enjoyed the Friday chats back in the day.

My questions: are you going to see Bruce on this tour? And is Marco Rubio going to try to run for President again, or was his flameout last time so bad that he knows he has no chance?

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I absolutely will go see Bruce on this tour. If I can get tickets for something short of king's ransom.

As for Rubio, I don't think he runs this time. He's young enough to be able to bid his time and the prospect of running against Trump and DeSantis can't be appealing to him.

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How long do you predict McCarthy will hold onto the Speaker’s gavel before the GOP rabble rousers vacate the chair?

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I would set the over under at 15 months.

I just don't see how, in the end, McCarthy can accomplish the dual goals of running the House and placating the Freedom Caucus.

To do the first, he's got to make some compromises -- particularly with Democrats in charge of the Senate and the White House.

To do the second, he has to never give in and get the Freedom Caucus priorities passed through Congress.

Those two goals are at odds. And always will be. The tension between them will ultimately break McCarthy I suspect.

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Thanks Chris! I agree I originally thought he may be in Liz Truss territory but nothing important is going to come down the pile until the debt ceiling. I think that may be the breaking point.

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Well, even before the Freedom Caucus, Republicans were never really that keen on upping the debt ceiling while a Democrat was president. 2011 and 2013 were quite something, so even without the Freedom Caucus 'controlling him' McCarthy would've been unlikely to easily compromise on that.

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Team Dawson or Pacey?

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Pacey all the way.

The best thing about Dawson's Creek -- SPOILER ALERT -- is that Joey winds up with Pacey rather than Dawson. They had actual chemistry and a believable love story. Dawson was just in puppy love with Joey. Plus, he was SUPER annoying.

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This is the correct answer!

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Do you believe the Republican Congress will withhold money for our help with the war in Ukraine?? How much power does the House have anyhow ?!?!?!

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There is, without question, a bloc of Republican Members of Congress who want to slow the spigot going to Ukraine.

I am skeptical that their viewpoint will win out. The leaders of Republicans in both chambers -- Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell -- don't seem, to me at least, like that is a fight they want to have.

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In your opinion, will enough GOP US Representatives be indicted for Jan 6 or other unrelated crimes that they lose their slim majority this year?

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Absolutely not.

Per above, Santos could be indicted, for sure. But that has nothing to do with January 6.

I would be very very surprised if ANY Republican Member of Congress was indicted for his or her role on January 6. I think that is a pipe dream.

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What's your prediction for the debt ceiling fight? Will there be another crisis like in 2011 or 2013 or will a solution be found quicker this time?

(P.S. I was an avid reader of your CNN posts and watched The Point, great stuff!)

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Thanks for the kind words about CNN. I had a good run and really enjoyed my time there.

As for the debt ceiling, I am very pessimistic that we are going to get a solution until the absolute last second -- and maybe not even then.

The issue is this: McCarthy is only speaker because of the hard right in his party. And those are the people who are dead set on extracting spending cuts in exchange for a vote to increase the debt limit.

As a result, I just don't see him giving in on this. No matter how much pressure he gets from Democrats as well as McConnell who doesn't seem to want this stand off.

And, on the other side, the White House seems committed to not budging off their no negotiating ever stance.

So, yeah. I actually think a default is a possibility.

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What is the answer for Georgetown basketball and where did the fall from glory start IYO? Firing Ewing cannot be the only answer

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I think G'town was always punching a bit above its weight. it's a small (5,000 undergrads) Catholic school. It's not a natural national basketball powerhouse.

That said, where the program is today is a disgrace. And while I don't think it's all Ewing's fault, he clearly has to go.

I think we need to find a coach wholly outside of the Georgetown/John Thompson Jr. world and rebuild from scratch. The program can't go much lower at this point.

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How could the increasingly difficult Democratic Senate landscape impact the Presidential race?

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Let's tackle the Senate landscape first.

I don't think the average political person fully grasps what a bad cycle this is for Democrats. They are defending 23 seats (as compared to just 10 for Republicans) and they have to try to win races in places like West Virginia, Montana and Ohio -- not to mention Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Republicans on the other hand, have a relatively easy map for their side; all 10 seats are in states that Trump won in 2020.

How does that tough map impact the presidential? Well, in places like Nevada, PA and Michigan, how the parties' respective nominees are performing at the top of the ticket could have a profound impact down ballot.

I also think the negative outlook in the Senate for Democrats in 2024 could be a part of an argument Biden makes to the country in favor of keeping divided government in place

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Good Morning Chris. Enjoy your work. My question is this; with McCarthy already on record years ago as saying the goal of house investigations was to drive down the poll numbers of the opposition, are the republicans not at all concerned that the public will see through the smokescreen of the new house oversight panel and know that the goal of the panel is simply to agitate and aggravate rather than aggregate any worthwhile information ?

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I do not think they are terribly worried about that, no.

The reality is that the average American doesn't pay all that close attention to the every day workings of Congress. They might tune in to a January 6 hearing or the State of the Union but, aside from that, what Congress does isn't of top-of-the-mind importance to people.

I think these various investigations are primarily as way to throw red meat to the Republican base who badly wants Biden and his family investigated.

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How is the debt ceiling issue Going to play out this time? Do you see a scenario where Republicans let everything burn to the ground and hit reset?

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See above.

I am on the pessimistic side of a deal getting done here.

The problem is that if a deal doesn't get done, Republicans won't really be hitting "reset." A default on our debt would have drastic implications including a likely surge in inflation.

This isn't some artificial political deadline to screw around with. This is deadly serious stuff.

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So, besides the GOP, does anyone in the general public really care all that much much about Biden's classified documents kerfuffle? I'm certainly tired of hearing about it.

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I think people are generally a) aware that Biden had classified docs and b) surprised that he did.

I know I feel that way. Like, given the massive hubbub over Trump and classified docs and the fact that Trump is already running for the chance to take on Biden again, you would think that the president and his people would have been VERY careful on the whole classified documents front.

Does it move the needle for voters? I think we have to see what the special counsel finds. If there is evidence that Biden purposely took classified docs and concealed that fact well then nit's a problem. if it's purely accidental and the letter of the law was followed once the documents were discovered I think it's less of a big deal.

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