Friday Mailbag!

11 days left.

In the last 10-ish days I have been in Salt Lake City, Charlotte, New York City, Dallas and Richmond.

So, yeah, we are almost at the end of the campaign.

The final days are always INSANE. Every molehill gets cast as a mountain. Every poll is either totally right or dead wrong. Momentum is in the eye of the beholder.

What I would advise: Don’t get too high or too low. It’s very likely to be very close. That’s the only thing we know for sure. Getting too worked up about any one data point or development in the last 10 days is terrible for your mental health — and isn’t going to change the fact that the race is just extremely close.

Below are your questions from this past week. I got to a bunch of them. But not all of them. If I didn’t answer your question, hop on my YouTube livestream at 1 pm eastern today. I will try to get to lots more questions there!

This weekly mailbag is a feature usually reserved for my paid subscribers only. But until election day, I am giving away ALL of my content — including the mailbag! — for FREE.

Why? I think it’s important at the close of such a monumental campaign that as many people as possible have as much information and analysis about what’s happening — and the stakes of what’s happening — as they can.

I hope you appreciate this decision. And, if you are able, I hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber to this newsletter. Your support allows me to continue to produce truly nonpartisan and independent coverage. It’s $6 a month or $60 for a year.

Here we go! Soundtrack for today’s mailbag: “I Love You, Honeybear” by Father John Misty.

Q: Why does the media continue to ignore the seriously dangerous comments of Trump. I looked at The NY Times, Wapo, CNN, Fox and Politico and did not see anyone with a headline about Trump admiring Hitler. I am sure many don’t even know about these comments. Why does the press just ignore?

A: Uh, they don’t.

There was wall-to-wall coverage of Trump’s comments on every mainstream network and news site. TONS of it. (I have no idea when you looked for it or how you didn’t see it.)

I suspect, however, that what you are really asking is not “why aren’t mainstream media outlets covering this stuff?” (again, they are) but rather “why is this information and coverage not changing more peoples’ minds about Trump?”

Which I get. Totally. But that is more a human nature/psychology question than a media question. The media can’t make people care about the stuff Trump says. All that journalists can do is write about it — and note how incredibly radical those sorts of comments are in our politics.

If I had to venture a guess as to why Trump’s reported praise for German generals doesn’t move people? Because either a) they don’t believe it or b) they have already, long ago, accepted that he says and does all sorts of things no other politician would. It’s baked in.

Q: How do you plan to spend election night following the returns? Any preferred networks or people to follow?

A: I am starting to put together a plan.

I am going to be on set with NewsNation from 10 pm - 1 am. I am also trying to figure out whether I can do a YouTube livestream during all of that. I think that would be cool.

Any other ideas? Stuff you want?

Q: Would you consider doing a YouTube Livestream on Wednesday November 6 at around the same time (as well as Friday, because we might actually know more about the Big Race by the 8th)?

Might you award free year’s subscriptions to the (multiple?) winners of “guess the Trump-Harris popular vote %s” and “guess the electoral college”? (Entries open till maybe midnight Monday the 4th)

A: I LOVE both of these ideas!

Yes to a November 6 livestream. I have a speech at 11:30 am eastern in DC but will likely do it in the afternoon or even that night.

And, yes, to a election prediction contest and giveaway! Stay tuned for that next week!

Q: Are you going to create and election night cheat sheet for us?!

A: I can! Email me atcillizzac@gmail.com and tell me what you’d want to be in that cheat sheet!

Q: I live in TX. Michele Obama & George Bush always seemed to have a good rapport with one another in the public arena from what I could tell. Do you think the Obamas are wondering why George & Laura Bush continue to remain silent in who they support for President? Do you think their silence means they support Trump?

A: When George W. Bush left the White House, he basically disappeared from American public life.

I don’t think he ever loved it — and I think he was (and is) perfectly content to live in Texas, paint and occasionally make a public appearance.

His interest in politics is on the very low end of former presidents (Bill Clinton is on the very high end!) and I just don’t think he wants to wade into the morass of picking sides between Trump and Harris.

You can bash him for it. And lots of people are. But he’s just not someone who wants to play a role in national politics anymore.

Q: A few weeks (days?) ago, internal polling from Trump’s campaign was leaked suggesting he’s not doing as well as the public polling would suggest. Does that worry his team more than the public polls? Which polls do campaign lean on more—the internal or public—and why?

A: Good question.

Internal polls conducted for a campaign and public polls conducted (usually) for a media organization have different goals.

Internal polling is far less concerned about the head-to-head topline numbers and far more focused on testing messages that might work. Internal polling wants to help chart a path to victory. It’s not really used — or meant for — in-the-moment analysis.

Public polling is a snapshot in time. It’s not trying to provide paths to victory for either candidate. It’s simply saying: Right now, this is where the race stands and what the public cares about.

Internal polling wants to be predictive. Public polling less so.

Any time a campaign leaks internal polling, there’s a purpose. Usually it’s to raise money (We are behind and need more cash!) or to fight back against a growing public perception (Public polling might show us behind but we’re not!).

Q: Chris: I’m sure Harris has a bunch of experts telling her how best to approach the campaign but it seems to me her failure to tack to the middle is going to hurt her. Wouldn’t she have been more successful with independents and lost Rs if she could say “I need to represent all Americans and most are closer to the middle than the extremes”? It would help explain her shifting views and perhaps persuade the undecideds. I don’t think her “vote for me to save Democracy (but if I win I am at heart a California liberal)” is working. Every time I hear her this is what I think is really being said.

A: I think she spent a ton of time in the first 6 weeks of the campaign doing just that. In the debate and in virtually every public appearance she did, she would make an explicit appeal for people who didn’t agree with her on everything to be with her because the threat posed by Trump was so great.

And, of late, she has done a bunch with Liz Cheney, which, I think is aimed at those undecided Republican voters.

As for ending on the “democracy” message, I agree with you. I don’t think it’s her best close. To me, she should be talking about abortion morning, noon and night. And then late night too.

Q: It seems like Kamala Harris and Tim Walz could focus on a positive message for the presidency (their plans, hopes, and vision), and have all surrogates focus on the negative about Trump. I feel like this would give her the positive push to the finish we all crave…without ignoring the threat of a Trump presidency. Is that a realistic notion?

A: It’s not a bad idea but the reality of modern media is that what Harris (and, to a lesser extent, Walz) say will get the lion’s share of attention.

Like, Pete Buttigieg could bash Trump up and down but in the final weeks of the campaign that’s probably going to be drowned out by what the presidential and VP nominees are saying.

Here’s one interesting thing to ponder: I was taught that all campaigns had to end on a positive note — give people something to vote for as opposed to just something to vote against.

I am not sure that is true anymore. Maybe just another political rule that Trump destroyed.

Q: As the Senate seems to be moving toward a larger R majority (maybe 53 or 54), who are the Republican Senators you can see being a "brake" on Trump? Murkowski & Collins are obvious ones. But, once you get to 52, you need a few more independent thinkers vs followers assuming the House stays Republican (even if in name only).

A: You’ve named my top two. Others who have shown at least some willingness to not blindly go along with everything Trump says: Todd Young of Indiana, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia. Oh and Lindsey Graham. (HA! JUST KIDDING!)

Q: First of all, I subscribe to a couple of political newsletters. Names you’d recognize. Yours is the most informative, most readable of them all! Great analysis and insights! My question is the Senate. What do you think will be THE upset of 2024 that we’ll be talking about when all the votes are in?

A: THANK YOU! That is so nice to hear.

I wouldn’t count Sherrod Brown losing as a big upset. But I think he might lose. I could see Ted Cruz losing if Kamala Harris wins nationally — and loses Texas by 3 or less points. That would be a BIG upset. I think Deb Fischer is going to survive in Nebraska but it would be a BIG upset if she didn’t. On the Democratic-seat side, I guess I would be surprised if Democrats didn’t win Arizona and/or Nevada.

Q: Why won’t CBS release the 60 minutes broadcast in full with VP Harris? In a business where credibility is so important it’s confusing why they are not bring forthright with this material. It puts them in a very bad light.

A: I totally agree. We are in a moment in which trust in media is so low that we need to adopt a policy of radical transparency. (I am going to write more about this soon.)

I don’t think “60 Minutes” deceptively edited Harris’ answers to make her look better. In fact, I would be stunned if they had.

But by refusing to release the transcript, they play into peoples’ extant belief that the media is always trying to shape things to benefit Democrats.

If there’s no there there, CBS should want to release the transcript to clear its name.

Q: Everybody's clamoring about CBS not releasing the full tape of Kamala's interview. People are calling for full transparency and upholding journalistic standards. To an extent I get that......BUT.....Why is it that Fox isn't feeling the same heat for editing Trump's comments at the barbershop interview?

A: They absolutely should be. (If you have not followed the barbershop editing story, get caught up here.)

Q: Was anyone else as frustrated as I was with Harris' "answers" in the town hall? I am surprised the people asking the questions (or Anderson Cooper) didn't come back and ask the question again. I understand using the "boiler plate" but, she could have also made some attempt to give a "human" response to their heartfelt questions. (hell, even an AI response would have been appreciated).

A: I thought she was very mediocre. She talks WAY too much like a Senator — lots and lots of words that don’t add up to much.

Look, I think the reality that lots of Democrats don’t want to admit is that Kamala Harris is only a so-so candidate. After the initial glow wore off — She’s not Joe Biden! She’s way better than she was a few years ago! — it became clear that Harris isn’t a world-beater.

She does a good job when speaking to big crowds. But, she’s halting and mediocre in media interviews. And she doesn’t react well to being challenged.

If she loses, I don’t expect her to be in the top tier in 2028. I could be wrong but I think there are plenty of Democrats who will, quietly, admit that she is not super great.

Q: This may be a sore subject, CNN. I thought the way Anderson Cooper went aggressively after Kamala on her past views right after she explained how when she became VP she had more info at hand. Then Dana Bash sounded like a GOP taking head the way she went after her. What do you?

A: Not a sore subject at all! I loved my time at CNN!

As for Anderson and Dana, I know both of them personally. And I can tell you that they are both absolutely committed to fairness and accuracy.

I think Anderson did his job — make sure that Harris wasn’t just spouting talking points. And that when she tried to elide an uncomfortable reality, he called her on it.

Didn’t see Dana’s comments but, again, I know her and trust me: She is not biased in any way.

Q: I enjoyed your conversation with Chuck Todd this week and was interested when you asked him which candidate he'd rather be at this point in the campaign. So which candidate would YOU rather be?

A: Thanks! Doing those Monday chats with Chuck — and we are going to keep doing them through the election (at least) — have been really fun.

And, to your question, I legit just posted a video on my YouTube channel answering it!

Q: If the election isn't close at all, what impact will that have on the polling industry?

A: Catastrophic.

After the 2020 miss — polls underestimated Trump’s performance at the swing state and national level — pollsters insisted they had figured it out. That they knew what went wrong and how to fix it.

If there is another big miss — particularly if, again, the polls miss on the low end of Trump support, I think people are going to totally lose faith in polling. And, what’s worse, is that lots and lots of people will assume pollsters purposely got it wrong to mislead the public. (This is utter bullshit.)

Q: Pundits have said that far right and right wing polls, pushing positive numbers for Trump, have been inserted into the mainstream, hoping to affect groups such as 538 and the overall consensus of the nation. How much, if any, does this affect groups such as 538, and how do they counter balance?

A: I have heard that a lot lately. I think a flood of GOP polls could influence, say, the Real Clear Politics averages because they tend to weight all polls equally.

I am more skeptical it will change the 538 averages because I believe they give different weights to different polls based on track record. And I think they don’t factor some polls in at all.

I like the Washington Post swing state polling averages because they purposely only use high-quality polls in it.

Q: You mentioned today that a total turnout of 145 million - 10 million fewer than 2020 - "makes sense". Why does that make sense? Is there no indication that enthusiasm for Harris (as compared to Biden) won't increase the turnout in any meaningful way? Not to mention youth vote encouragement from the likes of someone like Taylor Swift. How does all of that factor into the turnout prediction?

A: Simple. In 2020 we were in the midst of a global pandemic. Lots and lots of states — and not just Democratic-controlled ones — changed voting procedures to make it MUCH easier to vote early, vote absentee etc.

Lots of those rules have been rolled back post-pandemic. Which means it’s a little bit more challenging, logistically, to vote.

And, 145 million turnout would be nothing to sneeze at! Remember that the 155 million people who voted in 2020 was the largest turnout EVER.

Lightning Round ⚡⚡⚡. One (or two) sentence answers only!

Q: Hi Chris! Do you have a World Series prediction and/or rooting interest?

A: Dodgers in 7. I love Shohei. Incredibly, I think he is actually underrated!

Q: How many times a day do you have the urge to report on something other than politics, like hamsters or the weather?

A: HA! I actually love politics. Maybe it’s a sickness..

Q: Louise Penny's new book comes out next week! Are you excited?

YES YES YES. Preordering now. And for people who don’t know what we are talking about, read this.

Q: What is your favorite Halloween candy? To give and get?

A: Ooooh! I really like Twizzlers. And Reese’s Pieces. My older son has a terrible peanut allergy so we don’t give out any peanut candies. Lots of Skittles, Starburst and the like.

Q: I finished watching the Mr. McMahon documentary last night. What was your favorite part?

A: The Costas interview where Vince gets super pissed and gets up in Costas’ grill. I had totally forgotten about that!

Q: Do you like to cook? If yes, favorite dish to make? Whether yes or no, favorite dish to eat?

I am more of an eater than a cooker 😂😂😂. Favorite meal? Anything my wife makes. BOOM! (Also: Pizza.)