Friday mailbag!

We made it.

Happy Friday!

The political world is still reeling from Donald Trump’s town hall on Wednesday night even as we creep ever closer to defaulting on our national debt. Plus, we got Mitch McConnell’s handicapping of the 2024 field!

Lots to talk about. Let’s get to your questions.

Q: I just read your post this morning about more Americans seeing Trump as more physically and mentally fit to be president than Biden. I mean, how? Trust me, I have concerns about Biden's age, but Trump is only four years his junior. Yes, Biden has gaffes, but Trump's public appearances are unhinged, he almost sounds like a caricature. And, physically more fit? Trump is obese, also tripped down the stairs of AF1, likely couldn't ride a bike, and outside of golf, engages in zero physical activity. I'm just really confused how a good amount of the public sees Trump as both more mentally and physically fit when there's quite a bit of evidence to suggest otherwise.

A: Perception matters a ton here.

And I think Biden’s manner of speaking — halting, stumbling at times — has a lot to do with it. And, yes, I think at least some (most?) of Biden’s manner of speaking has more to do with his lifelong stuttering issues rather than his advanced age. But here we are.

There have also been a few stories in the last 6 months or so that make clear Biden is slowing down and that this staff is having to adjust to make his schedule more manageable for him.

Trump, despite his poor diet and oft-state disdain for exercise, appears to be indefatigable. He is constantly talking, posting and moving.

That doesn’t mean he is healthy by any means. But it lends to the perception that he is vigorous. And that Biden is less so.

Q: Did CNN do the right thing in holding that Wednesday Town Hall with you-know-who?

A: Boy, tough question. And one, I think, without a simple “yes” or “no” answer.

I have been blunt about my general belief about covering Trump. He’s the Republican frontrunner to be the presidential nominee; you can’t just ignore him.

At the same time, he poses a unique threat to basic facts and truth — because he will say and do anything to try to make himself look good.

When you throw in a live TV setting with a largely-supportive Trump audience you are playing with fire.

I just don’t think there is ANY way to effectively fact check Trump (or even manage an interview with him) in a live setting. He just talks over you, obfuscates and lies. It’s impossible to keep up with. (Sidebar: I thought Kaitlin Collins did an admirable job.)

The best solution (I think): Only do taped interviews with Trump. That allows you to offer appropriate context and keep him from filibustering.

Of course, taped interviews don’t rate as well as live ones. So…

Q: I understand all of the criticism of CNN for giving Trump another national platform under the guise of “journalism”. What I don’t really understand though, given his behavior at the Town Hall, is how it helps him in any way. Isn’t a large part of his problem in a General Election the fact that he is so unappealing to Dems and independents given his behavior? That he can’t control himself, lacks a coherent temperament, and cares more about airing grievances than governing? How does public displays of boorish behavior, complete with sexual assault jokes and election denialism, among other things, help him expand past his base?

A: I think this is exactly right.

The spin coming out of the Trump camp after the town hall was that they were thrilled and that he had crushed it.

I mean, that may be true in a primary setting. Trump hit all the high notes — election denialism, media bashing etc. — that animates the party base (or at least a chunk of the party base).

But, we KNOW that those same positions alienate the voters he needs to win over (independents, moderates, suburban women) in a general election setting.

So, short term gain for long term pain.

Q: What are your thoughts on Trump's town hall AND the audience?

A: I am glad you asked about the audience because, for me, they were the most shocking (and important) part of the proceedings.

By my count, they laughed at 16 things Trump said. Among them: His mocking of E. Jean Carroll, his mocking of Kaitlin, his mocking of Ron DeSantis and Nancy Pelosi and his assertion that the country is going to hell.

The crowd didn’t just tolerate the meanness. They embraced it. They liked Trump’s bullying — and encouraged it. As Adam Serwer wrote famously/infamously back in 2018: “The cruelty is the point.”

I left the town hall more convinced than ever that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for president. He is an ur-bully — and there’s a big chunk of Republican voters who want to watch while others get pushed around and mocked.

Read this on that.

Q: If Trump wins - what is stopping the “establishment” from impeaching him early in his term and then moving on?

A: I am not sure if you mean the Republican or Democratic establishment.

I think, given the 2024 map, the most likely scenario if Trump wins would be a Republican controlled House and Senate. (It’s hard for me to see Trump winning the presidency and Republicans not retaking the Senate.)

Under that scenario, I see NO WAY Trump is removed from office. I mean, for what reason? Because he is who he has always been? And I would remind you that Trump was impeached twice by the Democratic-controlled House and acquitted both times in the Senate.

I guess you could make the case that if Trump is convicted (or further charged) that could be the tipping point for the Republican establishment to turn on him if he is elected president.

Count me skeptical.

Q: I believe that neither President Biden nor House Speaker McCarthy will retreat from their positions concerning the debt ceiling deadline. If that is true, who will suffer the greater political fallout?

A: Depressingly, I agree with you. I think people are DRASTICALLY underestimating the chances of a default.

And to answer your questions directly: I think the blame thing is playing out as we speak. Both sides are working hard to cast the other side as obstinate. I DO think that some of the positioning — and how people perceive which side (if either) is working toward a solution — that is happening right now matters.

If I HAD to choose a side likely to get more of the blame, I guess I would go with Biden solely because he is a) the president and b) better known to the average American than McCarthy or any other House Republican.

But I really do think it’s an evolving situation.

Q: In the 2022 midterms, I was disappointed and just a LITTLE surprised that 4 Republican senators who were considered maybe SOMEWHAT vulnerable all cruised to easy re-election (Grassley IA, Rubio FL, Johnson WI, Lee UT via a credible independent). What gored me though is that all 4 voted NO on ALL consequential legislation in the last congress: bipartisan infrastructure, COVID relief, bipartisan gun control, IRA. Even though in that list (among many other things) were reasonable measures to incentivize a move to green energy. Why did they pay no political price for their Nay votes? Blind partisan loyalty?

A: You are assuming that their constituents approved of those bipartisan measures and, therefore, would punish those Senators for voting against them. Nope!

If you are an incumbent sitting in a state that leans your way (Grassley, Rubio and Lee all qualify), the most dangerous thing you can do right now is be seen as aggressively working across the aisle with Democrats. Republican voters have zero interest in seeing that happen.

For Johnson, he just ran a much better campaign than his Democratic opponent (Mandela Barnes). Campaigns matter.

Q: I really appreciate your post, "We are laughing ourselves to political death." You nailed it with the cruelty that is supported, adored, and perfected by Donald Trump. It is what probably upsets me the most about it and watching him campaign. His total lack of empathy to others, even those who support him. As you said, he is transactional.

But, you also said that when others tried to be cruel, it backfired because Trump is just better at it. What do you think this means for the future of politics? Is this how Josh Hawley or Tom Cotton win, by being meaner than Trump? This is just so depressing, how can there be any civil debates and discourse that solves some real problems that we have? Tough to have answers, but he has shown how to win and lose on the biggest stage. How do you see future politicians acting?

A: It’s been proven time and again that Trump is judged by a different standard than any other candidate. It’s what makes him so hard to beat.

In that way, I think he is somewhat sui generis. As in, I don’t think Hawley or Cotton or any other Republican politician can get away with saying the same stuff and behaving in the same way as Trump. I think they would be met with significant disapproval from voters if they did so (as Rubio was when he tried it in 2016).

That fact makes him VERY hard to beat in a Republican primary where the vast majority of voters are favorably inclined to him. He just operates under a different set of rules.

Yet another reason why I think Trump is the clear frontrunner to be the Republican nominee in 2024.

Q: I need to know more about the $10 milkshake. Was it just milk and ice cream? Did it taste good? Would you pay $10 again?

My other question: No one seems to want Biden or Trump to run again. Given voter dissatisfaction, if the Libertarian party or another third party nominated a credible candidate (say Johnson/Weld but without the Aleppo gaffe), what do you think their ceiling would be popular vote wise? 5 percent? 10 percent?

A: YES! Just milk and ice cream. SCAM. And no chance I bought one. I am no sucker!(If you don’t know what I am talking about, read this.)

As for a third party ceiling, I think 5-7 percent of the national popular vote is about right. The reality is that while lots of people talk a big game about voting third party, when rubber meets road, they rarely do it.

People don’t like to think that they are throwing their vote away on someone who can’t win — which is the perennial problem of a 3rd party bid.

Q: I think that the 2024 General Election will be a Trump-Biden rematch, with the opposite result this time. Do you see it any differently?

I think the STRONG likelihood for the 2024 general is Trump vs Biden. As for who wins that, I tend to put a fingernail on the scale in favor of Biden — largely because (as we discussed above), Trump’s numbers are dismal among electorally-critical independents.

That said, I think it is VERY likely that the election is close. I don’t think, given where we are as a country, that a blowout for either side is even possible. And in a close election — especially one decided by the electoral college — anything can happen.

So, yes, Trump can absolutely win even if I think it is slightly less than a 50-50 proposition at the moment.