Why Joe Biden needs to get on the campaign trail ASAP

The incompetence argument is catching on.

(Joe Biden)

I saw two things almost simultaneously today.

1) This piece in the New York Times headlined: “Biden Campaign, Barely in Gear, Inches Toward 2024.”

Here’s the key bit from it:

For all the attention on Mr. Biden’s gauzy announcement video and the symbolism his campaign attributed to the day he entered the race — precisely four years after he began his 2020 bid and with the same message of saving the nation’s very soul — there is little evidence of the typical preparation for a national political campaign…

...But for an incumbent president in full control of his own re-election timeline, the decision to begin with such a skeletal operation has left even supporters confused. Democratic allies worry, some in public and more in private, that Mr. Biden and his political team — whose successes have come chiefly by running against Donald J. Trump rather than through organic liberal enthusiasm — are not displaying the necessary urgency for the coming battle.

2) This new, 60-second ad from Trump’s campaign titled “Mourning in America.”

Let’s start with the ad.

On at least 3 occasions, it expressly seeks to make the case that Biden is failing, flailing and falling:

a) Biden needs help getting his suit jacket on

b) Biden trips up the stairs of Air Force One

c) Biden falls off his bike

The message is literally unmissable: Whatever else you think of Biden, he’s clearly not up to the job of being president. And giving him a second term is a very risky bet.

It’s a drum that Trump has been beating for a while now. And one that appears to be resonating with the public. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows just how much.

A majority (54%) said that Trump possesses the mental sharpness it takes to effectively serve as president while just 32 percent said the same of Biden. Asked about the respective candidates’ physical health, the gap was even wider; 64 percent said Trump was physically able enough to be president while just 33 percent said Biden was healthy enough to be president.

And, as the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake noted:

Independents were significantly more likely to see Trump as being both mentally and physically fit, with only around 3 in 10 independents saying Biden was either of those things.

Those poll numbers are an absolute wow. What they suggest is that the stated concerns of voters over Biden’s age — he would turn 82 shortly after the 2024 election — are really stand-ins for broader concerns about whether the president is mentally and physically up to the job.

Biden, for his part, has tried to downplay his age as a factor in the race. Asked last week by NBC’s Stephanie Ruhle about why an 80 year old man should be reelected, Biden said this:

“Because I have acquired a hell of a lot of wisdom and know more than the vast majority of people. And I’m more experienced than anybody that’s ever run for the office. And I think I’ve proven myself to be honorable as well as also effective.”

That positioning borrows heavily from Ronald Reagan, who expertly parried attacks on his own age in the 1984 campaign — he was 73 years old at the time — during a debate with Democratic nominee Walter Mondale.

"I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign,” Reagan joked. “I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.”

It’s a smart response — and worked wonders for Reagan!

And it builds off of Biden’s longtime response to age questions — “watch me.”

The issue — at least right now — for Biden is that voters have a relatively small sample size on which to, well, watch him.

The New York Times noted last month that Biden has done the fewest press conferences since Reagan. This, from that piece, is important:

More than any president in recent memory, Mr. Biden, 80, has taken steps to reduce opportunities for journalists to question him in forums where he can offer unscripted answers and they can follow up. The result, critics say, is a president who has fewer moments of public accountability for his comments, decisions and actions.

The Biden team casts his low profile with the mainstream media as part of a coordinated plan to end run those traditional outlets — using the rise of new media to speak directly to the president’s supporters without the filter of the MSM.

Maybe! But Biden’s decision to avoid mainstream media coupled with the slow start of his campaign only provides fuel for attacks like the ones coming from Trump.

It’s also undeniably true — whether you like Biden or loathe him — that the 2024 campaign will be radically different than the 2020 race.

That race effectively ended — in terms of active campaigning — in early March 2020 as it became clear that Covid-19 wasn’t going away and posed a serious health threat to the unvaccinated masses (and especially to people Biden’s age).

While Republicans derided Biden for campaigning from his basement, the truth is that there was almost no person-to-person interaction during that campaign. The idea of a four-stop day in a swing state like Pennsylvania was unthinkable amid the pandemic.

The 2024 campaign will be back to normal. With the pandemic largely behind us, in-person events will be the norm. And given the focus on Biden’s age — and basic competence — voters and the media will be watching his every move closely to see how he handles the rigors of running for president.

There’s no way Biden can snap his fingers and have this age/competency issue go away. The only way he can address it is by showing his vigor on the campaign trail and, over time, hoping that’s enough to convince voters that he’s up to serving a 2nd term.

But, in order to do that he needs to jumpstart his campaign — and ramp up his appearances. Show and prove.