Friday mailbag!
Questions. Answered.
Donald Trump is indicted — again!
Mike Pence is running for president! So is Chris Christie! And, um, Doug Burgum!
What a week. Let’s get to your questions.
Q: Chris, I think you are one of the top 5 political commentators out there. Always one of my favorites. Do you feel there is any concerted effort to keep you off the airwaves? I read and see tons of folks who aren't as entertaining and informative as you. What's the deal with you not getting more attention in this insane political environment?
A: Well, thanks for the kind words. But, no, no conspiracy. I am purposely taking some time off from TV at the moment. Hopefully will get back into it (and on it) at some point in the not-too-distant future. Thanks again!
Q: What do you think about the "merger" of the PGA and the Saudi-backed LIV tour?
A: Don Ohlmeyer, the legendary ABC sports executive, once said “money is the answer to all of your questions.”
And I think that applies to the LIV-PGA merger. LIV, backed by the Saudis, had unlimited money and seemed committed to continuing to take players — lured by said money — from the PGA.
The PGA decided that it had had enough — and that all its alleged philosophical problems with LIV (including the Saudi backing) were less important than making peace.
Because, in the end, the answer to all your questions is money.
Q: What does your average House Representative think of the freedom caucus? It would drive me crazy to sit in the chamber watching their time wasting stunts.
A: I think there is a LOT of eye-rolling at the Freedom Caucus among the rank and file of the GOP Conference.
At the same time, they can’t be ignored because, while they lack the ability to nominate and elect a Speaker, they DO have the ability to stop up the works.
The last week is illustrative of that fact. They successfully blocked a vote on gas stoves — don’t ask — and forced the House into recess without taking any action.
I think of the Freedom Caucus like your annoying brother in law. You may not like him or see eye to eye with him on anything. But, he’s family so you’ve got to deal with him at holidays and the like.
Q: What’s your reaction to the news that Chris Licht is out at CNN?
A: Well, it makes me sad because a few of my friends in the PR department also got let go. I am never going to be someone who celebrates when journalists get fired.
I think CNN has had a rough go of it over the past year or so. I think it is STILL a really good brand with a ton of high-quality journalists working there. So, I am still rooting for them.
Q: Hello Chris, as one of favorite writers(!), what do you suppose will happen if there are two MAGA candidates in the Iowa caucus, when the MAGA strategy is to claim election fraud? Will this all but guarantee voter fraud coming from the second-place MAGA candidate? Please recall that Ted Cruz stole the Iowa caucus in 2016. (Arizona voter here who still is forced to listen to Kari Lake's claims)
A: Thanks! And yes, I think about this scenario ALL the time — especially when people like DeSantis talk about how they need to win Iowa next year as a springboard to the other states.
Cruz WON Iowa in 2016. Fair and square. But Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat, insisting, vaguely and without proof, that Cruz had somehow cheated.
If you think Trump won’t do the same thing again in 2024 if DeSantis (or anyone else) beats him in Iowa well then I have a great video chain named Blockbuster to sell you.
I think Trump refusing to admit defeat — and claiming fraud — blunts momentum for whatever candidate wins Iowa (assuming Trump doesn’t win) and makes it harder for them to surprise in New Hampshire and beyond.
Q: Chris Christie. Really?
A: Yeah, yeah I know. I think he is a looooong shot. That said, I think he could have a role to play in the race.
Christie is really good on his feet and, at least as far as I can tell, not afraid of Trump. Which is a potent combination — particularly in a debate.
I don’t think Christie can win a fight against Trump. But he could land a few body blows that leave a mark on the frontrunner. I think.
More on Christie here.
Q: Hi Chris, question for you. How do you talk to friends and family that have different politics views than yourself (or at least that you report on). For example, from a former R now D, it objectively looks like former President Trump is in legal trouble. Not because of a witch hunt or a swampy plan to keep him out of the WH, but because it seems like he broke the law (acknowledging that these things are tried in actually courts of law). Whoever this topic comes up, it is a flurry of, “what about Biden’s docs, Hunter’s laptop, Hillary’s server, etc.” It is to the point where two normal-ish people can’t chat about these issues. This must happen to you so how do you deal with it?
A: Honestly — and I know this is sort of depressing — but I just don’t talk about politics with people anymore.
Because of the places I have worked — CNN, WaPo — people just assume they know what I am going to think on an issue or issues. And it becomes an attempt to preempt a point that I am not even making!
I think politics is stay-away territory these days. There’s just too much nastiness in the ether.
Q: Could you please assess the impacts on the 2024 GOP POTUS primaries of the three new candidates who announced this week: Mike Pence, Chris Christie and ND Gov North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Would/could Burgum self fund his race to stay in through NH?
A: I think it’s fair to say all 3 are longshots, with Burgum being the longest of those shots. I think Pence tries to win Iowa and if he come in worse than third is probably out. I think Christie tries to finish in the top 3 in New Hampshire and, if he doesn’t, the money and appeal of his candidacy disappears. Burgum? Who knows! He is independently wealthy and I saw this morning is spending more than $1 million on ad in Iowa and almost that much on ads in New Hampshire. I am not sure that’s money well spent, candidly, but he’s rich so he has the luxury of doing what he wants with his money. Free country!
Q: I loved you column about bullying the bully. Who else should work with Christie to bully the bully?
A: Good question! Like I said above, I don’t think Christie can win a one-on-one fight with Trump. But, if a few people ganged up to go after Trump that might make things more interesting.
The most obvious candidates are DeSantis and Pence, both of whom have shown a willingness to attack Trump in the early days of their candidacies. The question for both of them is whether they are willing and able to keep it up.
Q: Do you think Tim Scott will try to turn being a bachelor with no kids into a positive by taking a stance of "this just means I have more time for YOU, the American people!"
A: That’s good spin! I wrote about Tim Scott’s bachelor status here.
Q: By most measures the US is in pretty good condition. Job growth is strong, stock market's up, the nation isn't embroiled in any draining overseas crisis such as Vietnam or the Iran hostages, there's little domestic turmoil. So how can it be that Pres Biden has such low approval? Do focus groups identify any specific, consistent complaints?
A: It’s a very fair question — and one I ask myself pretty regularly.
Here’s the conclusion I’ve come to: People really don’t like how old Biden looks and acts (and is) — and they are very concerned that he may not be up to the job he is running for.
That’s the message that polling points to, with a majority of people saying Biden shouldn’t run again and citing his age as the main reason why they feel that way.
The problem, of course, for Biden is that he can’t change that fact. He is old! He’d be the oldest person ever elected to a 2nd (or 1st) term. And he has slowed down in the last few years. I mean, the man is 80!
I just think Biden’s age and ability to do the job is at the center of his low numbers and therefore are going to be a huge focus of the campaign next fall.
Q: How is it possible that our two major political parties are going to nominate these two candidates again? What has to happen before there's a viable third party or we just get rid of parties in general? When can we stop pandering to the "base" of either party and start appealing to the majority of the country?
A: Man this is the $10,000 question. Somewhere between 35 and 40-ish percent of people approve of either Biden or Trump. Large numbers say they wish other people were running.
And yet, I think it is VERY likely that Biden and Trump are the nominees come next fall.
Why? I wish I had an easy answer. I think part of it is that running for office in this day and age is a total nightmare — and scares away a lot of good people. (That’s especially true on the Republican side, with Trump looming over the proceedings.)
I also think name ID is a big part of this. Most people don’t pay close attention to politics. Or, really, any attention at all. Which means that when they vote (if they vote) they just go with a name they know. And everyone knows Biden and Trump. It may be just that simple — depressingly.
Q: If you were a betting man, what are the odds that Trump will not be the GOP nominee next year, either because someone bested him or because he'll be in too much legal trouble?
A: Under 25%. But ask me again in 2 weeks.
I don’t think this classified documents indictment fundamentally impacts Trump’s chances at the Republican nomination but, who knows, maybe this is a moment where a chunk of the GOP electorate says “no more!”
Again, I very much doubt it. But I would love two weeks to see what the polling shows with the second indictment of Trump baked into it.
If his numbers don’t move or they go up, take that 25% and turn it into 10%. Or less.
Q: Why you do think Trump hasn't tweeted since being reinstated to Twitter? Would love to hear your theories. Can he keep it up until Election Day 2024?
A: I believe he has a clause in his Truth Social deal that he HAS to publish first on Truth Social. And has to wait a period of time before he posts anywhere else. Plus, remember that Trump owns a stake in Truth Social. So he has a very real interest in doing everything he can to make it succeed.
All that said, I bet it is killing him not to be able to post on Twitter!
Q: How did you and Mr. Tony meet and become a regular on his show ? BTW…I wish you were on his podcast more often.
A: I started as a fan and listener of the show. I knew his British producer, Nigel, through mutual friends (and Georgetown connections) and he asked me, as a sort of tryout, to come on the show one time.
Tony liked me. And so I got to keep coming back. Honestly, it’s the thing that brings me the most joy out of anything I do on a weekly basis — outside of watching my kids play sports.
As for being on more, I am going to be on once every other week going forward! Also, if you don’t listen to Tony Kornheiser’s podcast, you need to.
Q: I know you are a fan of Patrick O'Brian's Aubrey-Maturin series of historical sea fiction. While "Master and Commander" was true to the spirit of the canon, it was a mash-up of several of the novels. Which five books in the series would you most like to see on the big screen - true to their written versions. (Which, unfortunately, will never happen because they are too expensive to film.) My 3 would be (in this order): (1) Master and Commander, (2) Post Captain, (3) The Letter of Marque (4) The Reverse of the Medal and (5) The Yellow Admiral
A: I LOVE this series. I think mine would be: Post Captain, Letter of Marque, Reverse of the Medal and, of course, Master and Commander.
When do we get to start pointing out to people who say Biden is too old and infirm to run the country that he has, in fact, been running the country for a couple years now? Like, tell people to turn off the noise and look at what’s actually happening? What decision do we think he made differently because he’s too old and weak?
Because I’m not seeing much. Actuarial issues aside, the man looks a lot more capable of running the country on a sound basis than the plausible alternative.
Here's a question for next week's Friday Mailbag, perhaps: What are your thoughts regarding ranked-choice voting. The very idea of it, does it result in higher quality winners, would/could it ever be adopted broadly across the nation (particularly for Presidential primaries and generals). I was thinking about this while reading one of your mailbag responses today regarding why the Rs and Ds appear to be headed toward the same two nominees again. I like to think I'm one that pays attention to politics, above mere name recognition, but I do introduce into the calculous of my vote who is most likely to win so I don't waste my vote. I am attracted to ranked-choice voting, which is not available where I vote.