Friday Mailbag!!!!

Your questions, answered.

Happy Friday!

We made it!

A few reminders before we get to what was on your mind this week:

1. I am doing a livestream on my YouTube channel today at 1 pm eastern. These have been fun! Come join!

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To the questions! (Soundtrack for today’s mailbag: “Three,” the new album from Four Tet.)

Q: With the election seven-plus months away, how do we (you, me, your readers, and other rational people) navigate the daily landmine of the 24-hour news cycle that is focused on our broken government and this crazy, seems like everything is riding on it, election? I try to stay our away, or at least take breaks, but as Michael Corleone says, "I thought I was out and they pull me back in". Help!

A: HA! I get it! I really do!

And, honestly, that is what I am here for. You can’t — and, honestly, for your mental well being, you shouldn’t — pay attention to every little thing that happens in the course of a day or a week in the presidential race.

The reality of our modern media (and social media) environment is that everything is treated as a mountain these days. There are no molehills anymore. But, if EVERYTHING is the BIGGEST DEAL EVER, how are you supposed to really differentiate? You can’t.

That’s where I come in! I view my role as being a trusted guide through this world. I have been watching, reporting on and analyzing politics for the better part of the last three decades. (I am old!) I know (mostly) what matters and why. I can be your eyes and ears, only flagging for you the stuff you REALLY need to pay attention to.

I really believe in this mission. And I think I am good at it too!

Q: How do you reconcile Trump losing 20-30% of the GOP primary voters yet leading Biden in head to head matchups?

A: So, let’s take the Georgia primary as an example — since a) it happened earlier this week and b) we expect Georgia to be a swing state in November.

In Georgia, Donald Trump won easily (84.5% of the vote) but Nikki Haley, who isn’t running anymore, got almost 78,000 votes. Which seems like a lot!

As I noted earlier in the week, the vast majority of Haley’s votes were cast in the early vote period — while she was still an active candidate. That doesn’t mean NO ONE voted for her out of protest of Trump being the nominee, but the protest vote was a bit overblown as a storyline.

Also, Georgia is an open primary state. Which means you don’t have to be a Republican to vote in the GOP primary. And I assume at least some number of non-Republicans crossed party lines to vote for Haley as a way to send a message to Trump.

So, I think there is a little less than meets the eye when it comes to the protest vote against Trump.

Then there’s this: For Republicans who do want to cast that protest vote against Trump, that is a different calculation than voting for Biden (or not voting at all) in the general election. They may MUCH prefer Haley to Trump but they are not Democrats. — or even close to it.

Which means that when presented with a binary choice between Trump and Biden, they go with Trump — even if they don’t like him and wish he wasn’t the nominee.

Make sense?