Here's the tell on why Glenn Youngkin isn't seriously considering running for president

Too late, bro.

(Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin/Getty)\

The news — via Axios —shot across the political world Monday night: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is reconsidering his past decision not to run for president in 2024.

Big news!¹

But buried within that story was a paragraph that belies how seriously Youngkin is actually looking at the race. Here it is:

“Youngkin faces high-stakes state legislative races in November. So an announcement about a presidential race is likely to wait until right after that, Republican sources said.”

Eh, what?

Yes, Virginia has off-year elections. And, yes, Youngkin has made winning those elections a major priority.

But, it is literally impossible to wait until November and have a serious chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination.

Look at the history of recent late entrants for proof.

In the 2020 race, billionaire businessman Mike Bloomberg got into the Democratic contest in late November 2019. Despite spending oodles of his own cash, Bloomberg was never a factor — dropping out within 3 months.

Just 10 days before Bloomberg got into the race, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick had announced his own candidacy for the Democratic nomination. Like Bloomberg — except without unlimited money at his disposal — Patrick was never relevant in the race. He was out by mid February 2020.

Back in 2012, then Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced his candidacy in August 2011 — to much fanfare and talk that he would immediately be the race’s frontrunner. He was out of the race by January 2012.

The simple fact is that it takes time to build a national political operation. You need to recruit political pros and activists in early states. You need a voter identification and turnout program. You need to lavish those states with the attention their voters believe they deserve.

And, yes, unless you are Bloomberg, you need money. (Youngkin is wealthy but not fund-an-entire-presidential-campaign-yourself wealthy.) Raising that money — in $2,000-ish chunks — takes a massive amount of time. Building a financial organization that can raise you the hundreds of millions you are likely to need is hugely labor intensive.

All of this goes double for Youngkin who a) isn’t all that well known nationally (certainly not as well known as Perry circa 2012) b) has only run for office once before and c) has never raised the sort of money he would need to make a real go at 2024.

Factor all those things together and it’s a pipe dream that Youngkin could get into the race in November and have a legitimate chance at being the nominee.

Which leads to the natural question: What is he doing then?

After all, someone told Axios he was reconsidering. And Youngkin put out this video recently which, for all the world, looks like a precursor to a presidential announcement.

So, a few theories:

1. Youngkin isn’t going to run but wants to keep his name in the national mix. This seems the most likely motivation behind his latest moves — and the Axios story. The longer Youngkin is on the list of those mentioned as 2024 candidates, the more his name gets out there to national donors and activists. And the more that, when the veepstakes come around, his name is on their lips. Remember that Virginia limits its governors to a single term — utterly dumb — and come 2025 he will be out of a job no matter what. Being part of the great mentioned is good for business. But, Youngkin ultimately won’t run.

2. Youngkin wants to keep a toe in the water in the event the race implodes. Put yourself in Youngkin’s shoes today. What he sees in the 2024 Republican race is this: A hugely unpredictable frontrunner in Donald Trump and a flagging alternative in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — with every indication that the two of them are going to go at one another hammer and tongs in the coming months. Given that level of uncertainty, it makes some sense for Youngkin to stay in the mix — even tangentially — in the event Trump and DeSantis bludgeon one another to the point where it looks like neither of them can win.

3. Youngkin actually thinks he can win. As I’ve made clear, the history of very late entrants into a presidential primary is, um, not good for Youngkin. At the same time, politicians (and their senior advisers) tend to believe that they are the ones who will buck history — that they can get in at the last minute and storm to the nomination. So, maybe that’s what Youngkin is thinking; let the combatants fight it out for the next few months and then swoop in as a savior candidate.

Look. As Donald Trump proved in 2016, history is only right until it isn’t anymore. But, there’s an awful lot of history that suggests that if Youngkin really does stick to a November timeline to make up his mind about the presidential race, it will already be too late.

1. Youngkin adviser Dave Rexrode took to Twitter to dispute the piece. “Governor Glenn Youngkin is focused on Virginia,” he wrote. “Anyone who anonymously says otherwise probably isn’t as close to the Governor as they want people to think.”