House Republicans and the definition of insanity
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
After five rounds of voting on Tuesday morning, House Republicans — by a vote of 117-97 — chose Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer as their next nominee for Speaker of the House.
Don’t be fooled. Emmer’s chances of winning the 218 votes he needs to actually be elected Speaker in a vote of the full House look, well, shaky.
Consider:
Emmer, the GOP Majority Whip and the favorite going into today’s voting, was unable to win the majority of the majority (110 votes) on any of the first four ballots. He only won when the field of 9 was pared down to just him and Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson.
Emmer’s final vote total of 117 was 7 votes less than Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan got in the vote of the House Republican Conference last week. And you know how that story ended.
In a vote following Emmer’s win aimed at codifying support and opposition to him, more than two dozen of his Republican colleagues voted either for another candidate or “present.”
Of that group, the vast majority identify with the House Freedom Caucus, the group of the most conservative members of the chamber who, not coincidentally, removed Kevin McCarthy as Speaker three weeks ago.
If you got deja vu just now, you are not alone! While Emmer is a new name to be nominated for Speaker, the same problem remains: Any Speaker nominee can afford to lose only four GOP votes. And there doesn’t appear to be a single person in the Republican conference — including Emmer — who can make that math add up.
Emmer, following his “victory,” immediately announced he would huddle with the holdouts. There was no mention of what (if anything) he would offer them in exchange for their votes.
And, the problem for Emmer, is that the Freedom Caucus types may not want anything. They may have already made up their minds — based on his past voting record.
Emmer, after all, was one of 46 Republicans to vote to codify the rights of same-sex couples last summer. Emmer also voted in favor of the bipartisan debt limit deal this spring. And, perhaps most damaging of all for arch conservatives, Emmer voted to certify the 2020 presidential election. The horror!!
Just in case those opposing Emmer needed more encouragement to stay firm in that position, former president Donald Trump chimed in Tuesday afternoon on TruthSocial.
I have many wonderful friends wanting to be Speaker of the House, and some are truly great Warriors. RINO Tom Emmer, who I do not know well, is not one of them. He never respected the Power of a Trump Endorsement, or the breadth and scope of MAGA—MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He fought me all the way, and actually spent more time defending Ilhan Omar, than he did me—He is totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters. I believe he has now learned his lesson, because he is saying that he is Pro-Trump all the way, but who can ever be sure? Has he only changed because that’s what it takes to win? The Republican Party cannot take that chance, because that’s not where the America First Voters are. Voting for a Globalist RINO like Tom Emmer would be a tragic mistake!
While Jordan’s failure to secure the Speakership showed the limits of Trump’s influence — particularly among moderates and members in swing districts — there is no question that the former president still commands considerable loyalty among the Freedom Caucus. And, remember, most of the Freedom Caucus was opposed to Emmer even before this anti-endorsement from Trump.
What’s Emmer’s best case scenario(s)? I can think of two:
House Republicans, fed up with this three-week morass and concerned about the political blowback from looking feckless in front of the American public, vote for him to make it all end.
House Democrats cut a deal with Emmer to either support him in sufficient numbers to make up for the likely losses he will suffer among the Freedom Caucus or some number of Democrats vote “present” — thereby lowering the raw number of votes that Emmer would need to become Speaker. (He only needs a majority of Members voting — and “present” votes don’t count as votes.)
Could either of those things happen? Sure! Anything is possible!
But, if you were a betting person, the odds would be on a) Emmer dropping his Speaker’s bid without a full House vote or b) coming up short of the 218 votes he needs in said floor vote.
Which would send Republicans back to square one. Again. Again.
I'm thinking it's time for Democrats to consider your second option and just end this charade.
Emmer would be wise to talk to some moderate Democrats who might be inclined to be absent in order during the vote to end the stalemate.