House Republicans have backed themselves into a very bad corner

Rock, meet hard place.

(Kevin McCarthy and Jim Jordan)

The second vote on whether Jim Jordan should be the next Speaker of the House did not go well for Jim Jordan. He lost 22 Republicans (two more than he had on Tuesday) and dipped to 199 votes — the lowest vote tally of any candidate for Speaker in the modern era.

(Congrats, Jim! You made history!)

You probably heard about this.

What you may not have noticed is that both just before and just after the second Jordan-for-Speaker vote, key House Republicans made clear that they were not interested in expanding the powers (and duration) of Patrick McHenry’s role as Speaker pro tempore.

There was this from GOP whip Tom Emmer to CNN’s Manu Raju just before the vote: “[He] told me that the resolution to empower Patrick McHenry is a ‘non-starter.’”

And this from former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy just after the vote:

Think of this, normally, you have an election in November. So I had from November all the way to January to work on winning speaker. Jim Jordan’s had less than 48 hours here, okay? And so the whole idea of even selecting a Speaker Pro Tem if you’re not able to do the job is to keep the continuity of government running until you’re able to select a new speaker.

Plus, Jordan himself seems dead set against the elevate/extend McHenry strategy too.

So. That leaves us with these three basic facts.

1. Jordan is very unlikely to get to 217 votes — at least anytime soon

2. There is no obvious Jordan alternative in the GOP conference who can get to 217 votes

3. Republican leaders are opposed to McHenry staying in the chair for any extended period of time, a proposal that would likely need Democratic votes to pass

Which adds up to an unsolvable problem for Republicans. Because if NO ONE can get 217 Republican votes and you refuse to do any sort of deal that requires Democratic votes well then you are well and truly stuck.

Now, things can change! What McCarthy or Emmer or even Jordan say right before or after a failed Speaker vote might not be what they think in, say, a day when the intractable math of all of this becomes apparent.

It could well be that House Republicans, sick and tired of having their dysfunction on display for the country to see, decide to cut bait — backing a measure that would allow McHenry a broadened mandate for some set period of time.

(Remember, of course, that such a move would require a simple majority in the House. Which means that if just four Republicans abandoned McHenry, Democratic votes would be needed to pass it. And if Democratic votes are needed, well, then you can be sure Hakeem Jeffries is going to demand some concessions for those votes. Which may be unpalatable to Republicans. And around and around we go.)

Now, assuming they could get McHenry a majority, it’s worth spending a minute on his calculations.

First, he is an ambitious guy. Who undoubtedly would like to be Speaker (not Speaker pro tempore — even in an expanded role) some day. So, does he even want this job — if it precludes him from being the real out-and-out Speaker at some point in the future?

Second, and contradictorily, if you name McHenry as acting Speaker for, say, three months, you are effectively turning him into the Speaker. The math problem that Republicans currently have is not suddenly going to resolve itself in a week or even a month or two. Which could have the effect of keeping McHenry in the job — because inertia — for much longer than anyone is thinking about right now. Would that appeal to him?

Back to the big picture. Republicans have backed themselves into a very, very tough corner. They can’t solve their problems amongst themselves (at least not yet) and they seem to be refusing help from Democrats (at least so far).

It does not take a PhD student in American political systems to understand this fact. And the reality is that Republicans risk tearing themselves apart by continuing to stay in this state of limbo. They barely look like a party, much less one that the public can trust to govern effectively.

All of which would suggest that a solution will be found — and quick.

Buuuuuuut….running counter to that assumption is the fact that there is no one in the party — including Donald Trump — who can bring order to this chaos or even provide the GOP a north star to which they can orient themselves.

(Sidebar: Trump, in theory, might be that person but is far too focused on himself and his own problems to dedicate any real time or sweat equity to solving this problem in the House.)

So, then, what happens next? If I HAD to bet, I would lean to the McHenry elevation and extension as the most likely scenario. But, when and how? Damned if I know!