How Chris Christie could matter

Kamikaze anyone?

(Chris Christie)

Chris Christie, it appears, is going to be running for president in 2024.

This, from the New York Times seems to confirm it:

Allies of former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey have formed a super PAC to support him in the nascent Republican primary, as he makes preparations for a likely campaign kickoff in the next two weeks, according to an official with the group and others briefed on the matter.

You don’t start a super PAC — and staff it with well-regarded national operatives — unless you are running for president. Just doesn’t happen.

There will be a natural tendency to dismiss the former New Jersey Governor’s candidacy. After all, he bombed out of the 2016 race — finishing 6th in New Hampshire primary — and then spent the next four years worshipping at the shrine of Trump.

Which, among other things, gave us this:

So, we have that going for us, which is nice.

Look. There’s no question that Christie is a significantly reduced figure in the GOP. Once seen as a straight talking outsider in the mold of John McCain, Christie is now regarded as compromised by his long dalliance with Trump and Trumpism.

And there’s also no debate that the party has moved on from the sort of Republicanism — moderate, pragmatic — that Christie was selling.

With all that said, I do think there is a potentially impactful role for Christie in this Republican primary: As a kamikaze pilot against Trump.

Consider the following:

1. Trump has NEVER faced a sustained and relentless attack from a Republican rival during the deciding moments of a campaign. Jeb(!) Bush called him a “chaos” candidate but the former Florida governor’s heart was never really in it. Marco Rubio went after Trump’s hand size — for a day. Ted Cruz called Trump “utterly amoral” and a “sniveling coward” but the race for the 2016 nomination was already effectively over.

2. Christie, due to the close proximity between New York and New Jersey, knows Trump (and his record) as well if not better than almost any Republican in the country.

3. Christie, who is widely seen as a has-been in Republican politics and is a decided long shot in this race, has absolutely nothing to lose. If he loses this race, there is no future bid for Christie out there. This is his last shot.

4. Christie is a proven commodity on the national stage and will not be overwhelmed either by the moment or by Trump on the debate stage. He is also good on his feet and quick-witted.

Combine those four factors and suddenly you can start to see an opening for Christie to matter in the race.

That opening is simple: He has to make his campaign entirely about taking down Trump. That has to be his complete and total focus — refusing to get involved with the others in the race.

And, at least at the start, that appears to be what Christie is going to do. Again, from the Times:

Mr. Christie’s candidacy is likely to to focus in part on drawing a stark contrast with former President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Christie supported Mr. Trump in 2016 and worked with him during his presidency, but they split over Mr. Trump’s claims on election night in 2020 that the race was stolen from him….

…Mr. Christie “is willing to confront the hard truths that currently threaten the future of the Republican Party,” [super PAC head Brian] Jones said in a statement. “Now more than ever we need leaders that have the courage to say not what we want to hear but what we need to hear.”

The questions I have are a) how committed is Christie to crashing his candidacy into Trump and b) even if he is fully committed to doing so, will it work?

Christie has insisted in the run up to this race that he wouldn’t run solely as a Trump stopper, that he would have to see a path to victory.

“I’m not a paid assassin,” Christie told POLITICO in April. “When you’re waking up for your 45th morning at the Hilton Garden Inn in Manchester, you better think you can win, because that walk from the bed to the shower, if you don’t think you can win, it’s hard.”

Soooooo….yeah.

It’s also not entirely clear to me that Christie could do the sort of damage to Trump that some — especially establishment types — within the party hope and pray he will.

The longer Trump is on the national stage, the more I become convinced that his proclamation that “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters,” has a lot of truth to it.

There are simply people who are going to be with Trump no matter what. They stuck by him through an election loss. And January 6. And his indictment over hush money payments made to a porn star. And his being liable for sexual abuse of E. Jean Carroll.

And they will stand by him if and when he is indicted either in the classified documents case or the Georgia election meddling case.

So, Christie taking shots at Trump on a debate stage? Is that the straw that breaks the camel’s back with that group? Almost certainly not.

The bigger question for me is whether — beyond the hardcore Trump loyalists — a sustained Christie attack on Trump could make some difference. There’s clearly a segment in the party — mostly aligned behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at this point — who are looking for an alternative to Trump or at least are open to a case being made that Trump should not be the GOP nominee.

That’s Christie’s constituency — to the extent there is one — and the people where, in theory, he could have the most impact. I am very skeptical he could convince those voters to be for him (too much water under the Trump bridge there, methinks) but could he raise enough doubts in their mind about Trump that they decide to go elsewhere with their support?

What’s clear to me is that Christie does fill a void in the race. No one — not even DeSantis! — seems entirely comfortable taking Trump on directly and repeatedly. Christie, I believe, will do that.

Will he go all the way? Will he sacrifice himself and his chances (minimal though they are) on a full frontal assault that may well leave him (even more) persona non grata within the Republican party?

That’s the question. Because that’s how Christie matters in this race. Anything short of a kamikaze mission seems destined to fail.