How does Donald Trump lose?

It's impossible.

(Donald Trump)

Ron DeSantis and his campaign are mid-implosion.

Over the weekend, Jeff Roe, the top strategist at DeSantis’ much-hyped Never Back Down super PAC, quit — following a story critical of him (and his consulting firm) in the Washington Post.

It was the latest in a series of senior staff departures for DeSantis, and the most major of them since Roe had been at the heart of the Florida governor’s strategic team from the beginning.

DeSantis is sinking — in Iowa and nationally. The notion that he was (or is) the only serious alternative to Donald Trump is gone. Nikki Haley has replaced him in that role. DeSantis continues to lumber on — and likely will through Iowa next month — but the writing is on the wall for all to see: It is (almost certainly) over.

Which is bad for DeSantis! But as often happens when you realize you have nothing left to lose — freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose! — DeSantis told a truth about Trump over the weekend that gets to the fundamental problem of anyone trying to beat him.

Here’s Ron:

“He will say it's stolen no matter what. He will try to delegitimize the results. He did that against Ted Cruz in 2016. I don't think there's been a single time he's ever been in competition for something, where he didn't get it, where he has accepted [it]. I think that that's to be expected, but I don't think people are gonna buy it."

I agree with absolutely every word (except that last part about people not buying it.) This is a point I have been making to any one who will listen for a very long time now: Paint me a picture of how the Republican race ends without Donald Trump as the nominee. I have never been able to see it.

Remember back to 2016 (as DeSantis did!). The Iowa caucus results looked like this:

Ted Cruz 51,666 (27.6%)

Donald Trump 45,427 (24.3%)

Marco Rubio 43,165 (23.1%)

Trump was actually closer to finishing third than he was to winning. But, on the day after the caucuses, Trump took to Twitter and said this:

Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he illegally stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong any [sic] why he got more votes than anticipated. Bad!

And this:

Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified

That, um, didn’t happen. But what Trump’s insistence that the election had been stolen from him did do was significantly blunt any momentum Cruz might have had from the Iowa win. He finished a distant third in New Hampshire (Trump won) and was never heard from in the race again.

(Sidebar: It’s worth noting that in the fall of 2016, Trump cried foul even in an election he won. After being elected president, he argued that “in addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally.” He never provided any proof of that claim.)

Fast forward to today. Trump’s polling leads in Iowa and New Hampshire are FAR larger than they were in 2016. Him losing either state would be a MAJOR upset. (Yes, I know there is a New Hampshire poll showing Haley moving up — but she is still 15 points behind Trump!)

And you can imagine how he would react if he lost either state. Rigged! Election Fraud! Conspiracy!

Now, back to DeSantis’ last point that people won’t buy Trump claiming the election was stolen from him.

I see zero evidence over the past seven years that that would be the case. In fact, all of the evidence suggests the opposite. People did buy it! They do buy it!

In an August CNN poll, seven in 10 (69%) of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said Joe Biden’s 2020 win was not legitimate. Among those who voted for Trump in 2020, three in four said Biden’s win was illegitimate. Three in four!

And let’s remember here that there is NO evidence — NONE — that the 2020 election was stolen. It has been fact checked and litigated dozens of times.

The reality — funny word given what we are talking about — is that Trump is the Pied Piper for lots of these people. They will follow him wherever he leads them. That would very much include claims that the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary were stolen from him if he doesn’t win.

Which gets me back to the question I asked at the top: What would it look like for Donald Trump to lose the Republican nomination?

I literally cannot imagine it. Not because it’s impossible. I suppose he could lose Iowa or New Hampshire (the latter is much more likely than the former) and that could lead to a surge of momentum for Haley that pushed her through South Carolina and Super Tuesday. (Again, this scenario is VERY unlikely but, I suppose possible.)

But let’s assume that happened. Would Trump, facing an insurmountable delegate deficit, acknowledge that reality and ow out?

HELL NO he wouldn’t. There’s no chance of that. He would insist nefarious forces had stolen the election from him. He would keep running — probably all the way to the convention. And if he didn’t get the nomination there, he’d try to run a third party bid (if it was possible due to “sore loser” laws).

So, again: How does Trump actually, well, lose? He doesn’t.