Why do we even still have the electoral college? As always Chris, your analysis helps, but I feel like it is political Yahtzee. I can only pray 🙏 that Kamala’s rise continues in those key states.
Sam, I live in Wisconsin and it matters HUGELY that I vote. Heck, we live in Madison where people vote in almost unbelievable numbers...and give massive majorities to Democratic candidates. I was at a fund raiser for Senator Tammy Baldwin yesterday and the energy and excitement (even among us old folks) is remarkable. It's an interesting and exciting election year and not a fun time to be a GOP operative in the Upper Midwest.
Wayne, are you aware of Bill Penzey and his spice company in Kenosha. I’ve been a long time user of his products, but he is very vocal and puts his $$ where his mouth through promotions, great deals for his customers and DEM funding. I heard Tammy Baldwin the other day. She has it together! On to victory, I pray!
I agree, Lucy. I think it's time to take a deep breath and let the Electoral College go. I know it would be a fierce fight, but I think it's time for the change.
I don't think that "fierce fight" quite describes the problem. You'd need to amend the constitution. 2/3 & 3/4. I'd go with "impossible for the foreseeable future."
You have to pick your battles, and battling the EC is futile. Smaller states would never agree to forsake their influence. I hate that we’re stuck with this system but you’d need 2/3 vote in both houses and ratification by 3/4 of states . As devil’s advocate , moreover, I suggest that , absent the EC, no POTUS candidate would bother campaigning or worrying about many smaller states. They’d look to run up the totals in bigger states and would govern with the interests of the bigger states at the forefront.
Mark Robinson, the sicko GOP candidate for governor in NC., may be the key figure in deciding the presidential election in Kamalas favor. If so, it will be fitting. A disgusting, gross MAGA figure brings out the anti-MAGA vote and wins the day for KH..and America! Lets hope!
I live in NC. One thing that I think ought to be considered when thinking about NC is that there's a wingnut Republican running for governor, Mark Robinson. Roy Cooper, our current governor and a Democrat, has been a pretty popular and done a very good job. He worked with a veto-proof Republican legislature to pass Medicaid expansion and was very good during covid. However, he's run up against term limits, so his Democratic AG, Josh Stein, is running for governor.
My point is that Stein is way out ahead of Mark Robinson, and succeeding a popular governor. Maybe there will be an upwards push for Harris on the ballot, turning NC blue on the map.
And that's after his numerous GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS. He's not selfish at all. He placed the interest of the country over and above his personal ambitions. Trump can never do that. President Biden will be remembered as one of the greatest and selfless Presidents
Lolz! Dude says he’s going to run unless “the Lord Himself” tells him to drop out and then drops out. No one has heard from him since. I’m sure he totally dropped out for the good of the nation despite his incessant speech about how he was the only one who could beat Trump. Democrats are hilarious.
I am sad the way it played out for Biden, however, this huge news and happy that he stepped aside. I am one that didn’t think he should have run but was resigned to the fact he did and there we were. We can’t get complacent. Vote 💙
It's the seventh game of the World Series. Half the reason your team even made it this far was because of you. The other half was a bunch of random things that happened to break the right way. It's not your greatest night of the season, but you know you have it in you to finish the job. Then you see it. Out of the corner of your eye you see the Manager leaving the dugout. Then you feel the tap on your shoulder. "Kid, you're a champ. We wouldn't be here right now if you hadn't given your all to the team this season. But right now I need you to take one for the team. Hit the showers." You turn to walk away and the Manager says one more thing. "Hey kid, thanks."
What happened to Joe Biden is a combination of the above, and the sad fact that it has fallen upon you to take grand-dads car keys away.
On a purely human level the whole thing sucks. I don't doubt that he sincerely wants Harris to win, as she's the best (and only) option to continuing his mandate. And he knows that the need for him to step aside was a legitimate one. While he knows he had the strength, talent, and ability to finish the game, the hurt of being pulled is real. Just as the pain is real for the long-time friends and colleagues who had to tell him that he needed to take one for the team.
History will be very kind to Joe Biden. I hope time also helps to heal the still-fresh wounds on both sides. Politics may be a cutthroat sport, but the injuries can still hurt.
Chris, can you do a post about how the changes in the presidential polls impact other statewide candidates? For instance, in NC, where I live, I’m guessing Biden as the nominee was bringing down polling for AG, Lt. Gov, and Gov, as well as state house and senate seats. Joe has that changed, if at all, in the last month?
Great analysis Chris! Its nice to see the continued map moving. Especially away from Trump. Still roughly 3 months left.....in this year anything can (has) happened! I'm even more hopeful now with recent changes. 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Oh man, Chris, I grew up in the Detroit, MI area (Macomb County) and have now been in NC for 17 years. Nobody believed me when Biden stepped aside and I said that Harris would win NC. Only told my wife, but that counts, plus I'm independent. This Robinson guy running for governor is gonna tank Republicans here, taking Trump with him. I think these polls are accurate and only going one way.
Now Michigan, the big issue that settled down nationally but plays big there still is the fallout from the Oxford High shooting. I think so many guys like me from there have a little (1980s) Ted Nugent in them. But there is widespread respect for gun rights, and I don't mean NRA-level. That decision to charge the parents I think will have electoral consequences.
To note: it has nothing to do with the verdicts there, but the decision itself to charge the parents given the laws at the time. That is murky, and it matters where one gets their news about it. That's a big issue in MI.
Folks, the Georgia board of elections has been taken over by election-denier Republicans. Due to the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, if the states’ electors can’t agree by Dec. 12, the House of Representatives decides where their votes go - which can determine the next president. This is how Trump could “win” even if he loses the electoral college.
A group called Fair Fight is working against the extremists' attempts to illegally cancel voters' registrations. The extremists are submitting records stating that some registered voters are felons, or are deceased – all lies. Check out https://www.fairfight.com/ They help registered voters who were illegally purged get their voting access restored. We can volunteer at Fair Fight, donate money, whatever we can do.
Nebraska and Maine award electors by Congressional district so the state as a whole could go for one candidate, but the other could still pick up an elector.
Chris I don't want to be THAT GUY, but I think there's a data error in your 2020 results on North Carolina. It was even closer than that (per North Carolina State Board of Elections website: 2,758,775 for Trump vs 2,684,292 for Biden...It was only 74,000 votes!)
Why do we even still have the electoral college? As always Chris, your analysis helps, but I feel like it is political Yahtzee. I can only pray 🙏 that Kamala’s rise continues in those key states.
Agreed. I live in NY and it doesn't matter if I vote. That shouldn't be the goal here.
Sam, I live in Wisconsin and it matters HUGELY that I vote. Heck, we live in Madison where people vote in almost unbelievable numbers...and give massive majorities to Democratic candidates. I was at a fund raiser for Senator Tammy Baldwin yesterday and the energy and excitement (even among us old folks) is remarkable. It's an interesting and exciting election year and not a fun time to be a GOP operative in the Upper Midwest.
Wayne, are you aware of Bill Penzey and his spice company in Kenosha. I’ve been a long time user of his products, but he is very vocal and puts his $$ where his mouth through promotions, great deals for his customers and DEM funding. I heard Tammy Baldwin the other day. She has it together! On to victory, I pray!
I'm jealous! I'm actually visiting Hudson, Wisconsin next week.
I was in Detroit in May and my heart sank when I saw MAGA stuff on anyone, because, your vote actually counts dude.
I agree, Lucy. I think it's time to take a deep breath and let the Electoral College go. I know it would be a fierce fight, but I think it's time for the change.
I don't think that "fierce fight" quite describes the problem. You'd need to amend the constitution. 2/3 & 3/4. I'd go with "impossible for the foreseeable future."
I realize it is a huge battle..but gentle pressure relentlessly applied has to start somewhere…with us!
You have to pick your battles, and battling the EC is futile. Smaller states would never agree to forsake their influence. I hate that we’re stuck with this system but you’d need 2/3 vote in both houses and ratification by 3/4 of states . As devil’s advocate , moreover, I suggest that , absent the EC, no POTUS candidate would bother campaigning or worrying about many smaller states. They’d look to run up the totals in bigger states and would govern with the interests of the bigger states at the forefront.
Mark Robinson, the sicko GOP candidate for governor in NC., may be the key figure in deciding the presidential election in Kamalas favor. If so, it will be fitting. A disgusting, gross MAGA figure brings out the anti-MAGA vote and wins the day for KH..and America! Lets hope!
I live in NC. One thing that I think ought to be considered when thinking about NC is that there's a wingnut Republican running for governor, Mark Robinson. Roy Cooper, our current governor and a Democrat, has been a pretty popular and done a very good job. He worked with a veto-proof Republican legislature to pass Medicaid expansion and was very good during covid. However, he's run up against term limits, so his Democratic AG, Josh Stein, is running for governor.
My point is that Stein is way out ahead of Mark Robinson, and succeeding a popular governor. Maybe there will be an upwards push for Harris on the ballot, turning NC blue on the map.
I told y'all NC was in play!
I lived in Western North Carolina and hated every second of it, but the state can redeem itself this year.
If the blue wave continues next month you'll be writing this article about Florida.
Joe Biden did the United Staes a tremendous service when he stepped aside for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
And that's after his numerous GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS. He's not selfish at all. He placed the interest of the country over and above his personal ambitions. Trump can never do that. President Biden will be remembered as one of the greatest and selfless Presidents
😂😂😂Hilarious. He was forced out by the Democratic elites and absolutely still believes he should be the nominee.
Close personal friend/confidant of Joe’s, eh?
Lolz! Dude says he’s going to run unless “the Lord Himself” tells him to drop out and then drops out. No one has heard from him since. I’m sure he totally dropped out for the good of the nation despite his incessant speech about how he was the only one who could beat Trump. Democrats are hilarious.
He'll be speaking at the convention tonight.
I am sad the way it played out for Biden, however, this huge news and happy that he stepped aside. I am one that didn’t think he should have run but was resigned to the fact he did and there we were. We can’t get complacent. Vote 💙
It's the seventh game of the World Series. Half the reason your team even made it this far was because of you. The other half was a bunch of random things that happened to break the right way. It's not your greatest night of the season, but you know you have it in you to finish the job. Then you see it. Out of the corner of your eye you see the Manager leaving the dugout. Then you feel the tap on your shoulder. "Kid, you're a champ. We wouldn't be here right now if you hadn't given your all to the team this season. But right now I need you to take one for the team. Hit the showers." You turn to walk away and the Manager says one more thing. "Hey kid, thanks."
What happened to Joe Biden is a combination of the above, and the sad fact that it has fallen upon you to take grand-dads car keys away.
On a purely human level the whole thing sucks. I don't doubt that he sincerely wants Harris to win, as she's the best (and only) option to continuing his mandate. And he knows that the need for him to step aside was a legitimate one. While he knows he had the strength, talent, and ability to finish the game, the hurt of being pulled is real. Just as the pain is real for the long-time friends and colleagues who had to tell him that he needed to take one for the team.
History will be very kind to Joe Biden. I hope time also helps to heal the still-fresh wounds on both sides. Politics may be a cutthroat sport, but the injuries can still hurt.
Very well said.
Frankly, I feel if Harris wins NC, she's got the election in the bag. I don't see how she can win NC and not win the other 6 swing states.
Your lips to God’s ears, Chris….
Chris, can you do a post about how the changes in the presidential polls impact other statewide candidates? For instance, in NC, where I live, I’m guessing Biden as the nominee was bringing down polling for AG, Lt. Gov, and Gov, as well as state house and senate seats. Joe has that changed, if at all, in the last month?
I would love to read something like this.
Great analysis Chris! Its nice to see the continued map moving. Especially away from Trump. Still roughly 3 months left.....in this year anything can (has) happened! I'm even more hopeful now with recent changes. 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Oh man, Chris, I grew up in the Detroit, MI area (Macomb County) and have now been in NC for 17 years. Nobody believed me when Biden stepped aside and I said that Harris would win NC. Only told my wife, but that counts, plus I'm independent. This Robinson guy running for governor is gonna tank Republicans here, taking Trump with him. I think these polls are accurate and only going one way.
Now Michigan, the big issue that settled down nationally but plays big there still is the fallout from the Oxford High shooting. I think so many guys like me from there have a little (1980s) Ted Nugent in them. But there is widespread respect for gun rights, and I don't mean NRA-level. That decision to charge the parents I think will have electoral consequences.
To note: it has nothing to do with the verdicts there, but the decision itself to charge the parents given the laws at the time. That is murky, and it matters where one gets their news about it. That's a big issue in MI.
Folks, the Georgia board of elections has been taken over by election-denier Republicans. Due to the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, if the states’ electors can’t agree by Dec. 12, the House of Representatives decides where their votes go - which can determine the next president. This is how Trump could “win” even if he loses the electoral college.
See these articles - Rachel Maddow explains it - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/19/opinion/trump-election-vote-certification.html - Also - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/19/opinion/trump-election-vote-certification.html
A group called Fair Fight is working against the extremists' attempts to illegally cancel voters' registrations. The extremists are submitting records stating that some registered voters are felons, or are deceased – all lies. Check out https://www.fairfight.com/ They help registered voters who were illegally purged get their voting access restored. We can volunteer at Fair Fight, donate money, whatever we can do.
Let's get moving, folks!
What’s the deal with Nebraska with the yellow lines through it? Florida being pink vs red is interesting.
Nebraska and Maine award electors by Congressional district so the state as a whole could go for one candidate, but the other could still pick up an elector.
Chris I don't want to be THAT GUY, but I think there's a data error in your 2020 results on North Carolina. It was even closer than that (per North Carolina State Board of Elections website: 2,758,775 for Trump vs 2,684,292 for Biden...It was only 74,000 votes!)