How Nikki Haley can *still* impact the presidential race

Winning isn't everything.

(Nikki Haley)

Nikki Haley is not going to be the Republican nominee for president. (Breaking news!

But, that doesn’t mean she can’t have an impact on the race.

Here’s how: She can decide whether or not to elevate Donald Trump’s age and mental competence — not to mention his ongoing election denialism — for the next (and almost certainly last) month of the campaign.

Haley’s showing in New Hampshire was just good enough to allow her to probably allow her to keep the lights on between now and the South Carolina primary on February 24. But not after that.

(Sidebar: I have said and still believe that Haley should drop out before she gets embarrassed in her home state.)

Which presents her with an opportunity: What does she do with that month? How does she campaign? What does she say about Trump?

If the last few days of the New Hampshire primaries are any indication, the answers to those questions could be very interesting.

“The concern I have is — I’m not saying anything derogatory — but when you’re dealing with the pressures of the presidency, we can’t have someone else that we question whether they’re mentally fit to do this,” Haley said. “We can’t.”

“I mean, look, we’ve seen him get confused,” she said in another interview. “He was confused about me having something to do with keeping security away from the Capitol. Clearly, he was talking about someone else.”

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Haley’s main surrogate in the state, went even further.

“That is a great example of, this is not Donald Trump, the disruptor of 2016,” said Sununu. “This guy has lost his fastball. You know, that’s a great example of it. We always want to go forward in America, right? We always want that next generation.”

(Worth noting: Sununu said he would support Trump for president as the nominee.)

This is, I think, worth stopping and contemplating.

We know — or at least I think I know — that Biden’s age and competence is going to be a major issue in the general election. This is for two main reasons:

1. Physically, Biden is clearly slowed from where he was even four years ago. It is evident from anyone watching him.

2. Trump and his campaign have devoted considerable time and resources to suggesting that Biden is failing (or struggling) mentally. “The man can’t put two sentences together,” Trump said of Biden in his victory speech in New Hampshire Tuesday night. “He can’t find the stairs off a stage.”

You don’t have to like this fact. (I know from the comments section that many of you do not! Or even agree that this is a fact!) But I absolutely believe it to be true — based on polling and conversations with party strategists.

If you accept that fact, the critical thing (or one of the critical things) that Biden needs to do between now and November is to find a way to blunt that fact. To lessen it. To muddy the waters.

One way Biden can do this is to demonstrate competence and consistency on the campaign trail. And he needs to do that. (I am in the camp that Biden needs to get himself out there as much as possible. Yes, it is a risk, of course. But a risk worth taking.)

Another way to do it is to make Trump’s age — he’s 77! — and his own mental fitness a much bigger issue in the minds of voters. (Polling, as of right now, suggests that voters are less concerned about Trump’s age than Biden’s.)

The Biden campaign is already doing this — and doing it more and more of late.

Which is smart, I think.

But, if Haley (and, I suppose, Sununu too) keep up the “is Trump mentally fit?” argument, it can have a dual impact: 1) Continue to raise doubts among some segment of Republicans (and independents) about Trump. Or as Jonathan V. Last put it today: “She could continue the work done by Chris Christie and build out the permission structure not only for some Republican voters to abandon Trump, but for other Republican officials to speak out against him for the general election, too.” 2) Provide campaign ad fodder for Biden in the fall campaign.

That could actually matter. Maybe at the margins but the margins seem to me to be where the election is going to be decided.

Will Haley actually do it? That’s a VERY good question — and a hard one to answer. Haley, with the exception of the last few days, has generally gone very easy on Trump.

I’d always assumed that was because she wanted to stay in the running to be his vice president. But, Trump has come out — of late — and made clear that he isn’t going to pick Haley.

“She is not presidential timber,” Trump said in the run-up to the New Hampshire primary. “Now, when I say that, that probably means that she’s not going to be chosen as the vice president.”

And Haley, for her part, has insisted she isn’t interested in the job. “I don’t want to be anybody’s vice president,” she said in New Hampshire. “That is off the table.”

Promises in politics are, of course, not terribly valuable. And often broken.

But, it DOES seem like people like Elise Stefanik, J.D. Vance and Tim Scott (among others) have passed Haley in the veepstakes. (I am going to unveil my first VP rankings for Trump on Friday!)

Which may be real! And may free Haley up to, well, tell the truth about Trump between now and February 24.

Will she? Stay tuned.