I can dismiss the error but I recommend giving more credit to the campaign for their choice. They have more data than you do. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.
meh, minor hiccup in the grand scheme of things. I love Josh Shapiro, more each day, but seriously doubt he would play well as second fiddle, and the Harris team picked up on it. Well, he absolutely telegraphed it to them in big sharpie words. Your post this morning about JOY says it all. I think she made the right choice, and I can't see their joy and enthusiasm not getting to the folks out there. MAGA folks are just gloom and doom. Aren't they getting tired of predicting the world is going to end? Why isn't the entire media talking about trumps message from last night about Biden reclaiming his candidacy? That was the words of a mad man.
Watching Shapiro at the rally last night, I got the sense that he would never be satisfied as second fiddle. Harris has enough on her hands without having to deal with someone else's big ego.
Oh, Chris, the country right now is full of way too many people who think they are perfect. I absolutely couldn't follow or admire you if you were one of those people. Most of us just stumble by trying to do our best and not hurt people on the way. We are the community of the imperfect and I'm so glad you are one of us.
I was thinking about your wrong prediction about Shapiro on my morning run, and I realized to me, you are on politics what Roger Ebert used to be on the movies. Not someone who I always agree with or who is always right, but someone who is always engaging and challenging.
You got the electoral calculations exactly right -- and I'm sure Team Harris did too -- then she slept on it and overrode them based on strong vibes. Both calculations and vibes have their place and I salute Harris for thinking beyond Nov. 5 to what she perceives as the more effective and successful working relationship.
Now just hoping that override doesn't cost her (and us). She's left her right flank dangerously exposed and, as you noted, the paths to 270 without PA are few and narrow. If the force is with her, she'll win PA anyway and Harris/Walz will succeed in defining themselves as something other than the sick caricatures being thrown out there by Team MAGA. When a presidential candidate refers to his (female, no less) opponent as a "bum" (among other slurs), it should be Game Over right there.
thank you for mentioning this, polls and margins matter but I'm also a "narrative guy" and with a VEEP pick it's about moving the presidential candidate's narrative forward, Walz does that, he's "progressive" but visually he appears "moderate", you know, midwestern, that's all good for Harris, plus he's good at verbal jujitsu. Shapiro was "moderate" but could have easily been characterized as coastal elite. so the Walz optics move the Harris narrative forward in a positive way. Witness Trump who did a terrible job of vetting James Donald Vance and reaped a negative narrative, an albatross he'll have to drag around from now until election day.
I totally understand. FWIW, I think any reasonable reader* would understand what you tweeted to be a prediction, not an assertion based on inside sources or something like that.
*Most of the comments section on Twitter is not comprised of reasonable readers.
Always remember the adage, “it ain’t over ‘til the fat lady sings” when deciding to post a prognostication. Discretion is often the wiser choice.
I am, in fact, glad Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz over Shapiro after watching yesterday’s rally. Shapiro is an incredible orator with charisma, that is undoubtedly true. He would have overshadowed the vice-president on the campaign trail. Walz and Harris look more like a team. That’s my take on the optics.
Thanks for sticking by me — an admittedly imperfect guy.
That's why many of us are here; you're one of us (one of us, one of us). ;--)
Chris, you are a beautiful person. I love your political analysis, but more than that, I love your humanity, authenticity, and accountability.
I can dismiss the error but I recommend giving more credit to the campaign for their choice. They have more data than you do. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.
i sure hope you are right.
meh, minor hiccup in the grand scheme of things. I love Josh Shapiro, more each day, but seriously doubt he would play well as second fiddle, and the Harris team picked up on it. Well, he absolutely telegraphed it to them in big sharpie words. Your post this morning about JOY says it all. I think she made the right choice, and I can't see their joy and enthusiasm not getting to the folks out there. MAGA folks are just gloom and doom. Aren't they getting tired of predicting the world is going to end? Why isn't the entire media talking about trumps message from last night about Biden reclaiming his candidacy? That was the words of a mad man.
Watching Shapiro at the rally last night, I got the sense that he would never be satisfied as second fiddle. Harris has enough on her hands without having to deal with someone else's big ego.
Admitting you were wrong is hard. And you did it. That's all.
Oh, Chris, the country right now is full of way too many people who think they are perfect. I absolutely couldn't follow or admire you if you were one of those people. Most of us just stumble by trying to do our best and not hurt people on the way. We are the community of the imperfect and I'm so glad you are one of us.
Truly, no biggie from where I sit.
Just keep on being you!
That’s why I subscribe. 👍🏻
Love your work, honesty, and perspective Chris! I'm a proud paid subscriber/supporter.
I was thinking about your wrong prediction about Shapiro on my morning run, and I realized to me, you are on politics what Roger Ebert used to be on the movies. Not someone who I always agree with or who is always right, but someone who is always engaging and challenging.
Don't worry about it; social media is awful.
Chris, I think you're awesome, but for your own sake, please stay off Twitter or at least take a break from it.
I don't see how being told you suck everytime you tweet is good for your mental health.
(You don't suck, obv)
You got the electoral calculations exactly right -- and I'm sure Team Harris did too -- then she slept on it and overrode them based on strong vibes. Both calculations and vibes have their place and I salute Harris for thinking beyond Nov. 5 to what she perceives as the more effective and successful working relationship.
Now just hoping that override doesn't cost her (and us). She's left her right flank dangerously exposed and, as you noted, the paths to 270 without PA are few and narrow. If the force is with her, she'll win PA anyway and Harris/Walz will succeed in defining themselves as something other than the sick caricatures being thrown out there by Team MAGA. When a presidential candidate refers to his (female, no less) opponent as a "bum" (among other slurs), it should be Game Over right there.
Don't sweat it, Chris. I'm still waiting for my "guaranteed" win by the Oakland A's over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1988 World Series!
"I did something stupid" and "Twitter" often appear in the same sentence.
thank you for mentioning this, polls and margins matter but I'm also a "narrative guy" and with a VEEP pick it's about moving the presidential candidate's narrative forward, Walz does that, he's "progressive" but visually he appears "moderate", you know, midwestern, that's all good for Harris, plus he's good at verbal jujitsu. Shapiro was "moderate" but could have easily been characterized as coastal elite. so the Walz optics move the Harris narrative forward in a positive way. Witness Trump who did a terrible job of vetting James Donald Vance and reaped a negative narrative, an albatross he'll have to drag around from now until election day.
I totally understand. FWIW, I think any reasonable reader* would understand what you tweeted to be a prediction, not an assertion based on inside sources or something like that.
*Most of the comments section on Twitter is not comprised of reasonable readers.
Always remember the adage, “it ain’t over ‘til the fat lady sings” when deciding to post a prognostication. Discretion is often the wiser choice.
I am, in fact, glad Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz over Shapiro after watching yesterday’s rally. Shapiro is an incredible orator with charisma, that is undoubtedly true. He would have overshadowed the vice-president on the campaign trail. Walz and Harris look more like a team. That’s my take on the optics.
I think Harris and Walz are the perfect antithesis to
Convicted Felon don Old and
JDvicious.