If not Ron DeSantis, then who?

The race for 2nd.

(Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis)

There’s stat in the most recent Fox News poll that tells the story of the 2024 Republican presidential race to date.

It’s this: In February, Donald Trump led Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 15 points nationally. Today Trump’s lead is 34 points.

That’s far from the only sign of slippage for DeSantis. In New Hampshire, South Carolina and in other national polls, he’s clearly losing support rather than gaining it.

Which led me to pose the following question on Twitter Thursday night: “If Ron DeSantis isn't going to be the main challenger to Trump, who is?”

The responses — 80 of them — were varied, and interesting. Let’s break them down.

• Chris Christie: The former New Jersey governor was the most mentioned alternative candidate to DeSantis. Which, I get. Christie, as I have written, is having a bit of a moment of late — especially in New Hampshire. And, he’s really the only major candidate who has shown a willingness to directly confront Trump day in and day out. But, Christie also comes with major baggage; he was in Trump’s camp for much of the past 7 years and was one of his key early endorsers in the 2016 race. Plus, Republican voters don’t really, well, like him; 60%+ in a CNN poll said they would NEVER vote for Christie. I do think Christie’s ceiling is higher than he currently stands in polling but I don’t know how much higher. Can get get to 15% or 20% nationally? And is that good enough to be second place to Trump?

• Tim Scott: The South Carolina Senator has this going for him — not a lot of people dislike him. His favorable scores among Republicans are sky high. And in the Fox News poll, just 16% said they would never vote for him. Scott has one more thing going for him: A lot of Republicans still don’t really know much about him, which gives him room to grow and a relatively high ceiling. Scott’s path to being the Trump alternative looks straightforward, if not easy: Win Iowa, survive New Hampshire and then show well in his home state of South Carolina. If that comes to pass, Scott could well be positioned to have a lasting impact on the race. My only question with Scott: He has built his brand on relentless positivity. Can he go on the attack — effectively — against Trump if it becomes a two person race?

• Vivek Ramaswamy: I tend to think that the national media and political class are underestimating Ramaswamy at this point. His appeal is obvious: He’s young, he’s a total outsider to the political process and he is running, effectively I think, in favor of Trumpism without Trump. “He is outworking everyone and he is talking about solutions,” said longtime GOP operative Michael Biundo. “His platform is also in line with an America First Agenda that is crucial to GOP voters.” National polls seems to be picking up that momentum; he was at 5% in the Fox News poll — good for 3rd place. The question for Ramaswamy is what happens if/when he actually starts moving into double digits in polling. The scrutiny of his campaign from the national media — which has been nonexistent to date — will increase mightily. And, as we saw when various candidate bubbled up to be the Trump alternative in 2016, that scrutiny doomed those candidates. Can Ramaswamy, who has never run for any office prior to the presidency, actually withstand such a deep dive? I am skeptical.

• Asa Hutchinson: I get why some people named the former Arkansas governor — he, like Christie, is one of the few Republican candidates articulating the anti-Trump (or at least post-Trump) message that some within the party want to hear. That said, I don’t see it happening for Hutchinson. He is going to struggle to raise the sort of money he would need to emerge as a real alternative to Trump and there are too many better known candidates (Christie being the major one) ahead of him already in polling.

• Donald Trump: This idea, from my friend Damon Linker (subscribe to his Substack!) is perhaps the most intriguing one I heard. The idea being that there is no one in the current Republican field other than Trump who can stop Trump. I see the logic here: Trump has long been his own worst enemy — saying and doing all sorts of things that took him off message or created unnecessary controversy. But, I don’t think even Donald Trump can derail Donald Trump. Consider that he has already survived January 6 and not one but two indictments — and has seen his lead grow in polls — and it’s hard for me to imagine what might be coming down the pike that would somehow cause a radical rethinking of Trump’s support within the Republican base. His assertion that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose support seems as true to me today as it did when he initially said it.