If you thought this is the moment the Trump fever breaks, think again
Republicans are *still* on board
I’ve come to think of the Republican party’s relationship with Donald Trump like waiting in a long line for a ride at Disney World.
When you first get on line, you can easily walk away. You’ve invested very little time in the wait and you can just go see some other part of the park if you so choose.
But, the longer you wait in the line, the more invested you are in the waiting itself. You’ve put time into waiting so now you lose something tangible if you walk away. You are incentivized to stay in line because, well, you’ve already been in line for a while.
By the time you get anywhere near the front of the line, leaving the line seems insane. You’ve spent real time in the line and now you want (need?) to see it through. You are locked in to going on the ride — no matter what.
The time for Republicans to have gotten off the line for the Donald Trump ride with little investment (and not much lost) was in 2016. Or maybe even after 2020. Or maybe maybe even after January 6, 2021.
But, now? Well, it’s too late. They have invested too much in the Trump line — and now they are going to go on the ride come hell or high water.
That phenomenon was on full display in the wake of Thursday night’s news that Trump was being indicted for his role in the retention of classified documents after leaving the White House.
The reaction among Republicans — including many who are actively challenging Trump for the nomination — was both swift and supportive.
“The weaponization of federal law enforcement represents a mortal threat to a free society,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“The one thing that makes America the city on the hill is confidence in our justice system, and today what we see is a justice system where the scales are weighted,” said South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
“This is an affront to every citizen: we cannot devolve into a banana republic where the party in power uses police force to arrest its political opponents,” said entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy called it a “dark day” for the U.S.. New York Rep. Elise Stefanik called it “the epitome of the illegal and unprecedented weaponization of the federal government” against Trump.
And on and on it went.
With very few exceptions — former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson being one — Republicans quickly lined up behind Trump.
They did so before ANY of the charges against him had been made public. (The DOJ has not released the charging document so no one really knows for sure what Trump is being charged with.)
And they did so even as CNN reported Friday morning of a transcript of a conversation Trump had in 2021 in which he said he had “secret” military information but he couldn’t show it to people because “as president, I could have declassified, but now I can’t.”
Which certainly seems a lot like a smoking gun!
And yet and yet and yet.
The Republican reaction to the latest Trump news is proof positive that predictions that his hold on the party would (or will) loosen are simply faulty.
No one made those predictions louder or more often than Joe Biden.
“With Donald Trump out of the White House — not a joke— you will see an epiphany occur among many of my Republican friends,” he said on the campaign trail in 2020.
“I may eat these words, but … as Donald Trump’s shadow fades away, you’re going to see an awful lot change,” Biden predicted.
What he — and all the rest of the fever-will-break crowd — failed to understand is that Republicans have already been in the Trump line too long now to simply walk away.
They are invested. Dug in. And convinced, somehow, of the righteousness of the endeavor!
Consider a small thought experiment.
If at the start of 2016, you asked Scott or DeSantis or McCarthy whether they could see themselves supporting a twice-indicted person for president of the United States, they would unequivocally say “no.” Because, of course not. There would have to be someone better available, right?
But, eight years later, that is exactly where we are. And Republicans are in so deep with Trump that they can’t see any other way out. They are in this line and they need to stick it out until the bitter end.
That’s even in spite of the fact that it’s a widely accepted fact that Trump is the weakest general election candidate Republicans could put forward. And that these indictments further damage him among electorally critical independents.
So, no, this second indictment won’t break that fever. I don’t think anything will — except maybe another presidential loss. Maybe.
I love your sunk cost analogy. If elected Republicans don’t find a way to get out of the line they’re going to get massacred by independent voters next year.
I’m not a political professional for sure, but I can’t see it happening any other way. Is it possible that they’re all in line for a ride on the Titanic or Hindenburg?
You nailed it, Christopher. To paraphrase the Grateful Dead from a half century ago, "What a long strange trip this will be."
Per the persistent support of Trump despite of facts about his actions and prevarications are different between (1) ReTrumplican't politicians, and (2) the MAGA-base.
(1) GOP pols are hypocritical "what-aboutists," who never seriously answer direct questions about Trump's behaviors or words with direct answers.
+This is done for two general reasons:
~ not to get on the bad side of the Defendant-In-Chief
~ they're terrified of a vocal-minority of their constituents upsetting their fat-cat employment in DC
(2) The MAGA-base's reason is less directly self-serving, yet facts don’t change their minds because of a few personality traits, including:
+ BELIEF PERSEVERENCE: people’s tendencies to hold on to their beliefs even after they receive new information that contradicts or disaffirms the basis for those beliefs.
+ CONFIRMATION BIAS: people's tendency to accept only that information confirming their views or prejudices while ignoring or rejecting contradicting information.
+ ILLUSION OF EXPLANATORY DEPTH: people's belief that they understand an issue well enough to be able to have an opinion about it. The only time they might become aware of their ignorance is when they are asked to explain about it and they fumble in doing so.
+ AVOIDANCE OF COMPLEXITY: people's ability to deliberate as if something is not true and get an intuitive feeling about being “right” or “wrong” about certain beliefs.
+ CAUSALITY AND THE IGNORANCE GAP: people's discomfort with their “ignorance gap” or not knowing why certain events happen, so we try to find and recognize patterns in our personal environment that creates a comfort zone from causality based on previous experience.