I love your sunk cost analogy. If elected Republicans don’t find a way to get out of the line they’re going to get massacred by independent voters next year.
I’m not a political professional for sure, but I can’t see it happening any other way. Is it possible that they’re all in line for a ride on the Titanic or Hindenburg?
You nailed it, Christopher. To paraphrase the Grateful Dead from a half century ago, "What a long strange trip this will be."
Per the persistent support of Trump despite of facts about his actions and prevarications are different between (1) ReTrumplican't politicians, and (2) the MAGA-base.
(1) GOP pols are hypocritical "what-aboutists," who never seriously answer direct questions about Trump's behaviors or words with direct answers.
+This is done for two general reasons:
~ not to get on the bad side of the Defendant-In-Chief
~ they're terrified of a vocal-minority of their constituents upsetting their fat-cat employment in DC
(2) The MAGA-base's reason is less directly self-serving, yet facts don’t change their minds because of a few personality traits, including:
+ BELIEF PERSEVERENCE: people’s tendencies to hold on to their beliefs even after they receive new information that contradicts or disaffirms the basis for those beliefs.
+ CONFIRMATION BIAS: people's tendency to accept only that information confirming their views or prejudices while ignoring or rejecting contradicting information.
+ ILLUSION OF EXPLANATORY DEPTH: people's belief that they understand an issue well enough to be able to have an opinion about it. The only time they might become aware of their ignorance is when they are asked to explain about it and they fumble in doing so.
+ AVOIDANCE OF COMPLEXITY: people's ability to deliberate as if something is not true and get an intuitive feeling about being “right” or “wrong” about certain beliefs.
+ CAUSALITY AND THE IGNORANCE GAP: people's discomfort with their “ignorance gap” or not knowing why certain events happen, so we try to find and recognize patterns in our personal environment that creates a comfort zone from causality based on previous experience.
Chris, I am afraid you are spot on, love the metaphor. I really have no words for this travesty, the GOP is way off the rails and it will be years before this train has righted itself. Very dark days ahead for this country.
I've been thinking that too. How much better would things be for the GOP if Trump lost in 2016 and they have Hillary Clinton as a pinata for four years.
The country would still be divided, but not as hostile. Trump gave people permission to act like adolescents regardless of age. "I want the world and I want it, now!"
Chris, it appears maybe one of D. Trump's most truthful statements {even acknowledging the terms "Trump" and "truthful" are, or should be, mutually exclusive} was from January, 2016, when he said, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,”. Your analogy is on point - there is an emotional commitment, almost like a drug addiction, supporters do not know how to break, even if they recognize it.
Mike, I keep coming back to that line. It really did show the stubborn loyalty that Trump's base shows to him. And he understood that all those years ago.
It is certainly the sunk cost fallacy in all its glory... but I almost think of it more like fraternity pledging. In the stereotypical example (think Animal House like hazing) by the time pledge week comes along, the pledge is almost willing to do anything, no matter the depravity, because they have built up a mountain of previously depraved experience to get to that point... so what is "one more" (fill in the morally depraved example)...
Note that all these reactions rallying around the attacked leader are before any of the details are known. I suspect that as more and more details of the crime come out and the public hears the evidence behind the indictments the tide will change. Sticking with your analogy, when the people in line for the ride start seeing people getting off the ride nauseous and children crying, they will rethink it.
Lots of people become stuck in this mode of thinking, particularly in the following areas:
Stocks
Relationships
Auto repairs
To improve our lives we should evaluate all of these on a forward looking basis. But most of us actually use past investment (time or money) to determine what we do next.
Chris, you're right, the indictments basically assure Trump's nomination, and dials in the vote for both Trump & Biden short of a major health problem. The reality is the nation is hard split 40-40, with the remaining 20% independent that is theoretically gettable for either side.
In the general election, the question is how will Trump's indictment impact independent voter intentions vs. Biden's age concerns and, more importantly, whether the GOP can foster the perception that Biden weaponized the DOJ against his rival.
There’s a certain amount of sunk cost fallacy going into this, yeah. That said, this is Trump’s last campaign, win or lose. The White House is his “get out of jail free” card -- if he manages to win, he’ll end all the federal investigations against himself and gum up the state ones enough that he likely won’t see a trial until he leaves office again, and we’ll be in a full blown constitutional crisis.
But if he loses, he’ll die in federal prison unless (a) a future Republican president is willing to grant him clemency, or (b) the Florida venue leads to a hung jury, and/or (c) Judge Cannon finds an excuse to dismiss the charges with prejudice. I’m not at all sure that all three of these things are as unlikely as rule of law would seem to indicate they should be.
Brilliant a analogy, Chris, and sadly true too! But quite scary to see so many GOPs not willing to see reality, and appreciate that the legal system works!! Wish the sensible GOPs would be a bit louder.
Thanks also for your honest writing on how your approach journalism, very important piece of writing you did there. 🙏🙏🙏
The Federal Judge assigned to the new indictment is Judge Aileen Cannon, U.S.D.J. (yes, THAT Judge Aileen Cannon).
Cue the dismissal of the indictment for whatever bizarre reason she can concoct in 3........2.........1........... (and no, I don't expect even the conservative Eleventh Circuit DCA to uphold the dismissal, but all hell is going to break loose if/when she does dismiss it).
It gave me a warm, happy feeling inside when I read that the Trumpsters have doubled down and will support the "Orange Stain" of America to the end. The 2024 Presidential Election, with the undoubted help from the Independents, will result in a landslide for the Dems.
I love your sunk cost analogy. If elected Republicans don’t find a way to get out of the line they’re going to get massacred by independent voters next year.
I’m not a political professional for sure, but I can’t see it happening any other way. Is it possible that they’re all in line for a ride on the Titanic or Hindenburg?
You nailed it, Christopher. To paraphrase the Grateful Dead from a half century ago, "What a long strange trip this will be."
Per the persistent support of Trump despite of facts about his actions and prevarications are different between (1) ReTrumplican't politicians, and (2) the MAGA-base.
(1) GOP pols are hypocritical "what-aboutists," who never seriously answer direct questions about Trump's behaviors or words with direct answers.
+This is done for two general reasons:
~ not to get on the bad side of the Defendant-In-Chief
~ they're terrified of a vocal-minority of their constituents upsetting their fat-cat employment in DC
(2) The MAGA-base's reason is less directly self-serving, yet facts don’t change their minds because of a few personality traits, including:
+ BELIEF PERSEVERENCE: people’s tendencies to hold on to their beliefs even after they receive new information that contradicts or disaffirms the basis for those beliefs.
+ CONFIRMATION BIAS: people's tendency to accept only that information confirming their views or prejudices while ignoring or rejecting contradicting information.
+ ILLUSION OF EXPLANATORY DEPTH: people's belief that they understand an issue well enough to be able to have an opinion about it. The only time they might become aware of their ignorance is when they are asked to explain about it and they fumble in doing so.
+ AVOIDANCE OF COMPLEXITY: people's ability to deliberate as if something is not true and get an intuitive feeling about being “right” or “wrong” about certain beliefs.
+ CAUSALITY AND THE IGNORANCE GAP: people's discomfort with their “ignorance gap” or not knowing why certain events happen, so we try to find and recognize patterns in our personal environment that creates a comfort zone from causality based on previous experience.
Chris, I am afraid you are spot on, love the metaphor. I really have no words for this travesty, the GOP is way off the rails and it will be years before this train has righted itself. Very dark days ahead for this country.
I just think they are in so deep with Trump that they can't see a path out -- even if they wanted to get out (and I think some of them do!)
I've been thinking that too. How much better would things be for the GOP if Trump lost in 2016 and they have Hillary Clinton as a pinata for four years.
The country would still be divided, but not as hostile. Trump gave people permission to act like adolescents regardless of age. "I want the world and I want it, now!"
The Disney ride line analogy is spot on.
Thank you!
Chris, it appears maybe one of D. Trump's most truthful statements {even acknowledging the terms "Trump" and "truthful" are, or should be, mutually exclusive} was from January, 2016, when he said, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,”. Your analogy is on point - there is an emotional commitment, almost like a drug addiction, supporters do not know how to break, even if they recognize it.
Mike, I keep coming back to that line. It really did show the stubborn loyalty that Trump's base shows to him. And he understood that all those years ago.
He was also truthful in the hilariously, pitiful video he put out when he twice, TWICE, bragged about receiving more votes than any sitting president.
With that dedication to truth-telling I implore our former leader to take the stand and dispute the charges against him.
It is certainly the sunk cost fallacy in all its glory... but I almost think of it more like fraternity pledging. In the stereotypical example (think Animal House like hazing) by the time pledge week comes along, the pledge is almost willing to do anything, no matter the depravity, because they have built up a mountain of previously depraved experience to get to that point... so what is "one more" (fill in the morally depraved example)...
This is a really smart way to think about it too!
Note that all these reactions rallying around the attacked leader are before any of the details are known. I suspect that as more and more details of the crime come out and the public hears the evidence behind the indictments the tide will change. Sticking with your analogy, when the people in line for the ride start seeing people getting off the ride nauseous and children crying, they will rethink it.
This is known as the sunk cost fallacy.
Lots of people become stuck in this mode of thinking, particularly in the following areas:
Stocks
Relationships
Auto repairs
To improve our lives we should evaluate all of these on a forward looking basis. But most of us actually use past investment (time or money) to determine what we do next.
It leads to much continued misery.
Yes! This! Thanks for putting a name to it. Now I know!
Yes, just that! Thanks for putting a name to it! Now I know!
Chris, you're right, the indictments basically assure Trump's nomination, and dials in the vote for both Trump & Biden short of a major health problem. The reality is the nation is hard split 40-40, with the remaining 20% independent that is theoretically gettable for either side.
In the general election, the question is how will Trump's indictment impact independent voter intentions vs. Biden's age concerns and, more importantly, whether the GOP can foster the perception that Biden weaponized the DOJ against his rival.
At this stage, all bets are off....
Perfect metaphor!!
Thanks!
FWIW, I just wouldn't get on the line to begin with. Long lines suck. As do rides.
BOOOO! What about Space Mountain!?!
Well according to Ric Flair, Space Mountain has the longest line in the park! WOOOOOOOOOOOO
Flair rules.
There’s a certain amount of sunk cost fallacy going into this, yeah. That said, this is Trump’s last campaign, win or lose. The White House is his “get out of jail free” card -- if he manages to win, he’ll end all the federal investigations against himself and gum up the state ones enough that he likely won’t see a trial until he leaves office again, and we’ll be in a full blown constitutional crisis.
But if he loses, he’ll die in federal prison unless (a) a future Republican president is willing to grant him clemency, or (b) the Florida venue leads to a hung jury, and/or (c) Judge Cannon finds an excuse to dismiss the charges with prejudice. I’m not at all sure that all three of these things are as unlikely as rule of law would seem to indicate they should be.
Cowards. Hollow men. It's infuriating.
Brilliant a analogy, Chris, and sadly true too! But quite scary to see so many GOPs not willing to see reality, and appreciate that the legal system works!! Wish the sensible GOPs would be a bit louder.
Thanks also for your honest writing on how your approach journalism, very important piece of writing you did there. 🙏🙏🙏
The Federal Judge assigned to the new indictment is Judge Aileen Cannon, U.S.D.J. (yes, THAT Judge Aileen Cannon).
Cue the dismissal of the indictment for whatever bizarre reason she can concoct in 3........2.........1........... (and no, I don't expect even the conservative Eleventh Circuit DCA to uphold the dismissal, but all hell is going to break loose if/when she does dismiss it).
https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-aileen-cannon-trump-appointee-initially-assigned-oversee/story?id=99956910
It gave me a warm, happy feeling inside when I read that the Trumpsters have doubled down and will support the "Orange Stain" of America to the end. The 2024 Presidential Election, with the undoubted help from the Independents, will result in a landslide for the Dems.