Is Georgia the new Pennsylvania?

It just might be!

If you have been reading this newsletter for the past few months, you know that I have long regarded Pennsylvania as the must-have state of the 2024 race.

While Donald Trump has a few more paths to victory without Pennsylvania than does Kamala Harris, it’s critical for the road to 270 for both sides.

I am going to just keep posting this map because I think it’s so illustrative of why Pennsylvania is so central to Harris’ math:

In that map, Harris can win Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona and STILL lose the election to Trump.

So, yeah.

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But then over the weekend, I came across this tweet about Trump’s ad spending (which I shared with PAID subscribers yesterday!):

Anything jump out at you? Like, the $24 million (!) Trump just dumped into TV ads in Georgia???

I always say that the best way to differentiate between the spin the campaigns are putting out about the map and how they really see it is to look at 2 things:

1. Where is the candidate spending his or her time?

2. Where is the campaign spending real money on TV ads?

Those two factors will tell you where the campaign thinks they can actually win.

So, when a campaign drops almost $25 million in a single state, you should pay attention.

I did a little digging on Georgia. And, judging by the polls, there’s absolutely reason for Trump to worry.

Here’s the last 5 polls in the state — via the New York Times:

And here’s what the 538 polling average looks like in the state:

That’s a big difference from where the race stood when Joe Biden was still running. The Real Clear Politics polling average, at that time, gave Trump a nearly-four point average lead over the incumbent.

Acknowledging that change, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved Georgia from “lean Republican to “toss up” last week. Ditto Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball.”

Now, consider that map above — but with Georgia a toss-up rather than going for Trump:

And, if Georgia was to go for Harris, she could lose Arizona from that map and still win. Or Wisconsin. Or Nevada.

There’s also this possibility — if Harris won Georgia but lost Pennsylvania and Michigan:

269-269. Which would be historic. (Here’s how that tie would be resolved.)

The bigger point here is that a) Georgia is clearly more competitive with Harris as the Democratic nominee than it was with Biden in that role and b) if Democrats can win Georgia, it makes their path to 270 electoral votes much, much easier.

The electoral map has been moving toward Democrats almost since the moment it became clear that Harris was going to be their replacement nominee for Biden. But no move is more important to her chances of winning than Georgia emerging as a true toss up.

While I still think Pennsylvania is the most important state in the 2024 election, Georgia now appears to me to be #2 on that list.