Sam, I'm a Brewers fan. Someone won in Georgia last week but it wasn't Trump and it wasn't the Braves, huh? Nonetheless, I like the Braves' chances lots more than I like Trump's chances. Heck, I like the Braves lots more than I like Trump, even though some of us here in Wisconsin have still not forgotten "The Move."
Not going to happen. Kemp is a rightwinger who got elected through voter suppression. He's a naturally ally of Trump which makes Trump's attacks on him all the more absurd.
He won't. But he could quietly allow the Democrats to cheat in Fulton County without affecting the legislative and House races he really cares about. No Senate race is on the GA ballot this year.
But for Pennsylvania tipping point, what would be the actual odds that Wisconsin and Michigan go Democrat and Pennsylvania doesn't? These aren't actually independent variables, they're correlated. The odds that Harris were to lose Pennsylvania but carried both Michigan and Wisconisn must be very low. Georgia is less correlated with the Rust Belt, so that seems a more reasonable calculation.
Trump has been consistently polling slightly better in PA than MI or WI, so the odds that KH could win MI and WI but lose PA are not that bad.
GA has one of the highest Black populations of any state (in % terms), so it is understandable that it won't be correlated with PA as much, but is more correlated to NC.
In this article, here's the most important sentence that you wrote:
"The electoral map has been moving toward Democrats almost since the moment it became clear that Harris was going to be their replacement nominee for Biden."
It's only been 21 days since Biden stepped aside and offered his endorsement to Harris. That's 21 days...as in 3 weeks. Harris-Walz are doing so well...give them time to complete the task. They are well on their way.
P.S. The Democratic National Convention hasn't even started yet! That will move the needle even more!
Chris - what role is Stacey Abrams playing in Georgia? Does she still have an active role and network helping Georgian’s get registered and to the polls?
I believe I saw that Trump is having a rally this week in Asheville, NC. Combined with the second-highest ad buy, looks like the Trump campaign is concerned about NC as well. And they are putting almost no money into PA, which I do not understand.
Maybe Trump is investing in PA through rallies instead of TV ads right now.
Also, Trump may be targeting PA voters who don't watch much TV. Lots of people don't watch TV anymore. He is clearly targeting TV watchers in GA - which means he is targeting suburbanites.
Trump will be in Wilkes Barre, PA (Luzerne County/Northeast PA) this weekend. Luzerne and neighboring Lackawanna County, (Scranton - Joe Biden's hometown if he hasn't reminded you) could be the two counties which dictate who wins the state, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
As you highlighted a potential tie in the EC, here's a fascinating twist; R's hold the House (and a 26+state majority), D's the Senate. In this instance, we could have a Tump/Harris or Trump/Walz or Tump/Dem to be named VP. Now that would be crazy and historic AND ensure 4 yrs of absolute government insanity.
I live in the Philly media market. Seen Trump's ads. Oddly, they show up on very late night (1 am & later) streaming channels. Ad buy must be super cheap in that time slot. In 2020, Biden's campaign did a major ad buy on HGTV. A fantastic move, as medical center waiting rooms always have HGTV on. And Biden's ads addressed access to medical care - in a tasteful way, no jarring images or blaring sounds that would make somebody complain and get HGTV switched off.
Interesting, and smart on the part of the 2020 ad placement team (particularly given, as you allude to, people waiting in a hospital waiting room, especially those who are not only there but watching the idiot box, are likely substantially more emotionally malleable than
I had _not_ noticed that pattern of HGTV, but I haven't spent a lot of time in hospital waiting rooms in the last few years, and I would generally not be able to have told you back then what _was_ on their TVs. Makes sense in that it's generally a calming/distracting content with relatively low politico-tribal valence (versus news, for example).
After Trump spent 20 minutes trashing Governor Kemp, a guy who Georgians love, during his Atlanta rally the MAGA forces are likely spending on damage control. And the $20+ million is now unavailable for ads in PA. Thanks for that, TFG.
As some one in Georgia I can tell you that the ads are already annoying. Since Saturday that is all I have gotten on YouTube. At least I can skip them. I have not watched regular TV in over 10 years so I can only imagine how awful having to watch several minutes of the ads is. Already not enjoying our new status of swing state.
No doubt that PA is critical to VP Harris’s winning in 2024.
What is striking is the history of the past EIGHT presidential elections the GOP has NEVER gotten over 50% of the vote and won the state only ONCE.
When you discount the two weird elections in 1996 & 1992 when Ross Perot had some real juice, (in other words the past SIX elections) the GOP still has never gotten over 50% of the vote while the Democrats did NOT hit 50% ONLY once in the outlier year, 2016.
The past six elections, the high mark for the GOP was 48.84% (Trump 2020….which he still lost) and 48.18% (2016 where Trump won) squeezing out paltry .72% advantage.
2016 was also the anomaly (since 2000) when a whopping 4.36% of the vote went to “other”. Second largest “other” vote was 2000…2.97% while Gore won 50.6% to 46.43%
The reality is striking to say the least. Dems get 50%+ five of the last six elections…winning every time.
Trump benefitted by facing Hillary Clinton which the GOP spent close to 30 years vilifying and denigrating. She was deeply unpopular.
Kamala Harris is NOT Hillary.
Of course it is too early to say what will happen, there is a lot of time between now and elections day.
But, the history suggests that TRUMP is the distinct underdog in PA, and if Harris win PA she will he very hard to deny the presidency.
Why does your map still have PA in the red? The Bulfinch Group poll just had Harris up by 4% points; the NYTimes/Siena poll had her up by 2%. It's pretty tough , I know, analyzing a moving target. I agree PA is likely a must win
If Georgia is the #2 state on the list and he has to dump $25 million in advertising there, that's a bad sign for Trump.
Probably wasn't a wise idea to once again pick a fight with the governor.
As a Braves fan, at least someone is going to win in Georgia this fall.
Sam, I'm a Brewers fan. Someone won in Georgia last week but it wasn't Trump and it wasn't the Braves, huh? Nonetheless, I like the Braves' chances lots more than I like Trump's chances. Heck, I like the Braves lots more than I like Trump, even though some of us here in Wisconsin have still not forgotten "The Move."
>Sam, I'm a Brewers fan. Someone won in Georgia last week but it wasn't Trump and it wasn't the Braves, huh?
I don't remember asking you, Wayne! :-)
I'm actually wearing my Milwaukee Braves hat today.
Maybe Donald J Trump could spend a little less money in Georgia if he could refrain from attacking popular elected Republicans.
What are the idds Gov. Kemp gets some payback and endorses Harris the way the Republican mayor of Mesa AZ did?
Not going to happen. Kemp is a rightwinger who got elected through voter suppression. He's a naturally ally of Trump which makes Trump's attacks on him all the more absurd.
He won't. But he could quietly allow the Democrats to cheat in Fulton County without affecting the legislative and House races he really cares about. No Senate race is on the GA ballot this year.
*odds
Also interesting how PA was the lowest $$$ on ads 🤔
I noticed that as well. @Chris, any speculation on why PA has the lowest ad spending by Trump?
I think Trump is targeting PA voters who don't watch TV, which means he is targeting them by other means.
That is a good point.
But for Pennsylvania tipping point, what would be the actual odds that Wisconsin and Michigan go Democrat and Pennsylvania doesn't? These aren't actually independent variables, they're correlated. The odds that Harris were to lose Pennsylvania but carried both Michigan and Wisconisn must be very low. Georgia is less correlated with the Rust Belt, so that seems a more reasonable calculation.
Trump has been consistently polling slightly better in PA than MI or WI, so the odds that KH could win MI and WI but lose PA are not that bad.
GA has one of the highest Black populations of any state (in % terms), so it is understandable that it won't be correlated with PA as much, but is more correlated to NC.
So Chris,
In this article, here's the most important sentence that you wrote:
"The electoral map has been moving toward Democrats almost since the moment it became clear that Harris was going to be their replacement nominee for Biden."
It's only been 21 days since Biden stepped aside and offered his endorsement to Harris. That's 21 days...as in 3 weeks. Harris-Walz are doing so well...give them time to complete the task. They are well on their way.
P.S. The Democratic National Convention hasn't even started yet! That will move the needle even more!
Chris - what role is Stacey Abrams playing in Georgia? Does she still have an active role and network helping Georgian’s get registered and to the polls?
I believe I saw that Trump is having a rally this week in Asheville, NC. Combined with the second-highest ad buy, looks like the Trump campaign is concerned about NC as well. And they are putting almost no money into PA, which I do not understand.
And the Harris campaign is spending heavily in PA.
Maybe Trump is investing in PA through rallies instead of TV ads right now.
Also, Trump may be targeting PA voters who don't watch much TV. Lots of people don't watch TV anymore. He is clearly targeting TV watchers in GA - which means he is targeting suburbanites.
Trump will be in Wilkes Barre, PA (Luzerne County/Northeast PA) this weekend. Luzerne and neighboring Lackawanna County, (Scranton - Joe Biden's hometown if he hasn't reminded you) could be the two counties which dictate who wins the state, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
Ah. Thanks for the update, hadn’t seen that
The amount of money that is spent soliciting votes is just gross. 🤮
As you highlighted a potential tie in the EC, here's a fascinating twist; R's hold the House (and a 26+state majority), D's the Senate. In this instance, we could have a Tump/Harris or Trump/Walz or Tump/Dem to be named VP. Now that would be crazy and historic AND ensure 4 yrs of absolute government insanity.
I live in the Philly media market. Seen Trump's ads. Oddly, they show up on very late night (1 am & later) streaming channels. Ad buy must be super cheap in that time slot. In 2020, Biden's campaign did a major ad buy on HGTV. A fantastic move, as medical center waiting rooms always have HGTV on. And Biden's ads addressed access to medical care - in a tasteful way, no jarring images or blaring sounds that would make somebody complain and get HGTV switched off.
Interesting, and smart on the part of the 2020 ad placement team (particularly given, as you allude to, people waiting in a hospital waiting room, especially those who are not only there but watching the idiot box, are likely substantially more emotionally malleable than
I had _not_ noticed that pattern of HGTV, but I haven't spent a lot of time in hospital waiting rooms in the last few years, and I would generally not be able to have told you back then what _was_ on their TVs. Makes sense in that it's generally a calming/distracting content with relatively low politico-tribal valence (versus news, for example).
After Trump spent 20 minutes trashing Governor Kemp, a guy who Georgians love, during his Atlanta rally the MAGA forces are likely spending on damage control. And the $20+ million is now unavailable for ads in PA. Thanks for that, TFG.
,La has momentum.
Zero in this article about voting, but only money and what the extremely flawed “Crystal Ball” says.
As some one in Georgia I can tell you that the ads are already annoying. Since Saturday that is all I have gotten on YouTube. At least I can skip them. I have not watched regular TV in over 10 years so I can only imagine how awful having to watch several minutes of the ads is. Already not enjoying our new status of swing state.
No doubt that PA is critical to VP Harris’s winning in 2024.
What is striking is the history of the past EIGHT presidential elections the GOP has NEVER gotten over 50% of the vote and won the state only ONCE.
When you discount the two weird elections in 1996 & 1992 when Ross Perot had some real juice, (in other words the past SIX elections) the GOP still has never gotten over 50% of the vote while the Democrats did NOT hit 50% ONLY once in the outlier year, 2016.
The past six elections, the high mark for the GOP was 48.84% (Trump 2020….which he still lost) and 48.18% (2016 where Trump won) squeezing out paltry .72% advantage.
2016 was also the anomaly (since 2000) when a whopping 4.36% of the vote went to “other”. Second largest “other” vote was 2000…2.97% while Gore won 50.6% to 46.43%
The reality is striking to say the least. Dems get 50%+ five of the last six elections…winning every time.
Trump benefitted by facing Hillary Clinton which the GOP spent close to 30 years vilifying and denigrating. She was deeply unpopular.
Kamala Harris is NOT Hillary.
Of course it is too early to say what will happen, there is a lot of time between now and elections day.
But, the history suggests that TRUMP is the distinct underdog in PA, and if Harris win PA she will he very hard to deny the presidency.
Why does your map still have PA in the red? The Bulfinch Group poll just had Harris up by 4% points; the NYTimes/Siena poll had her up by 2%. It's pretty tough , I know, analyzing a moving target. I agree PA is likely a must win