Although I realize that logic is often irrelevant when a Trump candidacy is the topic, let's try a bit of logic here, anyway. Let's logically assume that within the next several months there will be a few dozen more felony charges brought against Trump and/or the Trump legal team. Let's logically assume that GOP primary voters have already looked at DeSantis and concluded, let's be honest, DeSantis is NOT likeable at all. Let's also logically assume that the modern-day Republican Party -- build on hatred and racism -- will not turn to an African-American candidate as their big hope for 2024. And let's logically assume that we continue to have an economy with full employment, record unemployment and without the long-predicted, but not occuring, recession. So where does all of this leave the GOP at the beginning of 2024? And why do so many pundits have so much difficulty looking at this logic?
I wish the reporting on TFG's rallies would include the facts that a) he's doing fewer than he used to (gosh, I would love to know all the reasons why) and b) many of the attendees are die hard fans who attend many (if not all) of his events.
His fans (who still only get one vote each) follow him like the Dead Heads followed the Grateful Dead. They make the crowds large, but aren't representative of, say, his popularity in South Carolina.
And I, too, am waiting for his multiple indictments to have an effect. Maybe when he actually has to show up in court . . . ?
Let's face the fact that while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes, and this time it is rhyming with Germany in the summer of 1932.
But this time we'd better vote for the Social Democratic candidate, regardless of how "unexciting" he might seem, because we already know from 1933 that a Nazi victory will never "speed the revolution."
TOTALLY agree with your theory of the case, Chris - very perceptive as usual. Also particularly agree with your observation of Trump’s appeal as being non-ideological. For 8 years I’ve been metaphorically scratching my head asking “WHAT is the appeal of a guy who to my eye is completely unfit and incompetent in about 40 different ways?” But your “tough…willing to smack around…” phrasing really nails it
After 50 years of right wing propaganda, reinforced and multiplied in the past 30 years by Faux Snooze, all the voters from Flyover Loserville want is somebody who hates the same people they hate. Trump's their guy.
1. Republican candidates not named Trump are literally and explicitly running for second place, on the assumption that they can’t really be better than him and it’s better to try inherit his voters than win them over. The entire theory behind this is that eventually he’ll leave the race.
2. He is not leaving the race for any non-actuarial reasons.
If this doesn’t change, then yes, it’s over. Christie is the wrong messenger, and the party is still too supine before the orange god emperor to listen to other Republicans just come out and say, “hey, maybe we SHOULDN’T nominate a guy who’s going to be in criminal trials in four jurisdictions come November 2024, you know?” Everyone’s default logic is “if it makes Trump looks bad, it’s the enemy.” No amount of evidence against him is ever accepted as valid, in part because no other elected Republicans are willing to say it is.
Would seem to support your contention the race may be done unless someone or something can upset the dynamic. Beginning to think Trump only loses the nomination if he is mentally and/or physically incapacitated. And under the same dynamic, winning the presidency is not out of the question - God help us...
If Trump is the anointed one for the Republican primary, how does this change the dynamics of the "anybody but Biden" primary or third party spoiler efforts?
Commentator and former Trump supporter Bill Mitchell claimed on Twitter that the crowds were far fewer than 50,000, using one aerial photo to suggest only 3,000 people were in the vicinity of the podium where the former president spoke.
Quit speculating; it plays into Liar Trump’s ploys.
This has all been how I have felt, Chris. It’s all but certain to be Trump as the nominee and it sickens me. Foolish of me to have hoped and prayed from 2016 - 2020 that he be indicted once he left office. I was delusional in thinking that would end it for him and here we are. He has 2 indictments and it has strengthened him, more indictments and his supporters will go wild with excitement. What a country. We just celebrated the birthday of the greatest country of all and to think that this sick man could not only be the nominee but the president once again. Horrifying to think we may lose our democracy. The sad state of affairs, at the moment, win or lose it won’t be good for this country.
If the field decided to coalesce around one non-crazy candidate, they could pull a "Biden, not Bernie". However, I was shocked when it worked in 2020, and I would be shocked it it happened now.
I believe that part of the Republican base’s motivation is derived from disgust with lawyers, the law, including how it is made, jurisprudence. I believe that they find it confusing and distrust it.
I'm going to go out on a limb: The koch brothers are doing with they can to make sure 45 is not the Republican nominee. Say he loses in 2024- what happens to Republicans then? There will be more indictments to come.
Although I realize that logic is often irrelevant when a Trump candidacy is the topic, let's try a bit of logic here, anyway. Let's logically assume that within the next several months there will be a few dozen more felony charges brought against Trump and/or the Trump legal team. Let's logically assume that GOP primary voters have already looked at DeSantis and concluded, let's be honest, DeSantis is NOT likeable at all. Let's also logically assume that the modern-day Republican Party -- build on hatred and racism -- will not turn to an African-American candidate as their big hope for 2024. And let's logically assume that we continue to have an economy with full employment, record unemployment and without the long-predicted, but not occuring, recession. So where does all of this leave the GOP at the beginning of 2024? And why do so many pundits have so much difficulty looking at this logic?
Wayne,
Excellent points.
We need to remmeber that the two most anti-American court cases are on deck:
1. Voting fraud with a number of Trumpites of his cabal will be in the dock with for attempting to overturn the election in Georgia.
2. The Secessionist-in-Chief's hand in the 1-6 uprising will also include a number of his traitorous dupes.
In both cases I can't believe that one or more of his henchmen will not turn on the least loyal "leader" of his rotten regime.
Right now, the two indictments can be downplayed as unimportant whataboutism.
There will be no "But Biden and Hillary did it too," nonsense to fall back on to excuse the Criminal-In-Chief.
I wish the reporting on TFG's rallies would include the facts that a) he's doing fewer than he used to (gosh, I would love to know all the reasons why) and b) many of the attendees are die hard fans who attend many (if not all) of his events.
His fans (who still only get one vote each) follow him like the Dead Heads followed the Grateful Dead. They make the crowds large, but aren't representative of, say, his popularity in South Carolina.
And I, too, am waiting for his multiple indictments to have an effect. Maybe when he actually has to show up in court . . . ?
Let's face the fact that while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes, and this time it is rhyming with Germany in the summer of 1932.
But this time we'd better vote for the Social Democratic candidate, regardless of how "unexciting" he might seem, because we already know from 1933 that a Nazi victory will never "speed the revolution."
TOTALLY agree with your theory of the case, Chris - very perceptive as usual. Also particularly agree with your observation of Trump’s appeal as being non-ideological. For 8 years I’ve been metaphorically scratching my head asking “WHAT is the appeal of a guy who to my eye is completely unfit and incompetent in about 40 different ways?” But your “tough…willing to smack around…” phrasing really nails it
After 50 years of right wing propaganda, reinforced and multiplied in the past 30 years by Faux Snooze, all the voters from Flyover Loserville want is somebody who hates the same people they hate. Trump's their guy.
“Faux snooze” huh? That’s a new one! HA HA - love it!
It's open source, steal at will.
There are two dynamics in play here:
1. Republican candidates not named Trump are literally and explicitly running for second place, on the assumption that they can’t really be better than him and it’s better to try inherit his voters than win them over. The entire theory behind this is that eventually he’ll leave the race.
2. He is not leaving the race for any non-actuarial reasons.
If this doesn’t change, then yes, it’s over. Christie is the wrong messenger, and the party is still too supine before the orange god emperor to listen to other Republicans just come out and say, “hey, maybe we SHOULDN’T nominate a guy who’s going to be in criminal trials in four jurisdictions come November 2024, you know?” Everyone’s default logic is “if it makes Trump looks bad, it’s the enemy.” No amount of evidence against him is ever accepted as valid, in part because no other elected Republicans are willing to say it is.
Chris - interesting opinion piece by Thomas B. Edsall on June 28 in the NYT - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/opinion/donald-trump-presidency-lies.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Would seem to support your contention the race may be done unless someone or something can upset the dynamic. Beginning to think Trump only loses the nomination if he is mentally and/or physically incapacitated. And under the same dynamic, winning the presidency is not out of the question - God help us...
He's been mentally incapacitated since the day he was born, but it doesn't seem to have stopped him, has it?
If Trump is the anointed one for the Republican primary, how does this change the dynamics of the "anybody but Biden" primary or third party spoiler efforts?
Good question.
Barring Trump's death or incapacitation, yes, it is over. Trump would even win from jail.
Commentator and former Trump supporter Bill Mitchell claimed on Twitter that the crowds were far fewer than 50,000, using one aerial photo to suggest only 3,000 people were in the vicinity of the podium where the former president spoke.
Quit speculating; it plays into Liar Trump’s ploys.
This has all been how I have felt, Chris. It’s all but certain to be Trump as the nominee and it sickens me. Foolish of me to have hoped and prayed from 2016 - 2020 that he be indicted once he left office. I was delusional in thinking that would end it for him and here we are. He has 2 indictments and it has strengthened him, more indictments and his supporters will go wild with excitement. What a country. We just celebrated the birthday of the greatest country of all and to think that this sick man could not only be the nominee but the president once again. Horrifying to think we may lose our democracy. The sad state of affairs, at the moment, win or lose it won’t be good for this country.
Chris,
YES!!!!
Your question was a basketball-sized softball right over the plate for a screaming flyball over the Center Field fence.
Keeping with the seasonal sport metaphor...
The quality of challengers ranges from AAA-ball down to the college Cape Cod League.
If the field decided to coalesce around one non-crazy candidate, they could pull a "Biden, not Bernie". However, I was shocked when it worked in 2020, and I would be shocked it it happened now.
First, they’d need a non-crazy voting base. The Dems have that.
I mean sure they’re all Marxist, communist fascists. But, Dems aren’t crazy.
Such a sad commentary about the GOP voters.
I believe that part of the Republican base’s motivation is derived from disgust with lawyers, the law, including how it is made, jurisprudence. I believe that they find it confusing and distrust it.
People in my circle have been referring to Trump's term as Don T.'s Inferno. Free to open source.
T in O C Ca
2007 you mean, not 2015??
YES! I always screw that up. Fixed now!
I'm going to go out on a limb: The koch brothers are doing with they can to make sure 45 is not the Republican nominee. Say he loses in 2024- what happens to Republicans then? There will be more indictments to come.
Still see “2015” at the end of that paragraph…