If folks are too ashamed of their support for Trump to even share that information with a stranger/pollster, why do they support him in the first place?
I mean, why do I lie to the AT&T guy at Target that I already have AT&T? I feel vulnerable to the survey in the first place and am suspect of any follow-up questions.
Polling someone on their political preference is highly vulnerable. The pollee is not anonymous if it's via phone. Possibly not even anonymous if via IP address. Data leaks happen all the time. They may not be ashamed, they may just be concerned their political preference could be used against them.
Given this and American phone culture (call screening, no time for surveys, etc), I'm honestly shocked that these polls are even close to accurate. I don't know if pollsters are knowingly accounting for these biases or if binary polls tend to be pretty accurate. Still, I want to see hard proof that people are polling as Harris but voting Trump, not some inference from polling and voting data. That's a bold assumption.
boots on the ground in PA: my gut feel is that DJT support is OVER estimated in the polls. Seeing far more Harris support than the previous two elections and far less DJT support. Hardly scientific, but different vibe this time.
This is why the Harris team is not taking anything for granted and going to places like Ripon, WI.
Polls have always been an imperfect approximation - just because they are sometimes accurate does not mean they will always be accurate. Kind of like predicting the weather. Polls give you an idea of what might happen - nothing more. The actual results will be based upon a number of factors which cannot truly be accounted for by the polls.
People should not be so obsessed with the polls. If you like numbers, check out the MODELS. They are more scientifically reliable than these polls. And if you look at all the MODELS , you will rather be Harris now than Trump. If these trends hold Harris will be ou next President come January 2025
Looking at models is absolutely better, and furthermore there is one "best" model. It is the only one that has been constructed by true experts in statistics and back-tested on prior elections. This model is the one published by The Economist, designed by Columbia University stats professor Andrew Gelman: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
glad you shared this early enough in the day for me to have my crisis, negotiate my crisis, manage my crisis and go to bed reasonably calmed down. I keep trying to focus on the trend lines... you could see that Trump was moving up in PA. that is not good, for sure. we now have our Oct surprises, can't wait for Nov 5 to roll around
Chris, I’m not ashamed that I’m supporting Harris, but, like many people, I don’t answer my phone from unknown numbers or reply to texts that may be poll links or may be scam links. How much bias does this lack of reaching some voters create? I know there’s supposed to be factors built in for this, but are they truly able to account for the people the pollsters can’t reach?
So, basically, the race is very close, and nobody knows what's gonna happen until Nov 5th (and probably a few days later). I kinda knew that before reading this.
I think there's an inverse to your question that has to be asked too: have polling outfits overcorrected since 2020 and are now favoring Trump and conservatives too much? I say this because in 2022 and 23, there were indications in all sorts of votes across the country of so called "red waves" that were, at best, red ripples often. So one has to ask, did the polling outfits overcorrect themselves after their misses in 2020?
I resolved a few months ago not to pay attention to the polls. There are so many and no one can get a true read on this or any national election. Chris, I appreciate the time and brain power you invest in your analyses. But I am truly on data overload. What am I interested in? What are the candidates saying and where are they saying it. How is Jack Smith’s October surprise impacting the voters? Let’s remember Comey’s “opinion” about Hillary’s emails and how it impacted the 2016 race. It is the human factor that really determines who is in the White House.
This article is why I pretty much hate polls and go more with the "fundamentals" such as what Allan Lichtman presents. Your article does not mention the polls post Dobbs, which seemed more favorable to the GOP than what actually happened. Remember the "red wave" in 2022? Or how about that election to replace Santos? In many of these cases, the polls over-estimated the GOP by as much as 5 points! Same with the primaries, that over-estimated Trump's victories over Haley.
And don't forget, as many people who lie in polls, there are many who don't take polls at all. There are "margins of error". Polls are snapshots of how people think at the moment, and though they have a place, we cannot correlate what happened in 2020 and 2016 to now. Besides what I said above, and what the article alludes to, I assume some pollsters like 538 and Cook have improved their models. Or maybe they're worse?
If folks are too ashamed of their support for Trump to even share that information with a stranger/pollster, why do they support him in the first place?
Cuz they wanna see America Great Again, it’s really ez…..
2016-2020 was "great"? OMG, how did I miss that?....
Here's food for thought: what are people thinking who are so ashamed of supporting Trump that they would lie about it?
I mean, why do I lie to the AT&T guy at Target that I already have AT&T? I feel vulnerable to the survey in the first place and am suspect of any follow-up questions.
Polling someone on their political preference is highly vulnerable. The pollee is not anonymous if it's via phone. Possibly not even anonymous if via IP address. Data leaks happen all the time. They may not be ashamed, they may just be concerned their political preference could be used against them.
Given this and American phone culture (call screening, no time for surveys, etc), I'm honestly shocked that these polls are even close to accurate. I don't know if pollsters are knowingly accounting for these biases or if binary polls tend to be pretty accurate. Still, I want to see hard proof that people are polling as Harris but voting Trump, not some inference from polling and voting data. That's a bold assumption.
boots on the ground in PA: my gut feel is that DJT support is OVER estimated in the polls. Seeing far more Harris support than the previous two elections and far less DJT support. Hardly scientific, but different vibe this time.
Thanks for sharing, Delbert! Yes, it’s anecdotal but it’s still good to hear!
This is why the Harris team is not taking anything for granted and going to places like Ripon, WI.
Polls have always been an imperfect approximation - just because they are sometimes accurate does not mean they will always be accurate. Kind of like predicting the weather. Polls give you an idea of what might happen - nothing more. The actual results will be based upon a number of factors which cannot truly be accounted for by the polls.
Sometimes, even a blind squirrel finds a nut...
It's almost as if there are good reasons why people wouldn't want to admit that they're voting for Trump but will go ahead and do it anyway.
Polling has become as accurate as Trump's opinion of his talents, importance, and sense of self-worth....
Have you read thus piece by Rick Pearlstein? Polling hasn't worked for 100 years..MUST READ and why I'm off the pollercoaster!
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/
The pollercoaster 🤣🤣🤣
Love the “pollen coaster”.
I hate auto correct! I meant the pollercoaster.
Excellent article, thanks for sharing.
People should not be so obsessed with the polls. If you like numbers, check out the MODELS. They are more scientifically reliable than these polls. And if you look at all the MODELS , you will rather be Harris now than Trump. If these trends hold Harris will be ou next President come January 2025
Looking at models is absolutely better, and furthermore there is one "best" model. It is the only one that has been constructed by true experts in statistics and back-tested on prior elections. This model is the one published by The Economist, designed by Columbia University stats professor Andrew Gelman: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
chris
glad you shared this early enough in the day for me to have my crisis, negotiate my crisis, manage my crisis and go to bed reasonably calmed down. I keep trying to focus on the trend lines... you could see that Trump was moving up in PA. that is not good, for sure. we now have our Oct surprises, can't wait for Nov 5 to roll around
A
Chris, I’m not ashamed that I’m supporting Harris, but, like many people, I don’t answer my phone from unknown numbers or reply to texts that may be poll links or may be scam links. How much bias does this lack of reaching some voters create? I know there’s supposed to be factors built in for this, but are they truly able to account for the people the pollsters can’t reach?
You’re just full of good news, aren’t you…?
😂😂😂😂😂
Don’t stop giving us your unvarnished perspectives!!!
So, basically, the race is very close, and nobody knows what's gonna happen until Nov 5th (and probably a few days later). I kinda knew that before reading this.
Harris is clearly more popular than Biden. And polling really is a mess. Both these truths means speculation is fun but not truth.
I think there's an inverse to your question that has to be asked too: have polling outfits overcorrected since 2020 and are now favoring Trump and conservatives too much? I say this because in 2022 and 23, there were indications in all sorts of votes across the country of so called "red waves" that were, at best, red ripples often. So one has to ask, did the polling outfits overcorrect themselves after their misses in 2020?
I resolved a few months ago not to pay attention to the polls. There are so many and no one can get a true read on this or any national election. Chris, I appreciate the time and brain power you invest in your analyses. But I am truly on data overload. What am I interested in? What are the candidates saying and where are they saying it. How is Jack Smith’s October surprise impacting the voters? Let’s remember Comey’s “opinion” about Hillary’s emails and how it impacted the 2016 race. It is the human factor that really determines who is in the White House.
This article is why I pretty much hate polls and go more with the "fundamentals" such as what Allan Lichtman presents. Your article does not mention the polls post Dobbs, which seemed more favorable to the GOP than what actually happened. Remember the "red wave" in 2022? Or how about that election to replace Santos? In many of these cases, the polls over-estimated the GOP by as much as 5 points! Same with the primaries, that over-estimated Trump's victories over Haley.
And don't forget, as many people who lie in polls, there are many who don't take polls at all. There are "margins of error". Polls are snapshots of how people think at the moment, and though they have a place, we cannot correlate what happened in 2020 and 2016 to now. Besides what I said above, and what the article alludes to, I assume some pollsters like 538 and Cook have improved their models. Or maybe they're worse?