Jim Jordan might just win this thing
It's all happening.
If you asked me last Friday night whether Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan would be elected Speaker of the House this week, I would have told you “no.” A hard “no.”
But, as of this writing, the momentum appears to have shifted Jordan’s way — and it looks like he just might win the House’s top job.
Consider the transformation of Missouri Rep. Ann Wagner, a close ally of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, on the idea of a Jordan speakership.
Late last week, in the rubble of Steve Scalise’s bid for speaker, NBC reached out to Wagner to see if she was a “no” on Jordan for speaker. The Missouri Congresswoman, via text, responded that she was in fact not just a “no” but a “HELL NO.”
Fast forward to Monday around noon — when Wagner took to Twitter X with this message:
Let me be clear, I am not, and will not, work with Democrats as our Republican Conference comes together to elect a conservative Speaker of the House.
Too much is at stake to hand control of the House over to radical liberal Democrats, which is why we must elect a conservative as the next Speaker. Throughout my time in Congress, I have always been a team player and supported our Republican nominees out of Conference.
Jim Jordan and I spoke at length again this morning, and he has allayed my concerns about keeping the government open with conservative funding, the need for strong border security, our need for consistent international support in times of war and unrest as well as the need for stronger protections against the scourge of human trafficking and child exploitation.
Jim Jordan is our conference nominee, and I will support his nomination for Speaker on the House floor.
BIG change, right?
Wagner wasn’t the only one to flip flop on Jordan over the past few days either. Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers, the powerful chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had said Friday that there was nothing that Jordan could do to win his vote — and that he would be voting for McCarthy.
On Monday, Rogers changed his tune.
“.@Jim_Jordan and I have had two cordial, thoughtful, and productive conversations over the past two days,” wrote Rogers on Twitter X. “We agreed on the need for Congress to pass a strong NDAA, appropriations to fund our government's vital functions, and other important legislation like the Farm Bill. As a result, I have decided to support Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House on the floor.”
Following those twin developments, Jake Sherman, founder of Punchbowl News and a veteran watcher of Capitol Hill, wrote that “the most likely path forward at this point, based on all available evidence, is that Jordan is very close to becoming the 56th speaker of the House.”
Which raises a simple question: How? As in, how did Jordan go from 152 Republican votes on Friday to at least approaching the number he needs today?
A few ways:
Jordan played hardball. Reports over the weekend made clear that Jordan and his conservative allies were leaning hard on members either opposed to him or undecided about the idea of him as Speaker.
In efforts to close the gap, lawmakers and activists close to him have taken to social media and the airwaves to blast the Republicans they believe are blocking his path to victory and encourage voters to browbeat them into supporting Mr. Jordan.
It is an extraordinary instance of Republican-on-Republican fighting that underscores the divisions that have wrought chaos inside the party, paralyzing the House of Representatives in the process. Several of Mr. Jordan’s supporters have posted the phone numbers of mainstream G.O.P. lawmakers they count as holdouts, encouraging followers to flood the Capitol switchboard with calls demanding they back Mr. Jordan — or face the wrath of conservative voters as they gear up for primary season.
Jordan’s weak spot is moderates. This is fundamentally different than the math for either McCarthy or Scalise. For McCarthy, there were a handful of arch-conservatives — led by Florida’s Matt Gaetz — who simply were never going to be for him. For Scalise, who is more conservative than McCarthy, the issue was that some of those same people thought elevating another member of House leadership — after throwing McCarthy out — was a mistake.
Jordan has the opposite problem. The House Freedom Caucus is strongly aligned behind him. The opposition to his speakership is from moderate Republicans who are worried about having a fire-breather like Jordan as their party’s leader.
And/But, these are — mostly — the same people who want the chaos to end. Who want to go back to regular working order in the House.
As one House Republican aide told NBC’s Sahil Kapur: “The people opposing him are moderates. Either he gets it or the moderates for the first time ever grow a spine.”
Or, to think of it another way — via former House Republican senior staffer Brendan Buck: “The mods we tend to talk about are ideologically as conservative as they come, but moderate in temperament, tactically cautious, willing to deal.”
Jordan is willing to go to the floor. It seemed as though Scalise was wary of putting his potential speakership to a full House floor vote unless and until he knew he had the requisite Republican votes to win. And that time never came.
After initially blanching at the idea of going to the floor without 217 votes locked up, Jordan now seems fine with it. “I don't know if there’s any way to ever get that in the room,” Jordan told CNN’s Manu Raju of the private votes taking place within the GOP conference. “But I think the only way to do this is … to vote tomorrow.”
While putting a vote on the floor without the certainty of winning is certainly a risk, it also amps up public pressure on fence sitters. Do you want to be one of the 10 people who kept Republicans without a Speaker? And are you willing to stand by that position under the bright lights? (For the answer to that question, see my moderates point above.)
Republicans don’t want a bipartisan Speaker. As Wagner’s statement makes clear, Republicans seem to sense that if Jordan fails then the next step by a chunk of their conference will be to find a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats to elect a sort of compromise Speaker. Which is a bridge too far for the Wagner types. They’d rather pick someone who is a conservative (even one about whom they have their doubts like Jordan) then let Democrats have a hand in deciding the next Speaker.
Now, look. This is House Republicans we are talking about here. We have just spent the last two weeks watching them descend into utter chaos — with no plan on how to get out of it.
And, there are clearly still pockets of discontent and worry about the prospect of Jordan as Speaker within the House GOP conference.
So things could change! Jordan could come up short.
But, what I know about these sort of races is that they are heavily momentum driven. If you look like a loser who is running out of steam (ala Scalise last week) then you are.
The opposite is also true. And right now, Jordan is trending upward — and starting to look like a winner.
On the theory you have to hit rock bottom before you begin resurrecting yourself, I’d say Jordan is about as close as you can get. They still have Hannity and Trump to go, tho.
I’d like to be a “moderate” Republican in a Biden district next year explaining that I thought it was all good to give a rodeo clown my blessing for speaker. 😉
The House "moderates' are the modern day equivalent of the "good Germans" who stood silent and watched as Storm Troopers in Berlin kicked people into the gutter.
But congratulations to Jungle Gym "what sexual abuse?" Jordan, the man who will assure a strong Democratic majority next year - assuming the republic can survive these Confederate traitors that long.