Joe Biden says he's running again. Except...

He's in. Maybe.

(Joe Biden)

Joe Biden sent his clearest signal yet on Monday that he is going to run for reelection in 2024.

“I plan on running, Al, but we’re not prepared to announce it yet,” Biden told NBC’s Al Roker before the annual Easter Egg Roll at the White House.

Which seems (almost) definitive!

Which was/is the point!

Look. There’s no question that most Democratic operatives expected Biden to already be officially in the 2024 race and campaigning actively.

Around the State of the Union — way back in February — there was public speculation that the announcement of his reelection campaign could come any day.

Obviously that didn’t happen. And, of late, there’s been informed speculation that Biden doesn’t have any immediate plans to announce.

This, from Axios, is instructive on timing:

“President Biden's advisers and close allies don't expect him to announce a run for re-election any time soon — and some now believe it could come as late as July, or perhaps even the fall.”

July! The fall!

That sort of timeline would put Biden well behind his past predecessors in office.

Donald Trump didn’t actually formally announce he was running for a 2nd term until June 2019 — although he filed a statement of candidacy for the race with the Federal Election Committee on his first day in office: January 20, 2017.

Barack Obama announced his bid for a 2nd term via a video released on April 5, 2011. George W. Bush formally filed the paperwork in May 2003 to make himself a candidate for a 2nd term.

So, yes, Biden would be behind that time table but not SO far behind.

But, Biden has something dogging him that NONE of those three past presidents had: He’s very old.¹

Old as in 80. Old as in the oldest person ever to seek a 2nd term (if he decides to seek a 2nd term).

And Biden’s age has been an issue ever since he announced he was running in 2020. Throughout the 2020 campaign, he cast himself as a necessary but a necessarily transitional figure in the party.

“Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said in March 2020 as it became clear he would be the party’s nominee. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”²

Those quotes as well as Biden’s age always made it an open question as to whether he would seek a second term. The lack of an announcement of said candidacy — as winter turns to spring — has lots and lots of Democratic activists on edge.

And those worries have been compounded even further by lingering doubts within the Democratic party over Vice President Kamala Harris’ ability to step in as the nominee if Biden does, at the last minute, take a pass.

This, from the Washington Post earlier this year, is telling:

Such concerns about Harris’s political strength were repeated often by more than a dozen Democratic leaders in key states interviewed for this story, some speaking on the condition of anonymity to convey candid thoughts. Harris’s tenure has been underwhelming, they said, marked by struggles as a communicator and at times near-invisibility, leaving many rank-and-file Democrats unpersuaded that she has the force, charisma and skill to mount a winning presidential campaign.

Biden and his team like to downplay all of those worries. They believe that the slow-starting Republican race affords him more time to make a final, final decision — and that serving as president (and not a candidate for the office) is the best way for him to position himself to win.³

But, they also hear the worries out in the ether. And know that whispers now turn into straight-up complaints — expressed on the record to reporters — later.

And so, Biden uses the national stage afforded him by Roker and the “Today Show” to quiet some of those nerves. Yes, he’s going to run. But, no, he isn’t going to announce that he is running just yet.⁴

Just chill out. All good. Nothing to worry about.

Except….

This quote appeared in an NBC News story about the preparations Biden is making to run:

Another longtime adviser, who has navigated Biden’s candidacy decisions before, said the delay also serves to “preserve the option not” to run.

And this:

Many of those in Biden’s inner circle were there eight years ago, when he appeared on the cusp of announcing his candidacy on a Tuesday night, only to declare in the Rose Garden on Wednesday afternoon that he would not run in 2016.

So….that is less good — and totally undercuts the message Biden is trying to get across with Roker. What those two paragraphs suggest is that things aren’t done —and that Biden really hasn’t totally made his mind up.

Will Biden ultimately run? I think he will! Has he made up his mind entirely on running? I don’t think so. No matter what he said today.

1. Trump was no spring chicken in 2020 but he was 74, not 80.

2. Biden was flanked by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and then California Sen. Kamala Harris

3. As I have written, I don’t totally agree with his supposition. Biden has major political liabilities that simply serving as president won’t fix.

4. If Biden was going to announce, it would be smart to do so sometime very soon — for a very practical reason. The 2nd fundraising quarter runs from April 1 to June 30, and Biden and his team would want as much time as possible to raise as much money as possible.