Joe Manchin has been spoiler all his misbegotten life. Just ask any parent of a family lifted out of poverty in 2021 by the Child Tax payments, then thrown back into poverty in 2022 by.... (wait for it)... JOE MANCHIN!
I am a conservative never Trumper. I would vote for Manchin if he were the candidate of either Republicans of Democrats. But not as a third party nominee. I will be voting for Biden if Trump is nominated.
Agreed, Chris. Manchin is not just being disingenuous, he’s being delusional as well. You may well have hit the nail on the head with your assessment that his self-perceived “power”, given the razor thin majority in the Senate and how that’s played to his advantage, has gone to his head and has furthered his delusions.
It’s him and No Labels, and the other never-gonna-be-President candidates, that scare me most about 2024 and the absolutely necessary-for-Democracy-to-survive Biden win. Stein and others took just enough away from Hillary’s left flank to give Trump the win in 2016, and other than RFK Jr who’ll likely take away from Trump as well as Biden, I fear they’ll do the same in 2024.
It is about the fossil fuels. Manchin is a coal millionaire. He used his Senatorial position to block any green energy he could. Trump has promised to end the green subsidies that were in the Inflation Reduction Act. So Manchin and his fossil friends want to see Trump win and that is why Manchin wants to split the vote. It is venal beyond imagining.
Should have included the 1968 results too, G Wallace did far better than Anderson in '80. By the way, the 1968, 1992 (and 1860 for that matter) elections remind us that if we ever abolish the Electoral College, we'd better work out a far better way than we now have for choosing a President if nobody wins the popular majority.
In the end, I don't think Manchin runs. He craves attention and relevancy, and flirting with this bid allows for Democrats to constantly coddle and placate him for months, like when the Senate was 50-50. He could've run for re-election but I think he knew he wouldn't win, so why run in a race where he knows he's definitely not going to win?
And I don't think he wants to become a pariah like Ralph Nader.
True, I just think he can live out his life doing the lobbyist, corporate board life, still schmoozing people on his boat, going back to the Capitol for backslaps and fundraisers or he can run for president, lose and become a pariah for the rest of his life. And I think he knows that.
I am kind of surprised we are talking about Manchin now when Biden gave a press conference last night after his marathon FOUR HOURS meeting with the Chinese Leader. Talk about he{ Biden} is old.
Did anybody see his age in that Press Conference? Did the Chinese President complain that Biden was tired and asleep during the FOUR HOURS marathon? NO.
The talking and writing Heads would have gone ballistic and writing and talking about`````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` Biden now if say he tripped and fell down or or made any mistake. We should be talking about the Very useful and relevant issues he discussed with the second most powerful leader in the world and not the speculation about Joe Manchin running . I thought the smart people of this community will have the opprtunity to discuss the issues Biden raised with the Chinese President yesterday. I bet if it was Trump who had the meeting and press conference yesterday, we probably would have been treated to some lines of his press conference.
My sense is, like DeSantis & Florida, Manchin will not translate well outside of West Virginia. I do not see him having much more success than Pence or Scott enjoyed on the “R” side.
I do agree with most, however, if he stays and pulls just a few votes in a couple of States, the result could be catastrophic.
Let's remind Joe Manchin about how the electoral college system works. There is no way he is going to win enough states to be in the mix to win the presidency. Even if he beats Ross Perot's numbers on vote percentage he is still miles away from putting together a scenario to win a combination of states. If his plan is to win he should have started sooner to build up an actual ability to win key states.
I predict that he will run on the No Labels ticket, Trump will win, largely due to No Labels being spoilers, but also enough of the far left that is so steeped in the anti Israeli ecosystem, and they will either sit out, or vote Stein/West or some other 3rd party vote, and that will sink Biden.
I'd love to be wrong. But I was a subscriber at The Bulwark for 3+ years, and I just canceled my membership. I agree with what they are trying to do, but it is clear that their "work" isn't really convincing the electorate. If anything, Trump's support has grown, and the amount of shirt rending they do criticizing the Dems for not being better foils is just too much to take, especially when they back hand bitchslap Biden.
Reminded me that they just wish that they could go back to the way things were, but that isn't ever going to happen. Trumpism is here to stay, it is growing, and until the former right wing - supposedly sane - pols figure out how to fix their base, their reliance on Dems to solve their problems is enraging, especially their wagging of fingers.
Yes, I know Biden is old. I know that people don't like Kamala. I'll grant that the amount of antisemitism in the far left and young is worrying, but Biden getting tougher with them reduces his odds of winning in '24.
I know these former Republicans would prefer someone like Manchin if they *must* have a democrat in the POTUS office.
I wish I could share your optimism, but alas, I think you are incorrect in this case. The split of the young left voters over Israel/Palestine/Hamas is going to fragment the Democratic coalition, and hand the election handily to Trump.
I don't care about Biden's age, but a LOT of the convincible middle ("independents") do care, and for some reason, they do believe that Trump has more "vigor". Makes no sense to me, but this is a very real undercurrent.
Lastly, the "Never Trump" Republicans are good at casting stones, and highlighting hypocrisy, they just are not having any tangible effect to motivate the "middle" to shun Trump.
Great article Chris. I want to see a centrist third-party option emerge and win, I really do. But it is just not in the cards. The US needs electoral reform (abolishing the Electoral College and RCV) before it becomes possible. That is just the reality.
Chris, I don't want to see a third party candidate in this race for the reasons you stated. Trump's support is really solid so it would only hurt Biden. What you said about his delusions of power is true for the Senate, but I doubt that translates to votes. But even 1% could make a difference.
Excellent commentary as always, but I'll stick to my original response when CC wrote about Manchin last week-ish:
I'll worry about a Manchin 3rd party bid in Feb/March when he announces. Last time I also asked for a clean CR, before worrying about Manchin's bid. Well, we got that but now I need to worry about that again in Mid Jan and again in early Feb. So once again, I'm going to need to be more concerned about congressional dysfunction than Manchin wanting to remain relevant OR getting my heart rate up over a "possible" third party bid.
I am sort of a fan of the conspiracy laiden comment about Manchin and coal and money. It may be a bit of a stretch, but I'll give it a bit of error for S&Gs.
Joe Manchin has been spoiler all his misbegotten life. Just ask any parent of a family lifted out of poverty in 2021 by the Child Tax payments, then thrown back into poverty in 2022 by.... (wait for it)... JOE MANCHIN!
I am a conservative never Trumper. I would vote for Manchin if he were the candidate of either Republicans of Democrats. But not as a third party nominee. I will be voting for Biden if Trump is nominated.
Agreed, Chris. Manchin is not just being disingenuous, he’s being delusional as well. You may well have hit the nail on the head with your assessment that his self-perceived “power”, given the razor thin majority in the Senate and how that’s played to his advantage, has gone to his head and has furthered his delusions.
It’s him and No Labels, and the other never-gonna-be-President candidates, that scare me most about 2024 and the absolutely necessary-for-Democracy-to-survive Biden win. Stein and others took just enough away from Hillary’s left flank to give Trump the win in 2016, and other than RFK Jr who’ll likely take away from Trump as well as Biden, I fear they’ll do the same in 2024.
This is just too scary to imagine.
It is about the fossil fuels. Manchin is a coal millionaire. He used his Senatorial position to block any green energy he could. Trump has promised to end the green subsidies that were in the Inflation Reduction Act. So Manchin and his fossil friends want to see Trump win and that is why Manchin wants to split the vote. It is venal beyond imagining.
I tend to agree with this.
Manchin is a pathetic person. He is slowly becoming an irrelevant talking head.
He knows he will be kicked to his "appreciative" constituents after bringing in all that lobbyist money to himself and his family.
Not sure why the voters would not be happy to vote for the man who pushed off on them getting internet connections.
Should have included the 1968 results too, G Wallace did far better than Anderson in '80. By the way, the 1968, 1992 (and 1860 for that matter) elections remind us that if we ever abolish the Electoral College, we'd better work out a far better way than we now have for choosing a President if nobody wins the popular majority.
In the end, I don't think Manchin runs. He craves attention and relevancy, and flirting with this bid allows for Democrats to constantly coddle and placate him for months, like when the Senate was 50-50. He could've run for re-election but I think he knew he wouldn't win, so why run in a race where he knows he's definitely not going to win?
And I don't think he wants to become a pariah like Ralph Nader.
I found this story on Nader to be enlightening: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/26/ralph-nader-joe-biden-election/
He'll also have media cameras following him, which he will love.
True, I just think he can live out his life doing the lobbyist, corporate board life, still schmoozing people on his boat, going back to the Capitol for backslaps and fundraisers or he can run for president, lose and become a pariah for the rest of his life. And I think he knows that.
Agree. One of the (many) things he likes to say is that he's never lost an election. I doubt he wants to give up that line.
I am kind of surprised we are talking about Manchin now when Biden gave a press conference last night after his marathon FOUR HOURS meeting with the Chinese Leader. Talk about he{ Biden} is old.
Did anybody see his age in that Press Conference? Did the Chinese President complain that Biden was tired and asleep during the FOUR HOURS marathon? NO.
The talking and writing Heads would have gone ballistic and writing and talking about`````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` Biden now if say he tripped and fell down or or made any mistake. We should be talking about the Very useful and relevant issues he discussed with the second most powerful leader in the world and not the speculation about Joe Manchin running . I thought the smart people of this community will have the opprtunity to discuss the issues Biden raised with the Chinese President yesterday. I bet if it was Trump who had the meeting and press conference yesterday, we probably would have been treated to some lines of his press conference.
My sense is, like DeSantis & Florida, Manchin will not translate well outside of West Virginia. I do not see him having much more success than Pence or Scott enjoyed on the “R” side.
I do agree with most, however, if he stays and pulls just a few votes in a couple of States, the result could be catastrophic.
Let's remind Joe Manchin about how the electoral college system works. There is no way he is going to win enough states to be in the mix to win the presidency. Even if he beats Ross Perot's numbers on vote percentage he is still miles away from putting together a scenario to win a combination of states. If his plan is to win he should have started sooner to build up an actual ability to win key states.
It’s not the reality he believes, it’s the reality Joe Manchin chooses to live in. He’s a legend in his own mind.
Good write up.
I predict that he will run on the No Labels ticket, Trump will win, largely due to No Labels being spoilers, but also enough of the far left that is so steeped in the anti Israeli ecosystem, and they will either sit out, or vote Stein/West or some other 3rd party vote, and that will sink Biden.
God, I hope you’re wrong, and I’ll do whatever I can to make sure you are!
I'd love to be wrong. But I was a subscriber at The Bulwark for 3+ years, and I just canceled my membership. I agree with what they are trying to do, but it is clear that their "work" isn't really convincing the electorate. If anything, Trump's support has grown, and the amount of shirt rending they do criticizing the Dems for not being better foils is just too much to take, especially when they back hand bitchslap Biden.
Reminded me that they just wish that they could go back to the way things were, but that isn't ever going to happen. Trumpism is here to stay, it is growing, and until the former right wing - supposedly sane - pols figure out how to fix their base, their reliance on Dems to solve their problems is enraging, especially their wagging of fingers.
Yes, I know Biden is old. I know that people don't like Kamala. I'll grant that the amount of antisemitism in the far left and young is worrying, but Biden getting tougher with them reduces his odds of winning in '24.
I know these former Republicans would prefer someone like Manchin if they *must* have a democrat in the POTUS office.
Geoff, I disagree with you . Biden is going to WIN in 2024.
I would refer you an article this Morning by Nicholas Creel in the Newsweek..
With or without Joe Manchin. I see you also mentioned Biden is old , so is Trump.
I wish I could share your optimism, but alas, I think you are incorrect in this case. The split of the young left voters over Israel/Palestine/Hamas is going to fragment the Democratic coalition, and hand the election handily to Trump.
I don't care about Biden's age, but a LOT of the convincible middle ("independents") do care, and for some reason, they do believe that Trump has more "vigor". Makes no sense to me, but this is a very real undercurrent.
Lastly, the "Never Trump" Republicans are good at casting stones, and highlighting hypocrisy, they just are not having any tangible effect to motivate the "middle" to shun Trump.
No bueno.
Great article Chris. I want to see a centrist third-party option emerge and win, I really do. But it is just not in the cards. The US needs electoral reform (abolishing the Electoral College and RCV) before it becomes possible. That is just the reality.
Chris, I don't want to see a third party candidate in this race for the reasons you stated. Trump's support is really solid so it would only hurt Biden. What you said about his delusions of power is true for the Senate, but I doubt that translates to votes. But even 1% could make a difference.
I'd love to know what colour the sky is in Senator Manchin's world.
Excellent commentary as always, but I'll stick to my original response when CC wrote about Manchin last week-ish:
I'll worry about a Manchin 3rd party bid in Feb/March when he announces. Last time I also asked for a clean CR, before worrying about Manchin's bid. Well, we got that but now I need to worry about that again in Mid Jan and again in early Feb. So once again, I'm going to need to be more concerned about congressional dysfunction than Manchin wanting to remain relevant OR getting my heart rate up over a "possible" third party bid.
I am sort of a fan of the conspiracy laiden comment about Manchin and coal and money. It may be a bit of a stretch, but I'll give it a bit of error for S&Gs.
I'll give it a bit of AIR for S&Gs.
Danged auto-correct.