Kamala Harris blinks

On a weird VP choice.

Vice President Kamala Harris has chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate.

Before I go ANY further let me stipulate a few things:

1. VP picks, in the modern era, have very limited effect on the top of the ticket

2. Walz has a great personal story — rural roots, history teacher, football coach, military, member of Congress — and has shown himself to be an effective messenger in his brief time in the national spotlight

3. Harris, no matter who she picked as VP, is no worse than a coin flip to be the next president of the United States.

Ok, with that out of the way, let me now say this: Picking Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is, to me, a very odd decision.

I have made the case — as recently as last night! — that Shapiro was something close to a no-brainer pick. Why? Because he is the popular governor of the state that, more than any other, Harris needs to win in order to claim the presidency.

I remind you, this is what the electoral map looks like if Harris wins Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin but loses Pennsylvania:

Again, picking Shapiro wouldn’t have assured that Harris won Pennsylvania. But it would have — even slightly — increased the odds. Yes, of course, Shapiro will work hard to help Harris carry the state anyway. But it’s simply not the same dynamic as having Shapiro ON the ticket.

So, why did Harris pick Walz and not Shapiro then?

I am sure she felt a personal rapport with him. Which matters! And liked his plain Midwesterner vibe. Which (might) matter!

But, man, it sure does seem that Harris’ hand was guided — too much in my opinion — by what the very online left thought of her two VP finalists.

Social media spent the last week bashing Shapiro as a) too pro-Israel and b) too moderate. The idea was that if Harris picked Shapiro he would lose young voters, who are skeptical of politicians who unequivocally side with Israel in the ongoing Middle East conflict, and lose liberals who wanted someone more in line with their ideological beliefs.

I was — and am — very skeptical of that logic. Would young voters or liberals really have walked away from Harris and either a) not voted or b) voted for Donald Trump just because she picked a VP nominee they didn’t love? I highly doubt it!

But, what’s without question true is that the online left very much wanted Walz over Shapiro. Walz essentially rose to prominence over the past two weeks — and vaulted himself to the vice presidency — by his viral assertion that Republicans were “weird.”

That name-calling stuck — in a way that very few anti-Trump messages have in the past 9 years. And the online left LOVED it. Finally, someone was telling it how it is! This is what we need more of in the party! Etc.

Again, I am not saying Harris picked Walz solely because he called Republicans “weird.” Or solely because he became the darling of the online left during the veepstakes.

But, the reaction of liberals — particularly online — clearly played a role in her turn away from Shapiro and toward Walz.

I’m with Damon Linker (as almost always) on this:

But, the liberal base of the party isn’t, really, Harris’ target audience. They are already with her — whether because they love her (and the history-making nature of her candidacy) or because they HATE Trump.

Who Harris needs to win are on-the-fence voters in the Midwest. Maybe she believes Walz helps the most with that! And he might!

But, ideologically speaking, doubling down on the whole “liberal” thing may not be the best idea for Harris as she tries to reach centrist voters .

Here’s what the Wall Street Journal wrote about Walz a few days ago:

But Walz, now on Kamala Harris’s shortlist for the vice-presidential slot, has governed more to the left than expected. He supported universal free school meals for students, voting rights for the formerly incarcerated, driver’s licenses for migrants who crossed the border illegally, and recreational marijuana, and he signed a law that made abortion a “fundamental right.” 

To win in November, Harris likely needs to do the reverse of what Walz did. She already is distancing herself from some of the more progressive parts of her record, some dating from her 2020 Democratic presidential primary campaign, in a gradual move to the middle, even as former President Donald Trump works to brand her a San Francisco “ultraliberal.”

Republicans are already casting the Harris-Walz ticket as way too liberal for America.

Will it stick? WAY too early to say.

But, make no mistake: Harris is taking a MAJOR risk in doubling down on liberal politics here. And walking away from the popular governor of the swing state she needs most to win in November.

It might work! As I often say: I don’t have a monopoly on good or right ideas! But, to me, Shapiro made WAY more sense as a VP pick. That Harris passed on him — at least in part to the very online left’s feelings — is worrisome.