One quote that explains Jim Jordan's appeal to House Republicans

Fear is a powerful motivator

(Jim Jordan)

Some time around noon today, the House will go back into session. And the vote on Jim Jordan’s bid to be Speaker will begin.

I don’t know how it will end. My guess is that Jordan, the Ohio Republican and Donald Trump favorite, won’t get the 218 votes he needs on the first ballot. If I had to guess, I think I would lean to Jordan, eventually, getting the votes, however.

This quote — from North Dakota moderate Kelly Armstrong — perfectly explains why.

“He’s the best person to keep us out of a government shutdown and the best person to keep conservative media off our backs as we face a shutdown,” Armstrong told the Washington Post of his message to other members on why to get behind Jordan.

“The best person to keep conservative media off our backs as we face a shutdown.”

Yes, that’s it exactly.

To understand what Armstrong is saying — and how on the nose it is — you have to understand this fundamental fact about politicians: Their first, second and third priority — always — is self preservation.

The first thing they think about in the morning is how to win reelection. The last thing they think about before they go to bed is how to win reelection. And they spend an inordinate amount of time during the day thinking about it too.

Every action they take in Congress is measured against this standard: Will this help me or hurt me when I run for reelection?

That includes, of course, this Speaker vote.

Enter Fox News — and Jordan’s allies on the hard right.

Since Friday, both have been hammering away on holdouts — mostly moderates — with not-so-veiled threats about what might happen to them if they don’t get behind Jordan.

Sean Hannity, perhaps the most well -known personality in the Fox orbit, sent out emails to undecided members over the weekend asking “why during a war breaking out between Israel and Hamas, with the war in Ukraine, with wide open borders, with an unfinished budget would Rep. XXXX be against Jim Jordan for Speaker?”

On Monday, Hannity defended his actions. “That’s my job…to ask these questions,” he said. (Uh, ok.)

And, as the New York Times noted in a piece over the weekend, Jordan’s conservative friends in Congress have been using the same sort of hardball tactics. As the Times wrote:

In efforts to close the gap, lawmakers and activists close to him have taken to social media and the airwaves to blast the Republicans they believe are blocking his path to victory and encourage voters to browbeat them into supporting Mr. Jordan.

The unspoken — but widely acknowledged — threat here is that a vote against Jordan today will put a target on your back. That the likes of Hannity — and the rest of the Fox News nation — will go after you. That a primary challenge to you will be encouraged. In short, that voting against Jordan could cost you your job.

This is not an idle threat. As we have seen repeatedly over the past 6 years, those who cross the Trump wing of the party often pay for it with their careers. Jeff Flake. Adam Kinzinger. Liz Cheney. And, most recently, Mitt Romney.

Those are the stakes. Which is why, on Monday, we saw so many establishment Republicans — Ann Wagner of Missouri, Mike Rogers of Alabama etc. — flip flop from vehemently opposed to Jordan to suddenly supportive of him.

The question Jordan’s backers — including Hannity — are really asking is this: Is it really worth losing your job to vote against Jim Jordan?

Might enough Republican House members decide that their principles are more important than a primary challenge? Sure — especially considering that just a handful of “no” votes would keep Jordan from the speakership.

But, if the recent past is prologue, the threats being made by Fox News and the Trumpian right will have a considerable effect on members still on-the-fence about Jordan. No one wants to lose their job if it came be avoided.