Always love reading your analysis Chris, thank you! I do think a lot of Democrats *wish* someone other than Biden will run, and that is having a negative impact on his ratings. I'm optimistic that once he really does become the nominee, they will gravitate back towards him - if for no other reason than their distrust of former President Trump.
That said, are Democrats doing enough to advocate for Biden? It doesn't seem like there are a lot of folks out there making the case that (a) the economy is strong, (b) the unemployment rate is low, (c) crime is going down. The metrics on many things that matter to people seem to favor Biden, and I'm surprised there aren't a lot of voices out there advocating for him.
Well, yeah, almost every time I see the latest economic numbers, they look pretty good. I think he's doing as well as any Democrat would in dealing with a dysfunctional House and a challenging foreign situation. But in a hyperpartisan climate, job performance doesn't matter as much as it should. Nor does it matter that Trump seems to be showing his age even more than Biden.
I don’t believe most voters have gotten a really good look at Donald Trump lately. People here have and many more will by next November when Trump will a year more insane.
He’s fortunate to have the excuse for skipping the debates of being so far ahead. What’s his excuse going to be for not debating President Biden?
Maybe that won’t make a difference and enough people in this country will decide to return a bat crap crazy, narcissistic wannabe dictator to the White House.
Even if that is the case, I’m not going to spend the next 12 months making myself crazy with the possibility.
We cannot count on free media to save democracy. They want a horse race and drama. With little bad to say about Biden they repeat the age issue without substance to back that it is really a problem.
Time to start the paid media early and strong. Trump is old and a rambling fool. Republicans will destroy the economy, environment, take away rights, make fear and hate with guns the norm......
There's also the fact that, according to the Very Professional Pollsters Who Know It All Always, over the past 32 years, the following people should have faced up to reality, folded their tents and taken the circus home, and stopped bothering us with their clueless, fruitless campaigns they were going to wate money on over the next 12 months, since the People Who Knew It All Always could clearly demonstrate with numbers and statistics that their cause was hopeless and they were nothing but miserable failures and losers and as we know, General George Patton told everyone that "Americans love to win and they will not tolerate losers." That collection of losers and foolish campaigners included: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama (twice) and Donald Trump.
And for god's sake, stay away from cable news today. Just like FleeceBlock and the rest of the hellscape of so-shall mee-dee-ya!, their algorithms know that Anger And Upset Will Bring The Eyeballs. Watching Steve Kornacki, who knows better, waste 15 minutes of his life he'll never get back taking this bullshit seriously made me glad that the Great Big TV I inherited from a late friend is far too expensive to replace for me to throw things at it,.
And now, Mr. Howard Beale has informed me he would like me to pass along some advice to you all regarding the proper response to all this:
"I want you to go over to your window, open it and stick your head out and yell at the top of your lungs, 'I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take anymore!' Yell it!"
And then take the Anger and Upset and Disgust, which are excellent energy sources, and transform them into useful energy by finding that part of the campaign where you can make a contribution of time and effort no one else can, and...
DO. IT.
Follow the advice of my old boss Willie Brown: forget the polls and run like you're ten points down till the polls close. And then celebrate.
I appreciate you breaking this down, Chris. I freely admit, my eye twitched at seeing these polls yesterday.
Nevada +9 feels a tad extreme as does this:
New polls by The New York Times and Siena College found that 22 percent of Black voters in six of the most important battleground states said they would support former President Donald J. Trump in next year’s election.
That said, I am actually terrified about next year.
I want to challenge one point -- I agree with most of it -- and that is that we're a "50/50 country." No we're not, not really. It's only because gerrymandering and the Electoral College that the Republicans overperform compared to their numbers. It's worth noting that with one exception, Democrats have outpolled Republicans in every presidential race since 1992. (The exception was the post-9/11 Bush re-elect of 2012.)
You mean 2004 (not 2012). Just a note on that -- if not for the extensive voter suppression by Republican Ken Blackwell in Ohio, Bush would have lost that election. And Republicans are even more aggressive at stopping Ds from voting now than they were then
Once again proof that Americans are some of the least informed voters among western democratic nations. The usual "post hoc ergo propter hoc" logical fallacy of the truly simple minded.
Inflation would no different if Trump was still President. The U.S. has had if not the lowest, nearly the lowest, inflation among modern capitalist countries. We had a number of years of near-zero inflation and stagnant wages, which was neither normal or healthy.
Russia would have invaded and conquered Ukraine. Hamas would have attacked Israel and Trump would have wanted MORE INDISCRIMINATE BOMBING.
Trump's campaign platform is "revenge". That's it. Many of the people who worked for him are disgusted by him, and will come out of the woodwork with their individual horror stories if he actually becomes the GOP nominee.
None of his four criminal cases have begun; no evidence has been presented to the public. Biden's media team will be playing Trump's "Only mobster's take the Fifth!" statement over and over again, comparing it to Trump's actual decision not to actually take the stand.
In other words. Take a breath. if not completely relax.
Republicans are pretending to have a primary when Trump is the ore-ordained candidate, without a doubt. Democrats are pretending that anyone other than Joe Biden can beat Donald Trump in 2024. Biden has beaten Trump before, and if Democrats will quit with the “if only we had another candidate” or the “I am not going to vote for Biden because_______”, he can do it again. We need to stop pretending that a perfect candidate will magically appear in 2024, and start beefing up the pro-Biden presidency and democratic office holders all down the ballot. If we don’t, we’ll be saying hello to our new president, Donald J Trump.
Chris, once again I need to express my appreciation for your analysis. It sure seems grounded in reality, not wishful "whistling past the graveyard" thinking. I count on your sober analysis every time. Thank you!
More horserace analysis and polling-for-clicks is not what we need.
Come on.
The GOP has decided it will steal elections it doesn't win. It is in open revolt against Constitutional government and its likely candidate will be campaigning as a charged felon. Meanwhile, the right-wing media system is pumping out lies by the metric ton to say right is left and up is down.
Once again, Chris, I totally agree with this. While I wish that Biden had stepped aside, I think it is too late in the game. The beginning of 2023 should have been the time to hand the reins to someone else. With all of this being said, it blows my mind that Trump would even have a remote chance of even being the nominee let alone getting back in the White House. Who knows, maybe his insane antics in the courtroom today will boost him up even more 😳
I agree with Chris and JVL. Or, more precisely, I believe it insufficient to look at this poll and assume that another Democratic candidate would do better.
"Maybe Biden is the best man to [defend democracy].”
Indeed, maybe he is! On what basis, considering all of the variables that are already baked in and also considering that Team Biden has scarcely even begun to campaign and the former guy's legal difficulties get worse and worse, does one suppose that swapping in someone else would improve the anti-former guy coalition's electoral prospects?
There is a logical fallacy inherent in the assertion that "it’s counterproductive to prop him up if it turns out that he is not, in fact, a bulwark against authoritarianism."
It is a matter of tense. "If it turns out" is a retrospective formulation. There will be no propping after the election is run and we know the answer.
I absolutely believe that one must look at all of the information in a candid and unsentimental way. To do so is quite different from what appears to be simply laying down a marker to which one might return in "told you so" fashion.
By all means, make a substantive case that a specified alternative candidate would fare better. I am eager to consider such.
The problem for Biden is that there are TWO incumbents. Trump could say that "I have the pre-pandemic economy and no wars." And then Biden has to say "Well I have the cost of living crisis with two wars with a third possible in Taiwan." This is a crude and misleading way to put things, but there you go. Voters tend to give credit of things of what happens during a presidency to the president. Americans do not really care what happens abroad... which is going to lead into trouble down the way as the trans-Atlantic link gets weaker every year. Trump could sever the link.
Always love reading your analysis Chris, thank you! I do think a lot of Democrats *wish* someone other than Biden will run, and that is having a negative impact on his ratings. I'm optimistic that once he really does become the nominee, they will gravitate back towards him - if for no other reason than their distrust of former President Trump.
That said, are Democrats doing enough to advocate for Biden? It doesn't seem like there are a lot of folks out there making the case that (a) the economy is strong, (b) the unemployment rate is low, (c) crime is going down. The metrics on many things that matter to people seem to favor Biden, and I'm surprised there aren't a lot of voices out there advocating for him.
Well, yeah, almost every time I see the latest economic numbers, they look pretty good. I think he's doing as well as any Democrat would in dealing with a dysfunctional House and a challenging foreign situation. But in a hyperpartisan climate, job performance doesn't matter as much as it should. Nor does it matter that Trump seems to be showing his age even more than Biden.
I don’t believe most voters have gotten a really good look at Donald Trump lately. People here have and many more will by next November when Trump will a year more insane.
He’s fortunate to have the excuse for skipping the debates of being so far ahead. What’s his excuse going to be for not debating President Biden?
Maybe that won’t make a difference and enough people in this country will decide to return a bat crap crazy, narcissistic wannabe dictator to the White House.
Even if that is the case, I’m not going to spend the next 12 months making myself crazy with the possibility.
We cannot count on free media to save democracy. They want a horse race and drama. With little bad to say about Biden they repeat the age issue without substance to back that it is really a problem.
Time to start the paid media early and strong. Trump is old and a rambling fool. Republicans will destroy the economy, environment, take away rights, make fear and hate with guns the norm......
All good points, Chris. Very solid.
There's also the fact that, according to the Very Professional Pollsters Who Know It All Always, over the past 32 years, the following people should have faced up to reality, folded their tents and taken the circus home, and stopped bothering us with their clueless, fruitless campaigns they were going to wate money on over the next 12 months, since the People Who Knew It All Always could clearly demonstrate with numbers and statistics that their cause was hopeless and they were nothing but miserable failures and losers and as we know, General George Patton told everyone that "Americans love to win and they will not tolerate losers." That collection of losers and foolish campaigners included: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama (twice) and Donald Trump.
And for god's sake, stay away from cable news today. Just like FleeceBlock and the rest of the hellscape of so-shall mee-dee-ya!, their algorithms know that Anger And Upset Will Bring The Eyeballs. Watching Steve Kornacki, who knows better, waste 15 minutes of his life he'll never get back taking this bullshit seriously made me glad that the Great Big TV I inherited from a late friend is far too expensive to replace for me to throw things at it,.
And now, Mr. Howard Beale has informed me he would like me to pass along some advice to you all regarding the proper response to all this:
"I want you to go over to your window, open it and stick your head out and yell at the top of your lungs, 'I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take anymore!' Yell it!"
And then take the Anger and Upset and Disgust, which are excellent energy sources, and transform them into useful energy by finding that part of the campaign where you can make a contribution of time and effort no one else can, and...
DO. IT.
Follow the advice of my old boss Willie Brown: forget the polls and run like you're ten points down till the polls close. And then celebrate.
Do I wish Biden would have stepped aside to allow some younger Dems to run and reinvigorate the national party?
Without question.
Do I think these polls reflect actual voter day reality?
Absolutely not.
There are tons of folks (non-MAGAs) not happy with Biden: age, some aspects of economy, border, Israel
But all that pales for most of them when it comes down to picking Biden vs trump when that’s the choice.
They’ll pick Biden.
Simple as that, really.
(I acknowledge some will go 3rd party, but not clear yet who is hurt more by that. )
I appreciate you breaking this down, Chris. I freely admit, my eye twitched at seeing these polls yesterday.
Nevada +9 feels a tad extreme as does this:
New polls by The New York Times and Siena College found that 22 percent of Black voters in six of the most important battleground states said they would support former President Donald J. Trump in next year’s election.
That said, I am actually terrified about next year.
We can hang out in the terrified camp together
Save me a seat.
You’ve got it!
I want to challenge one point -- I agree with most of it -- and that is that we're a "50/50 country." No we're not, not really. It's only because gerrymandering and the Electoral College that the Republicans overperform compared to their numbers. It's worth noting that with one exception, Democrats have outpolled Republicans in every presidential race since 1992. (The exception was the post-9/11 Bush re-elect of 2012.)
You mean 2004 (not 2012). Just a note on that -- if not for the extensive voter suppression by Republican Ken Blackwell in Ohio, Bush would have lost that election. And Republicans are even more aggressive at stopping Ds from voting now than they were then
As I posted to Chris the other day, it's tough to proofread one's own writing. Yes, of course, 2004.
My own proofreading sucks (the technical term) -- I just wanted to make it clear for your audience -- your comment was spot on.
Indeed. But it is still scary that there is a possibility Trump returns to the White HOUSE!!!!!!
Once again proof that Americans are some of the least informed voters among western democratic nations. The usual "post hoc ergo propter hoc" logical fallacy of the truly simple minded.
Inflation would no different if Trump was still President. The U.S. has had if not the lowest, nearly the lowest, inflation among modern capitalist countries. We had a number of years of near-zero inflation and stagnant wages, which was neither normal or healthy.
Russia would have invaded and conquered Ukraine. Hamas would have attacked Israel and Trump would have wanted MORE INDISCRIMINATE BOMBING.
Trump's campaign platform is "revenge". That's it. Many of the people who worked for him are disgusted by him, and will come out of the woodwork with their individual horror stories if he actually becomes the GOP nominee.
None of his four criminal cases have begun; no evidence has been presented to the public. Biden's media team will be playing Trump's "Only mobster's take the Fifth!" statement over and over again, comparing it to Trump's actual decision not to actually take the stand.
In other words. Take a breath. if not completely relax.
Republicans are pretending to have a primary when Trump is the ore-ordained candidate, without a doubt. Democrats are pretending that anyone other than Joe Biden can beat Donald Trump in 2024. Biden has beaten Trump before, and if Democrats will quit with the “if only we had another candidate” or the “I am not going to vote for Biden because_______”, he can do it again. We need to stop pretending that a perfect candidate will magically appear in 2024, and start beefing up the pro-Biden presidency and democratic office holders all down the ballot. If we don’t, we’ll be saying hello to our new president, Donald J Trump.
Nerve-racking.
Chris, once again I need to express my appreciation for your analysis. It sure seems grounded in reality, not wishful "whistling past the graveyard" thinking. I count on your sober analysis every time. Thank you!
More horserace analysis and polling-for-clicks is not what we need.
Come on.
The GOP has decided it will steal elections it doesn't win. It is in open revolt against Constitutional government and its likely candidate will be campaigning as a charged felon. Meanwhile, the right-wing media system is pumping out lies by the metric ton to say right is left and up is down.
But sure let's run a poll like it's 2012.
Once again, Chris, I totally agree with this. While I wish that Biden had stepped aside, I think it is too late in the game. The beginning of 2023 should have been the time to hand the reins to someone else. With all of this being said, it blows my mind that Trump would even have a remote chance of even being the nominee let alone getting back in the White House. Who knows, maybe his insane antics in the courtroom today will boost him up even more 😳
I agree with Chris and JVL. Or, more precisely, I believe it insufficient to look at this poll and assume that another Democratic candidate would do better.
As I noted in response to Charlie Sykes:
https://substack.com/@decencyandsense/note/c-43164806?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=2lagj
"Maybe Biden is the best man to [defend democracy].”
Indeed, maybe he is! On what basis, considering all of the variables that are already baked in and also considering that Team Biden has scarcely even begun to campaign and the former guy's legal difficulties get worse and worse, does one suppose that swapping in someone else would improve the anti-former guy coalition's electoral prospects?
There is a logical fallacy inherent in the assertion that "it’s counterproductive to prop him up if it turns out that he is not, in fact, a bulwark against authoritarianism."
It is a matter of tense. "If it turns out" is a retrospective formulation. There will be no propping after the election is run and we know the answer.
I absolutely believe that one must look at all of the information in a candid and unsentimental way. To do so is quite different from what appears to be simply laying down a marker to which one might return in "told you so" fashion.
By all means, make a substantive case that a specified alternative candidate would fare better. I am eager to consider such.
The problem for Biden is that there are TWO incumbents. Trump could say that "I have the pre-pandemic economy and no wars." And then Biden has to say "Well I have the cost of living crisis with two wars with a third possible in Taiwan." This is a crude and misleading way to put things, but there you go. Voters tend to give credit of things of what happens during a presidency to the president. Americans do not really care what happens abroad... which is going to lead into trouble down the way as the trans-Atlantic link gets weaker every year. Trump could sever the link.