Can you comment on the Cruz/Allred race? I was very impressed with what I saw of him in their debate (seen enough of Cruz), but are there votes to be had there? Can Allred affect Harris’s turnout? PS: if you’ve raised a cumulative $1B, STOP texting me!
The MAGAsphere is going nuts over Harris' Fox interview. The claim is that she was disrespectful and mean to Bair. I thought her taking him to task over interrupting her were appropriate as was her calling him out over the wrong Trump clip being used. I would have been a LOT more brutal to Bair over the clip issue. Thoughts?
HI Chris -- ok, so let's say it's Election Night and results are coming in. What's the over/under on when Trump declares victory, regardless of the count? I'm thinking 10:50 pm ET.
What information can the two political parties, and those of us following the election, gather from early voting numbers about the state of the race? I voted early, mainly because i was told it would help my party (D) get out as much of their vote as possible by focusing on the base they haven't yet banked. How does this work? Do they just base a projection on historical data (i.e that Dems normally vote a certain % more than the GOP in early voting)? Or do they know that I'm a white, college educated voter, in my late 40s, and put a probability on how I voted?
I was shocked at the 1st week turnout in GA, but is that due to Democrat enthusiasm or Republicans beginning to embrace early voting?
Chris- Please tell us why pollsters don't leave voicemails! They would get a far better response rate and be more representative of the population (because who answers calls from unknown numbers?).
Trump has had 3 episodes of particularly delusional and bizarre behavior. I have no words regarding the disco rally. His session with Bloomberg chief where he told him he was wrong. Blaming the war in Ukraine on Zelensky. Has any of this changed the numbers? Will it?
I agree with you that Harris needs to find a break from Biden - the Fox interview answer was a start but I'd think she needs to do more. Wouldn't it have made sense on the immigration question to say something like "when we arrive, we tried a more humane approach to immigration. In retrospect, it looks like it went to far and it drove people to the border. We tried to negotiate a solution and when that was blocked we used Executive Action to significantly reduce the flow. As President, I think we can do both."
That doesn't totally throw Biden under the bus but admits a mistake (most of electorate thinks it is already) so you acknowledge reality and come across more sincere/honest.
Chris, when I see attack ads on Trump, it seems the ads are not focused on the most egregious things I see Trump say or do. But I’m a political nobody that doesn’t know squat about effective campaigning. What about you - do you feel the ads against Trump use the right material based on your knowledge of Trump?
Love the Sunday recommendations - great new feature. Do you think Democrats should be happy being in a toss up election with Donald Trump or should they be frustrated that Kamala Harris is not doing better? On the one hand Donald Trump seems eminently beatable given how crazy he is. On the other hand he has a large group of followers and the incumbent Democratic President is very unpopular. I guess I am asking if you think that a different Democratic candidate could be in a much better position than Harris is right now. Thanks!
Hey Chris I was wondering about the "Hidden Harris" vote phenomenon where in this case Its Harris in 2024 outperforming her poll numbers rather than Trump who outperformed his numbers in both 2016 and 2020, do you believe that this could be true this year??
What do you think about the reporting that Republicans may be “gaming” the polling averages at 538 and RCP with 60 new polls in the last month that are Republican-paid-for? For example, 12 of 15 recent polls in PA are Republican-paid.
Simon Rosenberg (clearly a left-leaning partisan) and others identified this chicanery with the 2022 midterms and the supposed “red wave”. It worked *then*, as Democrats moved money OUT of races they felt they couldn’t win, based upon those poll averages, but the election results *proved* that they were tighter than thought, affecting the control of the House and the tightness of the Senate.
I’m wondering if we’re seeing the same thing now, with the MSM narrative that “the race is tightening for Trump”. What do you think, Chris?
Can you comment on the Cruz/Allred race? I was very impressed with what I saw of him in their debate (seen enough of Cruz), but are there votes to be had there? Can Allred affect Harris’s turnout? PS: if you’ve raised a cumulative $1B, STOP texting me!
The MAGAsphere is going nuts over Harris' Fox interview. The claim is that she was disrespectful and mean to Bair. I thought her taking him to task over interrupting her were appropriate as was her calling him out over the wrong Trump clip being used. I would have been a LOT more brutal to Bair over the clip issue. Thoughts?
HI Chris -- ok, so let's say it's Election Night and results are coming in. What's the over/under on when Trump declares victory, regardless of the count? I'm thinking 10:50 pm ET.
Oh good Question!
What information can the two political parties, and those of us following the election, gather from early voting numbers about the state of the race? I voted early, mainly because i was told it would help my party (D) get out as much of their vote as possible by focusing on the base they haven't yet banked. How does this work? Do they just base a projection on historical data (i.e that Dems normally vote a certain % more than the GOP in early voting)? Or do they know that I'm a white, college educated voter, in my late 40s, and put a probability on how I voted?
I was shocked at the 1st week turnout in GA, but is that due to Democrat enthusiasm or Republicans beginning to embrace early voting?
Chris- Please tell us why pollsters don't leave voicemails! They would get a far better response rate and be more representative of the population (because who answers calls from unknown numbers?).
Can you opine on the “rumor” that if Trump gets elected, the 25th amendment is put into play and Vance is the new President?
Trump has had 3 episodes of particularly delusional and bizarre behavior. I have no words regarding the disco rally. His session with Bloomberg chief where he told him he was wrong. Blaming the war in Ukraine on Zelensky. Has any of this changed the numbers? Will it?
Any new thoughts on the Nebraska Senate race?
I agree with you that Harris needs to find a break from Biden - the Fox interview answer was a start but I'd think she needs to do more. Wouldn't it have made sense on the immigration question to say something like "when we arrive, we tried a more humane approach to immigration. In retrospect, it looks like it went to far and it drove people to the border. We tried to negotiate a solution and when that was blocked we used Executive Action to significantly reduce the flow. As President, I think we can do both."
That doesn't totally throw Biden under the bus but admits a mistake (most of electorate thinks it is already) so you acknowledge reality and come across more sincere/honest.
Chris, when I see attack ads on Trump, it seems the ads are not focused on the most egregious things I see Trump say or do. But I’m a political nobody that doesn’t know squat about effective campaigning. What about you - do you feel the ads against Trump use the right material based on your knowledge of Trump?
Thanks!
1. Can you reveal the results of your “scientific” (NOT!) poll in last week’s Mailbag? I’m guessing 95% KH
2. Can you (in the near future) write of some memorable experiences from your 1-1 Zoom paid-subscriber calls?
3. Can you (in the near future) write about your Georgetown students - their views, interests, talents, shortcomings?
Hi Chris,
Love the Sunday recommendations - great new feature. Do you think Democrats should be happy being in a toss up election with Donald Trump or should they be frustrated that Kamala Harris is not doing better? On the one hand Donald Trump seems eminently beatable given how crazy he is. On the other hand he has a large group of followers and the incumbent Democratic President is very unpopular. I guess I am asking if you think that a different Democratic candidate could be in a much better position than Harris is right now. Thanks!
Who was your favorite 1990’s pro wrestler?
Why does the media say misinformation instead of calling what is being said as a LIE?!!!
Hey Chris I was wondering about the "Hidden Harris" vote phenomenon where in this case Its Harris in 2024 outperforming her poll numbers rather than Trump who outperformed his numbers in both 2016 and 2020, do you believe that this could be true this year??
What do you think about the reporting that Republicans may be “gaming” the polling averages at 538 and RCP with 60 new polls in the last month that are Republican-paid-for? For example, 12 of 15 recent polls in PA are Republican-paid.
Simon Rosenberg (clearly a left-leaning partisan) and others identified this chicanery with the 2022 midterms and the supposed “red wave”. It worked *then*, as Democrats moved money OUT of races they felt they couldn’t win, based upon those poll averages, but the election results *proved* that they were tighter than thought, affecting the control of the House and the tightness of the Senate.
I’m wondering if we’re seeing the same thing now, with the MSM narrative that “the race is tightening for Trump”. What do you think, Chris?