Ranking the 10 Republicans most likely to win in 2024
The race is on!
This is the week that the 2024 race for the Republican presidential nomination began in earnest.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott got in on Monday and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is going to follow suit tonight on Twitter(!).
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said recently there is a 61% chance he gets in. (Weirdly specific but you do you!). Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie recently said he would make up his mind on the race “in the coming days.” Hell, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum looks like he is running!
That flurry of activity means it’s time to revisit my rankings of the 10 Republicans most likely to wind up as the party’s nominee in 2024. (My last rankings, from last month, are here.)
With the race getting into gear, I am going to start doing these rankings monthly now. Rankings can and will change! So if you don’t see your preferred candidate on the list — or they aren’t ranked as high as you think they should be —just wait a month. Stuff changes!
And you can always e-mail me your thoughts on these rankings at cillizzac@gmail.com. I’ll do my best to respond.
Asa Hutchinson: Hutchinson is in many ways the purest anti Trump candidate in the field. He’s got a long resume of service in the party — including two terms as governor of Arkansas. He’s got a calmness to him. And a competence. Unfortunately for Hutchinson, Republican voters appear entirely uninterested in those attributes these days.
Chris Sununu: The New Hampshire governor certainly seems like he wants to run. “I think I could do the job,” he told CNN when asked last month if he was going to run. Of course, serving as president is a very different thing than getting elected president. And on that front it’s very tough to see Sununu’s path. He’d have to win or place (behind Trump) in New Hampshire, and right now that seems like a long shot.
Chris Christie: To the extent Christie has a role in the 2024 race, it could be as a kamikaze candidate — crashing into Trump. Christie knows Trump back and forth from his time as governor of New Jersey and he has the demeanor to carry off a full frontal assault on the frontrunner. But Christie insists he isn’t interested in that sort of race. Which makes me think maybe he doesn’t ultimately run?
Mike Pence: Look. I’ve written recently about how I just don’t get Pence’s campaign. He is running as a throwback to Ronald Reagan but the problem is that the Republican party today is unrecognizable to the one Reagan ruled in the 80s. I get why Pence is running — his timing makes it so he has to. (He can’t be out of office for 8 years and then just suddenly run in 2028.) But, man, the warning signs are everywhere that his candidacy is a non-starter. I could see the current 5-7% of the vote he is getting nationally as his high water mark in the race.
Vivek Ramaswamy: After reading this piece by my friend Jonathan V. Last, I realized that I had been undervaluing Ramaswamy some. There’s a case to be made that a youthful outsider talking about the need for a new national identity could generate some interest in the Republican primary electorate. Do I see a path where Ramaswamy competes with the top two for the nomination? No. But I also can TOTALLY see a moment — probably in a debate — where Ramaswamy catches a little bit of fire and flirts with double digits in an early state.
Glenn Youngkin: If I thought the Virginia governor was a 50-50 or better shot at running, I think I would rank him #3 on this list. Youngkin is the VERY rare candidate who has successfully walked the fine line of courting both the GOP establishment and the Trump base. And if DeSantis falters, there would be a void in the race for someone with Youngkin’s profile. But, as I explained yesterday in this space, I don’t think he is all that serious about running. I think his lingering interest in the race is more about setting himself up for the future — whether that’s the veepstakes or the 2028 race.
Nikki Haley: Quick, when’s the last time you heard about Haley’s presidential campaign? If it’s been a while — and I suspect it has — that’s part of the problem for her. After what I thought was a VERY good announcement (bolstered by the Don Lemon controversy), Haley has gone quiet. That’s not to say that she isn’t doing anything; she continues to campaign in early states — spadework that might pay off down the line. But there’s just not a ton of buzz for her. The just-announced CNN town hall she is doing in Iowa next month may change that.
Tim Scott: Out of the second tier of candidates, I am the highest on Scott — for a few reasons. First of all, he’s got $22 million in the bank, which allows him to spend money (as he is in Iowa and New Hampshire on this ad) to get better known. Second, I think he’s one of the most naturally gifted communicators in the Republican party, who will wear well on the campaign trail and on the debate stage. Third, I do think there is a chunk of Republicans who will respond well to Scott’s relentlessly optimistic message — particularly as an antidote to Trump’s everything-is-going-to-hell mantra. Scott is still a long shot. But I like where he is positioned in the race.
Ron DeSantis: I think the pump is primed for a DeSantis comeback story. Weird decision to announce on Twitter aside, DeSantis is going to get largely favorable press for his announcement. And he is going to be be well funded; his main super PAC is estimating its budget at $200 million! DeSantis has two main hurdles in my mind: a) he needs a message that better differentiates him from Trump (Trumpism with Trump ain’t cutting it) and b) he needs to shake the “he’s weird” thing. Maybe easier said than done.
Donald Trump: He’s not unbeatable. I think there is a real chance Trump loses Iowa (as he did in 2016). And, if that comes to pass, it could fuel a more competitive race — although that’s still a race where Trump would be favored. One under-covered aspect of Trump’s campaign: He now has serious political professionals (Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles) at the top of his organization. That’s a major change from 2016 and even 2020.
It's Trump's race to lose. Period.
With the possible exceptiosn of Sununu and Christie, these are ALL extreme right candidates with their rhetoric about the "far left" and "woke policies" and "defund the police," etc.