Republicans are headed for a brutal week

ISO: A Speaker

(Former — and future? — House Speaker Kevin McCarthy)

If you listened closely to the coverage over the long holiday weekend, you could distinctly make out this fact: Republicans don’t have a clue about who the next Speaker of the House will be.

Ohio Rep. David Joyce admitted as much after a closed-door meeting of the House Republican conference on Monday night, telling reporters that his party is no “closer or farther” from picking their next leader.

And there’s this from Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman on Monday:

Add to that uncertainty this: Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reversed course on his pledge last week that he would not serve as Speaker again.

Asked directly whether he would serve again, McCarthy said “that’s a decision for the conference.” Which isn’t “no!”

At least two Republicans — Carlos Gimenez of Florida and John Duarte of California — have said they will only vote fort McCarthy for Speaker.

“The only workable outcome is to restore Kevin McCarthy as Speaker under party rules that respect and enforce the right of the majority party to elect him,” said California Rep. Tom McClintock.

The truth, that no one in the Republican party is willing to say out loud, is that they have NO idea where this is headed or when it will get there.

Ostensibly, the schedule will unfold this way: There will be a candidate forum today and then Republicans will choose their Speaker nominee (that person will have to win a simple majority of the full House) on Wednesday.

But, there is no honest Republican out there who can predict that they will be able to adhere to that calendar. In fact, going into this week, there is still an active debate over whether the Speaker nominee needs to win only a majority of the Republican conference or show that he can win 218 votes — so as to avoid any (further) drama on the House floor.

The reality here is that not much has changed — in the Republican conference — from the cluster that was last week’s removal of McCarthy by a rump group of 8 Republicans.

There’s no sign that Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (or any of the other 7 Republicans who voted to vacate the Speaker) are wavering in their feelings about McCarthy. Which makes a return to the top of the House very unlikely for him.

But, the two men who have stepped forward as replacements — Jordan and Scalise — have their own issues.

Both men hail from the conservative wing of the party — and there are real concerns that either man understands or will look out for the moderate voices in the conference who are where the majority is won (and lost).

Overarching this decidedly Washington debate is the attacks over the weekend against Israel by Hamas. That international crisis brought the House’s paralysis into very clear focus — as the chamber was unable to do anything (even a proclamation of support for Israel) in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.

The situation in Israel has led some House Republicans to insist that the party has to move quickly to pick a Speaker so that it can begin helping out an American ally.

“Given the situation in the Middle East with one of our closest allies in the world, it is critical that we bring this to a close expeditiously,” New York Rep. Mike Lawler said on CNN over the weekend. “I think it is imperative, frankly, that this nonsense stop.”

Which is probably true! But, Lawler’s sentiment doesn’t change the basic math problem that confronts House Republicans.

Right now, there is no one in the House GOP who can secure 218 votes on the House floor. Not McCarthy. Not Scalise. Not Jordan.

Could the next 24 hours change that equation? Maybe, but I am very skeptical. The problems we saw on display last week remain. And there is no easy solution to them. Simply wanting to find a new Speaker quickly certainly doesn’t solve them.

I could easily see the Republican Speaker race continue beyond this week. In fact, I would be somewhat surprised if it didn’t.