Ron DeSantis isn't scaring anybody

The presidential race just keep getting more crowded.

(Ron DeSantis/ Getty Images)

On Thursday, the New York Times reported that Florida Sen. Rick Scott is now considering a late-entrance bid into the 2024 Republican presidential race.

From the Times piece:

“Like other recent entries, Mr. Scott appears to be assessing a G.O.P. field in which Mr. DeSantis, with whom Mr. Scott has had a difficult relationship, has lost some support after a series of missteps and unforced errors.”

Scott would be the 6th candidate to get into the race AFTER DeSantis announced his candidacy — on May 24 — and would present the most glaring evidence yet that the Florida governor has failed to seize the momentum in the race and that other candidates now see opportunity in his failure.

In short: They smell blood in the water.

Let’s consider DeSantis for a minute. His campaign launch was an unmitigated disaster. And while his campaign tried to spin that he had broken the Internet, well, um, no.

In fact, a look at polling before, during and after the DeSantis announcement suggests he got zero bump or momentum from it — a massive swing and a miss. (Remember he announced on May 24.)

DeSantis was in the low 20s when he got into the race and, now, a month later is still in the low 20s.

He is still running 30-ish points behind Trump and is now closer to the back of the pack — all of whom are clocking single digits — than he is to the frontrunner.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan predicted total doom for DeSantis earlier this week.

“He’s dropped like a rock,” Hogan told CBS’ Major Garrett of DeSantis. Added Hogan: “I think it’s getting close to being over.”

Trump himself sounded a similar note in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier.

“I mean, at some place, he could be replaced,” said Trump of DeSantis. “The way he's going right now, he's dropping like a rock. He could be number three, number four, and you won't ever hear me talking about him again.”

I’m less pessimistic about DeSantis than that. He still is clearly in 2nd place — and holding. He (and his allied super PAC) still have a lot of money to spend getting him better known in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. And, as I wrote earlier this week, there is some evidence emerging that Trump is weakening — albeit slightly.

But, DeSantis is already at something of a pivot point in the race. He’s been actively running for a month now. His numbers aren’t appreciably better anywhere — either nationally or in early voting states.

And, after a brief flurry of attacks against Trump, DeSantis has gone quiet (or quieter). (It’s likely he’s spending most of his time right now raising money before the June 30 end of the financial quarter.)

He’s also battling the ghost of Scott Walker. Walker was, like DeSantis, a conservative darling from his work as governor of his state. When he entered the 2016 presidential race, he was touted as one of its frontrunners.

Three and a half months later, he was out of the race entirely — following a series of underwhelming debate performances and, subsequently, a withered fundraising operation.

The lesson? These things can go south quickly. Like Walker, DeSantis has a BIG operation — both nationally and in early states. That costs money — lots of it.

And, like Walker, DeSantis entered the race with sky-high expectations. He was widely touted as the clear alternative to Trump, the one person around whom those who didn’t want the former president back as their party’s nominee would rally.

Consider this analogy, which a Republican consultant told me years ago. Let’s say you are launching a new brand of dog food. You hire best-in-class marketers and sales people to promote the crap out of the product. But, there’s just one problem: Actual dogs don’t like the dog food. In that circumstance, it doesn’t matter how stellar the marketing and sales campaigns are. The product just won’t sell.

Again, I am not totally there yet with DeSantis. (He’s the dog food in that analogy in case you were wondering.) There’s no question that his launch and first month in the race have been, um, less than impressive. But I DO think that DeSantis has until the first debate — in August — to turn things around.

If he bombs in that debate — or, really, even if he is only ok — I think the whispers you are hearing now about him and his campaign turn into shouts. And I don’t know whether DeSantis can withstand that sort of all-out assault on his candidacy.

What’s already clear — as proven by Scott’s interest — is that DeSantis is no longer scaring anyone out of this race. The idea that this is a two-man contest between he and Trump has taken a major hit — and everyone sees it.

I still think DeSantis — by dint of his name recognition, money and Florida record — is best positioned to be the main Trump alternative in the race. But that position is far weaker than it was even two months ago. And if DeSantis is in the same place two months from now that he is today, he will have lost his preferred spot entirely.