Thanks, Chris, for this helpful analysis! My immediate takeaways are that it is amazing that the country is so polarized that a candidate as awful as Trump could even be in the running, let alone a slight favorite to win. And this is after his four years in office, all that preceded that and what he has very transparently threatened since he left office. As scary as it is to contemplate a second Trump term, it is just as scary, and disappointing, to think how many Americans have seen his act and approve of it. Trumpism is a real disease that will take a long time to get out of the country's system. I hope the country can survive the election of 2024 and the aftermath of Trump and Trumpism
It's fairly simple. What's left in Rural America are the people who cannot successfully compete with Blue America, primarily due to lack of education. The hollowing-out of Rural America and the loss of success opportunities for those there has created two different countries. These are people who never particularly thought about things like "white privilege" and didn't think they were so "privileged" anyway, who now find that a high school education or less and the accident of being born White are no longer a ticket to a job that will support a family, and certainly no regular employment (what's that?) on which to plan a future. They feel that has been stolen from them and they're not entirely wrong with it comes to the economic hollowing-out that came from NAFTA and such. My ex-wife's kids (not mine) all managed to drop out of high school (my one regret about us not staying together; I think I could have bribed them to stick it out), and all three now live in Rural America where they live the life that comes from the Rural "gig economy" (like the urban "gig economy," only worse), and they're angry at what they have. Yes, what they have is the result of a major Poor Choice they made, but that argument will not change minds (I tried).
And while Rural America lost 52% of its population in the aughts, due to the electoral college and the system of federal representation where Wyoming, with not the population of the San Fernando Valley here in California, gets two Senators just like we do (the Republicans in the Senate, who primarily represent rural states, represent around 40% of the national population but they are close to 50% of the Senate). So the people who live there have a way of getting back at Lib'rul America that hollowed-out their economy and mostly looks down on them.
I once had the opportunity as a historian to talk with a former high-ranking German officer whose role had put him in close contact with Hitler through the war (he wasn't a Nazi; it was the result of being the guy trying to fight the air war against the 8th Air Force). I finally asked him, "what was it about Hitler that he could do what he did?" And he replied "He expressed the complaints of the people who believed they were harmed." Sound familiar?
Very well said. I agree that the country seems like 2 countries at this point in time. Changing that is not something that politicians seem likely to work on.
The way Trump plays the system to delay judgments against him makes the upcoming trials irrelevant. A Biden win is likely the only way we will even get a trial, at least on the federal charges.
One comment re "a fall." Trump's old & could have a fall too, or some other visible age-related incident that would quickly raise questions. Biden's not the only one has to worry about this.
i think voters should hold RFK-Jr accountable and ask him to identify the chemicals being put into local water that turns boys into transgender women. i would also ask the GOP voters why congress has not investigated the [so-called] 2020 election fraud.
Seriously, it would take a conviction in a court of law for some voters to move from Trump to Biden? Good grief. Who do these voters think will work for Trump in his next administration if he gets elected? The top cabinet posts will likely go to some combination of sycophants like Steve Bannon, Stephen Miller and Roger Stone. The U.S. will be a laughingstock.
Chris, Happy New Year to you and your family. Enjoy the extra time off with your boys, too. This is all where my head is at the moment, I agree with your thoughts. However, I am totally perplexed as to how this is all playing out. I do not believe Trump should be on the ballot to begin with, so there’s that. What totally puzzles me is the fact that enough people will potentially vote for him AGAIN. This will be horrific and can’t fathom the repercussions of Trump winning.
Christie isn't going to drop out and back Haley because she is the Perfect Example of why he is running. He's not going to give Trump victory twice. His whole campaign is to truth-bomb Trump up until the convention and then to go out and speak against him during the fall campaign.
Haley's whole plan is to avoid pissing off Trump so she can submit to him after new Hampshire in hopes of being named VP. She's the OPPOSITE of Christie. She's nakedly hypocritical and anyone who thinks she is a "moderate" is a FUCKING DROOLING POLITICALLY-ILLITERATE MORON, to use the proper technical term. She has NEVER been a moderate. She has always been a creature of the Right.
Karen Tumulty of the WP wrote an article today titled "Is this who we are?" Short read but scary. That's really the reality of where we are now. If people, knowing what they know about Trump and despite it all, vote him in for president, then that is EXACTLY who we are now. I can only hope, as you wrote, that voters will become more engaged further along and see the cliff in front of them.
If you haven’t read already, I recommend the Jan/Feb issue of The Atlantic, essays on what a Trump reelection would look like. And on your point, Susan, Mark Leibovich’s end piece on America’s Character. “This IS who we are”
Hi Chris. Happy New Year and New Year's week to you and your family. Please carve out and preserve time with your family even though 2024 will be a momentous election year. Is there any reliable polling about unaffiliated voters in NH? % of likely primary voters and for which candidates? There's no Democratic party. Unaffiliated voters can vote in the GOP Primary and outnumber GOP voters @349,000 to 269,000. Deviating from IA Caucus resukts is normal for NH Primary voters who are more like General Election voters in political inclinations. A surprise whupping of Trump by them in NH is the only potential scenario that I foresee altering a Trump coronation by GOP voters, energizing Democratic base voters' enthusiasm and motivation to support Biden and freaking out Independent voters to prevent a 2nd Trump term. https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
Even if you believe the phony polls all over the place, Biden is going to win in November. I don't place any significant stock in all these polls because they use it to tell us the story they want. Take for example, the latest Fox News polls that included 48% Republicans and 44% of Democrats and 8% Independents. Sure, that's not the breakdown of the electorate. So how can you believe that type of as being representative of the general electorate. Biden is going to win in November
Two words in your newsletter have me confused, as if they belong in the same sentence; Conviction and Winning. "...what happens to Trump’s numbers if he is convicted in a court of law. And the available data suggests that a conviction could have a serious — and seriously negative — impact on Trump’s chances of winning."
This is really a spot on analysis, thank you! In summary, there is a disaffected group of lower middle class rural, mostly white, people, who have felt left out, and angry by the increasing divide between the haves and have nots in the country. The old Republican Party would not seek to do anything about that; their policies would tend to exacerbate the gap. The Democrats do seek to address poverty but although their policies do help all poor people, some of their policies are more visibly focused on also reducing historic racism as well. Which is absolutely the right thing to do! It is a shame , in hindsight, that the Democrats were/are not more successful in showing that their policies would help all poor people, and thereby avoid the disaffection of rural America. I think it was more about "poor marketing" than "poor policy" At any rate, as TCin LA rightly notes, this left the door wide open for someone like Trump who could claim to be the only person who saw and cared about their plight. Just like William Jennings Bryan before him. Even though Trump is wealthy, unlike Bryan, and never cared for the poor before, unlike Bryan, Rural America sees him as their only advocate. Similar to how fundamental Christians see Trump as a person who fights abortion, even though he has questionable moral character. History will look back on this period of time and wonder how a person like Trump was able to pull off the greatest con job in our history. And the answer would be, as TCinLA, said, because there was a tremendous vacuum created by our shortsighted economic policies that opened the door for a person like Trump. I hope that our nation can pull back from the abyss, and not only defeat Trump but address the causes of the disease that has bred Trumpism
As for this week being a little light with the kids home, I just realized that I hear lots of talk about women needing "me time" and to be sure and get plenty of "self-care", but men also need "me time" and "self-care". Enjoy your time with the kids!
President Biden has done a terrific job, and deserves support. If we whinge about his age, and prop up a gaggle of Robert eff Kennedys and Dean Phillipses or squander write-in votes yearning after others, allowing Donald J Trump a second term in office,then we will deserve it. Come on, man. If everyone horrified by the prospect of Trump 2.0 will untie against him, we win. 2024 is not the year to dither. Dithering gets us Donald.
Can't argue with any of the objective indicia you cite, but the fact remains that Iowa and NH have often produced surprising results. If that happens this time, the path forward becomes less clear. Separately, it remains beyond sad that Trump has any traction, much less that he is - at present- a slight favorite to win. Beyond his manifest character flaws, his record is pathetic. All he passed were tax cuts for the wealthy, which ballooned the deficit. No wall. No check from Mexico. No infrastructure plan. No great new healthcare plan. He has been a fraud his entire professional life. No informed, rational person can support him.
Thanks, Chris, for this helpful analysis! My immediate takeaways are that it is amazing that the country is so polarized that a candidate as awful as Trump could even be in the running, let alone a slight favorite to win. And this is after his four years in office, all that preceded that and what he has very transparently threatened since he left office. As scary as it is to contemplate a second Trump term, it is just as scary, and disappointing, to think how many Americans have seen his act and approve of it. Trumpism is a real disease that will take a long time to get out of the country's system. I hope the country can survive the election of 2024 and the aftermath of Trump and Trumpism
It's fairly simple. What's left in Rural America are the people who cannot successfully compete with Blue America, primarily due to lack of education. The hollowing-out of Rural America and the loss of success opportunities for those there has created two different countries. These are people who never particularly thought about things like "white privilege" and didn't think they were so "privileged" anyway, who now find that a high school education or less and the accident of being born White are no longer a ticket to a job that will support a family, and certainly no regular employment (what's that?) on which to plan a future. They feel that has been stolen from them and they're not entirely wrong with it comes to the economic hollowing-out that came from NAFTA and such. My ex-wife's kids (not mine) all managed to drop out of high school (my one regret about us not staying together; I think I could have bribed them to stick it out), and all three now live in Rural America where they live the life that comes from the Rural "gig economy" (like the urban "gig economy," only worse), and they're angry at what they have. Yes, what they have is the result of a major Poor Choice they made, but that argument will not change minds (I tried).
And while Rural America lost 52% of its population in the aughts, due to the electoral college and the system of federal representation where Wyoming, with not the population of the San Fernando Valley here in California, gets two Senators just like we do (the Republicans in the Senate, who primarily represent rural states, represent around 40% of the national population but they are close to 50% of the Senate). So the people who live there have a way of getting back at Lib'rul America that hollowed-out their economy and mostly looks down on them.
I once had the opportunity as a historian to talk with a former high-ranking German officer whose role had put him in close contact with Hitler through the war (he wasn't a Nazi; it was the result of being the guy trying to fight the air war against the 8th Air Force). I finally asked him, "what was it about Hitler that he could do what he did?" And he replied "He expressed the complaints of the people who believed they were harmed." Sound familiar?
Very well said. I agree that the country seems like 2 countries at this point in time. Changing that is not something that politicians seem likely to work on.
Re #2, stop harping about Biden’s age. It’s not a secret and it might be helpful if people would stop bringing it up every five seconds.
The way Trump plays the system to delay judgments against him makes the upcoming trials irrelevant. A Biden win is likely the only way we will even get a trial, at least on the federal charges.
One comment re "a fall." Trump's old & could have a fall too, or some other visible age-related incident that would quickly raise questions. Biden's not the only one has to worry about this.
i think voters should hold RFK-Jr accountable and ask him to identify the chemicals being put into local water that turns boys into transgender women. i would also ask the GOP voters why congress has not investigated the [so-called] 2020 election fraud.
Seriously, it would take a conviction in a court of law for some voters to move from Trump to Biden? Good grief. Who do these voters think will work for Trump in his next administration if he gets elected? The top cabinet posts will likely go to some combination of sycophants like Steve Bannon, Stephen Miller and Roger Stone. The U.S. will be a laughingstock.
Chris, Happy New Year to you and your family. Enjoy the extra time off with your boys, too. This is all where my head is at the moment, I agree with your thoughts. However, I am totally perplexed as to how this is all playing out. I do not believe Trump should be on the ballot to begin with, so there’s that. What totally puzzles me is the fact that enough people will potentially vote for him AGAIN. This will be horrific and can’t fathom the repercussions of Trump winning.
Christie isn't going to drop out and back Haley because she is the Perfect Example of why he is running. He's not going to give Trump victory twice. His whole campaign is to truth-bomb Trump up until the convention and then to go out and speak against him during the fall campaign.
Haley's whole plan is to avoid pissing off Trump so she can submit to him after new Hampshire in hopes of being named VP. She's the OPPOSITE of Christie. She's nakedly hypocritical and anyone who thinks she is a "moderate" is a FUCKING DROOLING POLITICALLY-ILLITERATE MORON, to use the proper technical term. She has NEVER been a moderate. She has always been a creature of the Right.
Karen Tumulty of the WP wrote an article today titled "Is this who we are?" Short read but scary. That's really the reality of where we are now. If people, knowing what they know about Trump and despite it all, vote him in for president, then that is EXACTLY who we are now. I can only hope, as you wrote, that voters will become more engaged further along and see the cliff in front of them.
If you haven’t read already, I recommend the Jan/Feb issue of The Atlantic, essays on what a Trump reelection would look like. And on your point, Susan, Mark Leibovich’s end piece on America’s Character. “This IS who we are”
Thank you. I'll have to look those up. I hate to keep feeding into my fears, though. Being a democrat, I'm already considering being an expat. lol
Hi Chris. Happy New Year and New Year's week to you and your family. Please carve out and preserve time with your family even though 2024 will be a momentous election year. Is there any reliable polling about unaffiliated voters in NH? % of likely primary voters and for which candidates? There's no Democratic party. Unaffiliated voters can vote in the GOP Primary and outnumber GOP voters @349,000 to 269,000. Deviating from IA Caucus resukts is normal for NH Primary voters who are more like General Election voters in political inclinations. A surprise whupping of Trump by them in NH is the only potential scenario that I foresee altering a Trump coronation by GOP voters, energizing Democratic base voters' enthusiasm and motivation to support Biden and freaking out Independent voters to prevent a 2nd Trump term. https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
Even if you believe the phony polls all over the place, Biden is going to win in November. I don't place any significant stock in all these polls because they use it to tell us the story they want. Take for example, the latest Fox News polls that included 48% Republicans and 44% of Democrats and 8% Independents. Sure, that's not the breakdown of the electorate. So how can you believe that type of as being representative of the general electorate. Biden is going to win in November
Two words in your newsletter have me confused, as if they belong in the same sentence; Conviction and Winning. "...what happens to Trump’s numbers if he is convicted in a court of law. And the available data suggests that a conviction could have a serious — and seriously negative — impact on Trump’s chances of winning."
How does THAT work?
This is really a spot on analysis, thank you! In summary, there is a disaffected group of lower middle class rural, mostly white, people, who have felt left out, and angry by the increasing divide between the haves and have nots in the country. The old Republican Party would not seek to do anything about that; their policies would tend to exacerbate the gap. The Democrats do seek to address poverty but although their policies do help all poor people, some of their policies are more visibly focused on also reducing historic racism as well. Which is absolutely the right thing to do! It is a shame , in hindsight, that the Democrats were/are not more successful in showing that their policies would help all poor people, and thereby avoid the disaffection of rural America. I think it was more about "poor marketing" than "poor policy" At any rate, as TCin LA rightly notes, this left the door wide open for someone like Trump who could claim to be the only person who saw and cared about their plight. Just like William Jennings Bryan before him. Even though Trump is wealthy, unlike Bryan, and never cared for the poor before, unlike Bryan, Rural America sees him as their only advocate. Similar to how fundamental Christians see Trump as a person who fights abortion, even though he has questionable moral character. History will look back on this period of time and wonder how a person like Trump was able to pull off the greatest con job in our history. And the answer would be, as TCinLA, said, because there was a tremendous vacuum created by our shortsighted economic policies that opened the door for a person like Trump. I hope that our nation can pull back from the abyss, and not only defeat Trump but address the causes of the disease that has bred Trumpism
As for this week being a little light with the kids home, I just realized that I hear lots of talk about women needing "me time" and to be sure and get plenty of "self-care", but men also need "me time" and "self-care". Enjoy your time with the kids!
President Biden has done a terrific job, and deserves support. If we whinge about his age, and prop up a gaggle of Robert eff Kennedys and Dean Phillipses or squander write-in votes yearning after others, allowing Donald J Trump a second term in office,then we will deserve it. Come on, man. If everyone horrified by the prospect of Trump 2.0 will untie against him, we win. 2024 is not the year to dither. Dithering gets us Donald.
Can't argue with any of the objective indicia you cite, but the fact remains that Iowa and NH have often produced surprising results. If that happens this time, the path forward becomes less clear. Separately, it remains beyond sad that Trump has any traction, much less that he is - at present- a slight favorite to win. Beyond his manifest character flaws, his record is pathetic. All he passed were tax cuts for the wealthy, which ballooned the deficit. No wall. No check from Mexico. No infrastructure plan. No great new healthcare plan. He has been a fraud his entire professional life. No informed, rational person can support him.