The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024

Ranked!

(Sen. Joe Manchin)

It’s been a busy week on the Senate race front.

Consider:

• West Virginia Republican Gov. Jim Justice is in against Sen. Joe Manchin (D).

• Texas Rep. Colin Allred is running against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz

• Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin is retiring

• Election denier Jim Marchant is running in Nevada against Sen. Jacky Rosen.

• Kari Lake appears to be moving closer to an Arizona Senate candidacy

With so much happening, I thought now would be a good time to revisit my initial January rankings of the 10 Senate seats most likely to switch parties in November 2024.

The map remains HEAVILY tilted in Republicans favor. Only two of the 10 seats in my rankings are currently held by a Republican.

Let’s do this!

10. Florida (Republican held): Florida Sen. Rick Scott is always in close races. In 2018, he beat incumbent Bill Nelson by just 10,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast. He had similarly close margins when he ran and was reelected as governor. But, close races or not. Scott always manages to wind up on top. The question for Democrats is whether Florida’s heavy Republican move in 2022 was an exception or the new political rule in the state. If the former, then there is a case to be made that with the right candidate — former Rep. Stephanie Murphy, perhaps — this could be a real race especially when you consider the negative press Scott took for his proposal to sunset Medicare and Social Security.

9. Texas (R): Allred’s candidacy gives Democrats a major boost in their efforts to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz. And Allred has already made a mark, raising $2 million in just the first 36 hours of his candidacy. Cruz’s close call against Beto O’Rourke in 2018 — he won by just 3 points — suggests that there is a significant number of voters willing to consider an alternative to the incumbent. The question, as always in Texas, is whether that voting bloc equals 50% of the vote.

8. Wisconsin (Democratic-held): Like Pennsylvania — more on that below — Wisconsin seems headed to swing state status in the 2024 presidential race. Sen. Tammy Baldwin formally announced her campaign last month — removing any lingering doubts among Democrats that she might not run — and has always run well funded and credible campaigns. The big problem for Republicans is they don’t have anyone stepping up just yet to take Baldwin on. Rep. Mike Gallagher is the consensus choice but a) it’s not clear he wants to run and b) his past criticism of Donald Trump could be a problem for him in a primary setting.

7. Pennsylvania (D): The Keystone State is likely to be one of the most hotly contested at the presidential level in 2024. It still remains to be seen, however, if Republicans can put a real scare into Sen. Bob Casey Jr.. National Republicans are hoping 2022 Senate candidate (and wealthy businessman) Dave McCormick makes another bid — and he does sounds like a candidate. “I want to try to find a way to serve,” he said recently. The nightmare scenario for Republicans is that Doug Mastriano, an election denier who was crushed by Gov. Josh Shapiro in 2022, decides to run. (Mastriano has said he has already made up his mind but has not revealed it publicly.) Mastriano would have a decent chance of winning a primary and no chance of winning the general election. A recent independent poll in the race showed Casey beating McCormick by single digits and Mastriano by 16 points.

6. Michigan (OPEN-D): While open seat races are always more perilous for the party who holds them than if an incumbent runs, the Michigan contest is turning into a best case scenario for Democrats. Rep. Elissa Slotkin got in early and quickly cleared the field — a remarkable political achievement given how rarely Senate seats become available. The Republican race, meanwhile, is entirely unformed — with many party strategists wondering how Kristina Karamo, a prominent election denier and the new state party chair, will handle her duties. Among the Republicans mentioned include former Rep. Peter Meijer, Rep. Lisa McClain and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon.

5. Nevada (D): The best news for Democrats in a while in Nevada came this week with former Secretary of State candidate Jim Marchant announcing his candidacy. Marchant has lost several bids for office over the last few years and is, quite clearly, outside of the mainstream in Nevada politics. Rosen could barely hide her joy in welcoming Marchant to the race; “While far-right politicians like Jim Marchant spread baseless conspiracy theories, I’ve always focused on solving problems for Nevadans,” she said. Marchant’s candidacy poses a major problem for national Republicans since his alignment with Donald Trump and the baseless 2020 election conspiracy makes him potentially appealing in a GOP primary and likely unelectable in a general election.

4. Arizona (Independent): As if this race couldn’t get any more unpredictable, Kari Lake, the failed 2022 gubernatorial nominee, now appears ready to run on the Republican side. Lake would be the clear favorite in the GOP primary although Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already running and others could still join the race. Rep. Ruben Gallego looks like the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination. Which means it’s all eyes on Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic party earlier this year, and is now an independent. Two national profiles of the senator — one in the New York Times and one in The Atlantic — seemed to draw opposite conclusions of whether she will run again. Sinema isn’t saying.

3. Ohio (D): There’s already a solid and credible Republican field running for the chance to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown next November. Wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno jumped into the race last month, joining wealthy state Sen. Matt Dolan. Unlike the 2022 race, there’s no obvious Trump candidate running — at least not yet. But, that last race is instructive; JD Vance was a flawed first time candidate but still managed to beat Rep. Tim Ryan, who, by all accounts, ran something close to a perfect race. Ohio is more Republican today than at any point since Brown has been running for the Senate. This will be his toughest challenge.

2. Montana (D): I debated moving Ohio into this slot since the field of Republican candidates is more fully formed there than it is in Montana. But, I just couldn’t get past the fact that Donald Trump won Montana by 16 points in 2020 — and is likely to repeat that performance again in 2024. National Republicans clearly do NOT want Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Sen. Jon Tester in 2018, as their nominee. But, they have yet to settle on an alternative candidate. Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman, appears to be the choice but he has yet to utter a peep about the race.

1. West Virginia (D): Even before Justice got into the race, Manchin was in deep trouble given the strong Republican tilt of the state and the fact that he is running in a presidential year. The entrance of the popular Justice further complicates Manchin’s path although it’s not a sure thing that the governor winds up as the Republican nominee. (Rep. Alex Mooney is running to Justice’s ideological right and has the backing of the Club for Growth.). Manchin still hasn’t said whether he will run, retire or run for president as a 3rd party candidate. At the moment, running for reelection might be the diciest of those three propositions. (Previous ranking: 1)