Lots written about polls and past result in elections, but little of that matters now. The fact that you (Chris Z) have many years of experience in political reporting and that does not matter now. 538 would agree with me if they were truthful . This is not the age of normal. This is the age of Trump. Is anyone here a Science Fiction fan? If you have read the Foundation Trilogy there is a character who became the Emperor known as "The Mule" He came out of nowhere and he broke the Seldon Plan for the future of the Galactic Empire. Trump is trying to do that with Democracy. He wants to break it. Trump is kinda like the Mule, and he will go away just like the Mule did in the story. The great weight of historical norms (or the Seldon Plan) will steer Democracy (or the Galactic Empire) back on course. The Mule was maybe so named as he could have no children, and Trump has kinda also done that, at least he had none that are in any way viable. I can kinda understand Trump's not so anti-abortion stance when looking at the fruit of his loins. And he also looks like a mutant, but he sure is no acrobat like the Mule was. :-) I just had a vision of Trump as an acrobat and it is more effective then Ozempic.
I think that Allred (odd name for a blue candidate) might have the moderate magic to win a statewide race. You cannot gerrymander a whole state. Abbot and Cruz are pandering to the national Republican primary voters in a way that I think is losing some moderate Republican voters here in Texas. Major anti-gun Beto almost won and Allred has none of that baggage. I sure hope Cancun Cruz goes down. I froze my ass off for four days and had no heat, Surly they could have had rolling blackouts instead of punishing the blue parts of the state and leaving them completely without power for three or four days in a row.. And killing about 600 people in the process. That is the excess mortality rate in the affected areas. That is the lower end of the mortality rate. Even in Houston, the Dem leaning parts of town were the last to get electricity back. Politics is actually killing many Democratic Texans. Wrong party so you must die. I read many stories about people who lost their frozen food or infant formula and went hungry because the fridge was not working. It was 5 degrees outside, why did you not put your food outside?
Districts in the race, crack and pack, do not look at the cracks. look at the packs. That will show gerrymandering much more that the cracks. Every district is 55% Reps but two districts are 90%+ Dems.
I just want to say how much I love columns like this, maybe it can be a monthly thing? Would also love to know which districts you think could flip in 24. Same with governor races. Sorry to pile more work on a Friday!
Like your articles.
Thank you very much.
Lots written about polls and past result in elections, but little of that matters now. The fact that you (Chris Z) have many years of experience in political reporting and that does not matter now. 538 would agree with me if they were truthful . This is not the age of normal. This is the age of Trump. Is anyone here a Science Fiction fan? If you have read the Foundation Trilogy there is a character who became the Emperor known as "The Mule" He came out of nowhere and he broke the Seldon Plan for the future of the Galactic Empire. Trump is trying to do that with Democracy. He wants to break it. Trump is kinda like the Mule, and he will go away just like the Mule did in the story. The great weight of historical norms (or the Seldon Plan) will steer Democracy (or the Galactic Empire) back on course. The Mule was maybe so named as he could have no children, and Trump has kinda also done that, at least he had none that are in any way viable. I can kinda understand Trump's not so anti-abortion stance when looking at the fruit of his loins. And he also looks like a mutant, but he sure is no acrobat like the Mule was. :-) I just had a vision of Trump as an acrobat and it is more effective then Ozempic.
I think that Allred (odd name for a blue candidate) might have the moderate magic to win a statewide race. You cannot gerrymander a whole state. Abbot and Cruz are pandering to the national Republican primary voters in a way that I think is losing some moderate Republican voters here in Texas. Major anti-gun Beto almost won and Allred has none of that baggage. I sure hope Cancun Cruz goes down. I froze my ass off for four days and had no heat, Surly they could have had rolling blackouts instead of punishing the blue parts of the state and leaving them completely without power for three or four days in a row.. And killing about 600 people in the process. That is the excess mortality rate in the affected areas. That is the lower end of the mortality rate. Even in Houston, the Dem leaning parts of town were the last to get electricity back. Politics is actually killing many Democratic Texans. Wrong party so you must die. I read many stories about people who lost their frozen food or infant formula and went hungry because the fridge was not working. It was 5 degrees outside, why did you not put your food outside?
Districts in the race, crack and pack, do not look at the cracks. look at the packs. That will show gerrymandering much more that the cracks. Every district is 55% Reps but two districts are 90%+ Dems.
Bottom line: Holding the Senate will be just about impossible for the Democrats in 2024, no matter what happens at the top of the ticket.
When I was a kid, 100% of the Senate Majority was Republican and 100% of the House Majority was democrats. That was before gerrymandering was a thing.
Thanks Chris. Good material on these Senate races. Just signed up for the $5/month plan.
I just want to say how much I love columns like this, maybe it can be a monthly thing? Would also love to know which districts you think could flip in 24. Same with governor races. Sorry to pile more work on a Friday!