The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024, ranked

The June rankings are here!

(The 2024 Senate map)

The Senate playing field is in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment as we wait on two go/no go decisions from incumbents.

The first is in Arizona where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who changed her party affiliation to independent late last year, has yet to decide whether she will run for another term in 2024.

There are decidedly mixed signals on that front. A Wall Street Journal profile of Sinema in April suggested that she is “preparing for a re-election campaign.” An Atlantic profile published later that month said that Sinema “talks like someone who’s not planning” on running again.

Sinema did raise better than $2 million in the first three months of 2024, suggesting, at minimum, that she is keeping her options open.

The second is in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin remains genuinely undecided about running again, according to Democrats I spoke to who know the man.

And, don’t expect to find out Manchin’s decision any time soon. He said recently he won’t make up his mind until the end of 2023 — shortly ahead of the January 2024 filing deadline in the state.

Neither Manchin nor Sinema are a sure thing to win even if they run. In fact, both probably have less than a 50-50 shot at victory. (That coin flip is likely at least part of their calculations as to whether they run again.)

But, both of their decisions will have a profound impact on the 2024 playing field. If Manchin is out in West Virginia, the seat is a mortal lock for Republicans. If Sinema doesn’t run in Arizona, the race gets much more simple — Democrat Ruben Gallego against whoever Republicans nominate (although that is an interesting question too…)

Below you’ll find my rankings of the 10 Senate seats most likely to change parties next year. The playing field continues to be heavily tilted toward Republicans as Democrats are playing defense across the country. You can see my last rankings — from last month — here!

10. Florida (Republican held): I don’t think Florida is as Republican as Gov. Ron DeSantis’ sweeping victory in 2022 might suggest. But neither is it anything close to the swing state that it was circa 2000. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in the state since 2012 and the 2022 election was an utter debacle that will take them some time from which to recover. As NBC noted last month, the Democratic field has yet to form — and it’s not clear whether a true top-tier recruit will take on the challenge of running against Scott.

9. Wisconsin (Democratic-held): Republican chances against Sen. Tammy Baldwin suffered a major hit late last week when Rep. Mike Gallagher took himself out of the running. (He was always a long shot to run anyway.) Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke is contemplating a bid — and while he would have support from the MAGA wing of the Republican party, it’s very hard to see him winning a general election in a swing state. Baldwin is an able and effective campaigner — and looks likely to win another term in 2024.

8. Texas (R): In Rep. Colin Allred, Democrats have a serious and credible contender against Sen. Ted Cruz. And it is worth noting that the last time Cruz was up for reelection — in 2018 — he came within 3 points of losing to then Rep. Beto O’Rourke. I am still skeptical that the math adds up for a Democratic win in Texas but in a presidential election year, Democratic turnout should be through the roof. This seat is still a bit of a long shot for Democrats but Allred gives them hope.

7. Michigan (OPEN-D): Open seats are always more endangered than when an incumbent runs. That said, this race looks very good for Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who got into the race early and watched as her main rivals for the Democratic nomination all decided against running. Two Republicans — one a former Democrat — jumped into the open seat race last month but neither seem overly serious. Michigan, like its Midwest brethren, should be competitive at the presidential level next fall. But, at least at the moment, this race looks like a walk-over for Slotkin.

6. Nevada (D): Republicans may well have a candidate problem in Nevada. Right now, the only announced candidate against Sen. Jacky Rosen is Jim Marchant, a failed Secretary of State candidate in 2022 and a prominent election denier. (Dick Morris is also working for Marchant which, well, tells you everything you need to know.) If Marchant is the best Republicans can do, they are in deep trouble. But, Rosen should be vulnerable; Nevada is a swing state and is expected to be close at the presidential level.

5. Pennsylvania (D): The Keystone State is the biggest mover — upward — on my rankings this month for two reasons. First, state Sen. Doug Mastriano announced he would not run against Sen. Bob Casey in 2024, a major boost to Republicans’ chances — clearing the field for 2022 candidate David McCormick. Second, Mitch McConnell surprised me — and I think a lot of other people — by including Pennsylvania in the small handful of states Republicans were definitely planning to target in 2024. The race at the presidential level is going to be very close in Pennsylvania, which suggests this contest could be tight as well.

4. Arizona (Independent-held): There are two great uncertainties in this race. First, does Sinema run again. And, second, does controversial 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake run on the Republican side. Sinema is keeping her cards close to the chest. And Lake, inexplicably, continues to push debunked conspiracy theories about her 2022 loss even as she came to Washington and met with a handful of Republican Senators about the possibility of a 2024 bid. Not knowing what Sinema or Lake is going to do makes this race extremely difficult to handicap. But, no matter how their decisions shake out, expect it to be close.

3. Ohio (D): Republicans appear, again to be headed for an expensive primary fight in Ohio. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, is running and seeded his campaign with a $3 million loan during the first fundraising quarter. Wealthy car dealer Bernie Moreno, who ran briefly in the 2022 Senate race is back at it — and won the endorsement of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. Rep. Warren Davidson recently announced he wouldn’t run while Secretary of State Frank LaRose is expected to make a decision on the race by mid-summer. Awaiting the winner is Sen. Sherrod Brown, the last Democrat in statewide office in Ohio.

2. Montana (D): This is the quietest major Senate race out there. Everyone agrees that Sen. Jon Tester is in for the toughest race of his political career and everyone, mostly, agrees that National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines, a Montanan, will find a serious and credible candidate to take the Democrat on. But, no such candidate has emerged just yet although wealthy businessman Tim Sheehy appears to be the preferred pick. Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018, is also still considering the race and would emerge from the Trumpiest wing of the party.

1. West Virginia (D): Everyone is waiting to see what Manchin does. If he decides not to run — or runs for president in 2024, which is a possibility! — the seat is lost for Democrats. But, even if Manchin does run again, Democrats are in very rough shape here. Donald Trump — if, as expected, he is the Republican nominee for president — will win the state by somewhere around 40 points. Which means Manchin has to over-perform the top of the ticket by 40 points. Which has never happened in the history of Senate races. By the way, Gov. Jim Justice is the favorite to be the Republican nominee but there is a plausible scenario where he loses to Rep. Alex Mooney. Either one would be favored in a general election.