The flaw in the "Joe Biden should step aside" argument

Considering the possibilities.

(President Joe Biden)

David Ignatius of the Washington Post goes there this morning. In a piece headlined “President Biden should not run again in 2024,” Ignatius makes his case.

Here’s the key bit:

But I don’t think Biden and Vice President Harris should run for reelection. It’s painful to say that, given my admiration for much of what they have accomplished. But if he and Harris campaign together in 2024, I think Biden risks undoing his greatest achievement — which was stopping Trump.

Ignatius’ argument comes down to this:

1. Biden is too old to be president

2. Kamala Harris is too unpopular to be his replacement.

Nominating the Biden-Harris ticket then is too much of a risk, in Ignatius’ mind. As he writes: “Who is the best person to stop Trump? That was the question when Biden decided to run in 2019, and it’s still the essential test of a Democratic nominee today.”

I totally agree with that point! The central concern for Democrats in picking their nominee should be who can beat Trump in 2024. I just happen to think that Biden is, almost certainly, Democrats’ best option to do that.

In order to explain why, let me posit that these two things can simultaneously be true:

1. Large majorities of the public think Joe Biden is too old to be president

2. He is still best positioned among Democrats to beat Trump next fall.

Let’s start with the polling. And there is LOTS of it — almost all of which shows that this is a very close race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Which may not seem great! Especially if you are a Democrat deathly afraid of the prospect of another term for Trump.

But, remember you can’t compare Biden to the ideal, you have to compare him to the alternatives. (Or, in Biden’s words: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.”)

And, right now the most obvious alternative is Vice President Kamala Harris. While there is far less available polling on head to head matchups between Trump and Harris, what is out there is not encouraging for Democrats.

To be clear: I am not suggesting that Harris would lose to Trump. Campaigns are evolving creatures. All I am saying is that, right now, Harris appears to be less well positioned to beat Trump than does Biden.

She is also less popular than Biden nationally — which is saying something given that he remains mired in the low 40s in terms of job approval.

We can debate why that is — a less than impressive term as vice president, her status as the first woman of color as vice president etc. — but the reality remains: As of today, Harris would be a weaker candidate against Trump than Biden.

But, what if Harris loses the primary though? I mean, sure, that could happen. (I don’t think it’s likely.) But even if she did, the other possible candidates — Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom etc. — have never been tested on the national stage, and would have at least some learning curve. They would struggle to get better known, to establish a national brand.

Biden already has that national brand. It’s not perfect but I do think — as I have written — that there is, particularly among unaffiliated voters, a sense that Biden is a fundamentally decent human who is trying to do the right thing.

(It’s that sense, by the way, that makes me skeptical that Republicans will be able to sell the notion of Biden as deeply corrupt to the public. Which isn’t to say they won’t try. But, I digress.)

That Biden brand is, I believe, why he won in 2020. Because while voters may well have had their doubts about him, they saw him as, at heart, a good guy.

The exit poll from that race tells the story. Of the people who said a candidate who could unite the country was most important to them, Biden won 75% of the vote. Among voters who prized good judgment, Biden won 68% of the vote.

It’s my working belief that the dynamics of the 2020 election will be, broadly, replicated in 2024.

And, again, Biden’s brand helps him there. Trump is offering a dark and chaotic vision of what America is. Biden is the steady hand at the tiller. He may not be beloved but he is a known commodity. And don’t underestimate how much a known commodity can matter to voters.

Then there is this fact: Joe Biden has also run against — and beaten — Donald Trump before. As Hillary Clinton learned in 2016, Trump represents an asymmetrical threat as a presidential candidate; he attacks from weird angles, says stuff no other candidate would dream of and plays the game as if there are no rules.

That’s a harder thing to campaign against then you might think. Particularly if this is your first time around — and you are trying to introduce yourself to voters and get your sea legs under you.

While Biden’s 2020 victory is no guarantor of future results, it does suggest he and his team know how to run against Trump. Which is no small thing!

Add onto all of this the chaos that would be created if Biden stepped down. People like Ignatius seem to believe there would be a neat and orderly process by which a nominee is selected. I tend to think the opposite.

The field would be crowded with aspirants — and the primary could extend for months. (Meanwhile, Trump looks to be rolling to the Republican nomination with little competition.) The primary would — because it is a primary — push the candidates, including the eventual winner, to the ideological left. It would cost a ton of money. And it would distract from Ignatius’ stated main goal: To beat Trump.

Look. I get that Biden is a nominee with major drawbacks — most obviously his age. But to assume that there is a perfect (or better) candidate waiting in the wings to step in and replace him feels like folly to me.

In short: Biden remains the best matchup against Trump — even with his warts.