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This guy( Prof. Allan Lichtman) is the only one I trust to predict the next Presidential election for the reasons enumerated in your great interview with him. He has predicted almost all the Presidential elections right in the last 40 years. The only he missed( he did not REALY miss it) was in 2000(Al v Bush). We all know what happened then when the Supreme Court handed it to Bush.

I encourage everyone to get the Professor's Book titled "KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE "

He promised to say definitively who will win in November. Until then the Prof think Joe Biden is favored to win.

And Chris I am pleasantly surprised that landed an interview with him. Thank you for bringing his Professorial and brilliant mind to your subscribers

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And given the *true* “margin of error” that Lichtman points out in your excellent interview, Chris, and that NONE of the polls show a clear winner when that is factored in, his statement that “prognosticators” should abhor the polls is COMPLETELY true.

Now…… how many so-called “analysts” and “pundits” (sorry, but yourself included) will actually listen to what this seriously skilled man says, and choose NOT to report Every Single Time a poll comes out? I’m sure it must be like an alcoholic, choosing every day not to have a drink. It won’t be easy but…. he’s COMPLETELY right!

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Your last statement from Lichtman is our North Star and our guideline, from today to Election Day:

Lichtman: The biggest mistake political prognosticators make is “relying on the polls.”

That's it, right there. I gloss and scroll over all articles on the "latest poll"...polls are useless time wasters.

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Lichtman is right, as proven by what Family DNA Failure A.G. Sulzberger has told the reporters to do: sandbag Biden wherever possible for his sin of failing to bend the knee and kiss the ring of this born-to-his-failure proof that inherited wealth has to be gotten rid of. All the things-are-awful-for-Biden stories are based on "registered voters," the majority of whom in that demographic haven't seriously thought about the election yet. They refuse to look at the "likely voter" screen, composed of people who have thought about what their vote will mean; that screen has consistently trended in support of Biden ever since the SOTU.

The election of 2016 puts the complete failure of the over-educated, under-intelligent, otherwise-unemployable trust fund babies in the Press Corpse, whose essential worthlessness Chris Hayes described so well in his book "Twilight of the Elites".

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The NYT published a poll this morning that it, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College took among young, Black, and Hispanic voters in six swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There are two things that strike me about the article.

1. If you read only the beginning paragraph or two of the article and view the graph, you come away with the impression that Trump has a significant lead over Biden among these voters in four of four of the six states. The beginning paragraphs and the graph show the results for registered voters. However, if you read more of the article, the poll showed a difference among likely voters. “Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.” As you have said previously, Chris, if you’re going to look at the polls at all, you must pay attention to the details.

2. The complaints against Biden noted by the young, Black, and Hispanic voters were about the economy and the war in Gaza. While the stock market has been doing quite well, most of those voters don’t own stock or bonds. These voters see the economy through the increases in their food, gas, and housing prices. They may not have seen any wage gains. As for Gaza, many don’t seem to understand that Biden cannot force Netanyahu to call a cease-fire. While greatly benefiting from U.S. support, Israel is a sovereign nation. Completely withdrawing support for Israel would de-stabilize the region and would embolden Iran and its allies. So, indeed, how does Biden change these voters’ minds when “the economy” comes down to their personal pocketbooks and the horrors in Gaza are displayed in daily news feeds, regardless of where one consumes the news?

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Great insight - smart interview. Well done. This is a post to bookmark, and hopefully you have a commitment for a follow up interview/article for July or August.

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Professor Lichtman was a relatively new professor when I attended The American University from 1977 until my graduation in 1980. I met him a couple times and sat in on a lecture of his once. A very interesting man. His record is amazing! Thanks for sharing.

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There are a few clear wins or losses - for example Ukraine counts as a foreign policy success & Afghanistan was a foreign policy failure.

But most of the keys are subjective and increasingly difficult to define in the age of social media. 40% of the US think Trump has charisma, 40% think he’s a dangerous fool.

The answer will depend on where you get your news. An increasing number of voters get their “news” from social media.

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Chris…this was super interesting . I am going to pass it on to Simon Rosenberg at HOPIUM as he is always saying the same about the polls!

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But what about elections like 2016, when Hillary won the popular vote and Dumpy won the electoral college? Yes, I know the EC is what matters, but in my mind, at least, W's election in 2000 and Dumpy's win in 2016 will always have huge not-truly-legitimate asterisks next to them. And in 2022, the Republicans did win back the House, but not nearly by the margins everyone expected? I have to admit that I found the "keys" confusing.

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Thank you for sharing. Your "conversations" are always intelligent, interesting and thought-provoking.

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This was a terrific piece, i read it before i got into the "Biden is behind in the polls" headlines. whew!

I have to agree with some of the comments below, Dr. Lichtman's explanations notwithstanding, a lot, A LOT, of this does depend on what the electorate, many of whom do not pay attention to any news or get it from Fox and Newsmax, think. It makes it even more interesting to me that Trump, with absolutely no intellectual effort on his part, has correctly discerned how to attack Biden. He throws doubt on Biden's abilities in several of Lichtman's "key" areas. If Trump is able to color the narrative sufficiently, he will win. Now, i do think that Dr Lichtman would account for this in Aug... thus proving the power of his system, god help us all.

A

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Very interesting!!!

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Not to be that guy, but is predicting 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections really that impressive? Aside from 2016, the favored candidate won. And he got the other coin flip wrong, 2000.

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founding

Well Sam, if you compare his predictions with what the polls say, he wins by far. Just take 2016 as a more recent example. And Iam not saying everyone should jump on his Bandwagon, but I will take his predictions over any polls anytime

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founding

I wish I was as optimistic. As an old fart, I remember 1968 and I fear all of this unrest is going to have folks wishing for someone to "control" all these rowdies.

That is a perfect opening for an authoritarian.

Anyone know anyone that fits the bill?

Oh yea, there he is, giving speeches on the beach about a movie character that eats his friends.

The "progressives" and lefties might just cost the Dems the election.

Hahahaha, laugh laugh laugh,. All we need is 1 or 2 points movement and there we are.

I am fearful Biden can't keep his age off the TV long enough.

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wow!! Negativity!!

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founding

uh, yea.

you read the news lately?

extreme negativity.

I think Biden is doing a great job as president.

Sadly, most of the folks in the USA are more impressed with the sizzle than the steak.

Orange man got a huge crowd on the beach. Sure most of them left while he was still pooping in his diaper onstage.

I'm seeing trends here, and none of them are good.

When folks say they wish anyone else was running, that is NOT an endorsement of the incumbent.

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Well, I agree!!

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Great piece, but which one of the last 10 elections did he get wrong (and why)??

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founding

He got the 2000 election wrong. And we all know why. The Supreme Court awardEd it to Bush

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Great information a d perspective. Really interesting. As always, Chris, thanks for doing this kind of reporting and analysis!

I would be interested on hearing your thoughts on Canadian right-left wing politics as part of your broader analysis.

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